Blue Chip Bulldog - Latest Comments in TRADES For 7/14/09

Re: TRADES For 7/14/09

neophyte — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 21:40:30 -0000

Moo,

Thank you for your kind words. I am still learning and have come to the realization that under th ecurrent circumstances, th ebest way to position yourself is to be contrarian. As much as I am bearish and disgusted with the shenanigans, I have to admit that the learning curve has been very steep and quite expensive for me. I am still a NEOPHYTE!!

Wrt, to what I see unfolding, I am putting myself in th shoes of the MM's. How can I cause most pain. The way I see it, is take it up in the morning on the back of CIT bail out/JPM earnings and then bring it back down quickly to close the gap(possibly use the unemployment #s). The initial upside will bring in some more bulls and blow out bear stops placed today at the 935 -937 level. On the way down, over shoot the 902 mark maybe 898 to blow out ull stops and then close the day keeping people guessing about Friday. Taking this straight up, IMO will be too easy. My 2C.

Re: TRADES For 7/14/09

moo — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 09:08:17 -0000

I will try to answer you on this later today Steve....thanks.

Re: TRADES For 7/14/09

toad 3,7 — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 09:07:36 -0000

Amen to that. I sold 1 at 912.75 with 2 point stop.

Re: TRADES For 7/14/09

moo — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 09:07:20 -0000

NEW POST

Re: TRADES For 7/14/09

InthePink — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 09:03:21 -0000

morning Toad; no, I wish I was long from yesterday though!

I shorted a small bit from 914, but covered for 1.5; just a scalp play

Re: TRADES For 7/14/09

urszula — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 08:59:34 -0000

Alluring silver chart today:

http://www.kitco.com/charts...

Re: TRADES For 7/14/09

toad 3,7 — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 08:51:20 -0000

Morning Guys... Any ES position Pink?

Re: TRADES For 7/14/09

moo — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 08:48:08 -0000

Seems that 880-916 in S&P will offer much room for "orderly volatility" - alaidi

Re: TRADES For 7/14/09

InthePink — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 08:45:21 -0000

I've got nothing to say; except whammy

Re: TRADES For 7/14/09

shifthappens — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 08:42:19 -0000

Inflation Remains Tame at 0.7%, Even as Gas Prices Rise

http://www.cnbc.com/id/3191...

Re: TRADES For 7/14/09

moo — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 08:41:15 -0000

CPI as expected core +1.7% but the solid news is the NY Empire index at -0.6 from -0.9 vs exp -5. BAD NEWS FOR USD GR8 FOR RISK TRADE - alaidi

Re: TRADES For 7/14/09

katzo7 — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 08:17:41 -0000

Looks like a failure of the head & shoulder pattern. This could portend a potential continued up move.
http://www.bostonwealth.net...

Re: TRADES For 7/14/09

TraderStewie — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 03:57:57 -0000

Trading Is 99% Mental

http://theimpatienttrader.b...

Re: TRADES For 7/14/09

moo — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 02:09:29 -0000

How Do I Avoid Overtrading?
by dr. brett

source: http://traderfeed.blogspot....

A trader recently posed this question in a comment to a blog post: How can I avoid overtrading?

First, let's get definitions straight:

Overtrading typically has two connotations: trading size that is too large for one's portfolio (i.e., taking too much risk per trade) and trading too often (i.e., when an objective edge for the trade is not present).

Keeping metrics on your trading will tell you if your size is too large (you will have large P/L swings and drawdowns and large outlier gains and losses) and/or if you're trading too much (you will have more losing trades than winners and will tend to lose more on days in which you're trading more).

The antidote to overtrading--in both its forms--is rule-governance. Trading rules are what guide our position sizing and risk-taking, and they are what put us into markets and keep us out.

Many times, traders do not formulate their rules explicitly: they do not have clear and concrete formulas for position sizing, and they do not have hard-and-fast rules for when to enter and exit. It is a curious, but surprisingly common error to assume that discretionary trading means trading without rules. Discretion means that we employ real-time judgment in entering, exiting, and managing positions. Rules can guide that discretion, just as rules and plans may guide a quarterback who calls plays in a huddle and changes those calls at the line of scrimmage.

We avoid overtrading in position-sizing by limiting the losses on any single trade to a small, fixed fraction of portfolio value. We avoid overtrading in the number of positions we enter by limiting trades to those setups (entry criteria) that have demonstrated their profitability. For example, I will not take a short position in a market in which the cumulative NYSE TICK is making new highs; I won't trade at all if volume falls below threshold levels. These rules and guidelines keep us out of unprofitable situations, and they help us concentrate our capital in areas of greatest opportunity.

It is through repetition that rules turn into habits. This is a topic I'll be taking up in the new book. To avoid overtrading, you lay out your trading rules and then you rehearse and follow those rules so consistently that they become automatic. You can't expect to follow a discipline that you haven't clearly defined in the first place.

Re: TRADES For 7/14/09

S_Chicago — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 01:17:01 -0000

Moo, when you get a chance, I'm really interested in what you saw that told you that it was likely we were going up. Personally, I thought we were going to get a small bounce at the neckline yesterday, but until I saw how strong the action was, I thought we were going to go to 889 and head down hard. I saw a few divergences, but nothing that suggested a huge U-turn.

Spotting this kind of move is really what separates the exceptional traders, and the fact that you saw it (using technical analysis), UI Dezine saw it (Supply and Demand analysis) and Mortie (Elliott Waves) saw it using three different methods all kept me from going short and turned what could have been a painful lesson into a very profitable day.

So thanks very much...was there anything in particular that tipped you off?

Re: TRADES For 7/14/09

moo — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 00:18:50 -0000

State offers homebuyers $8,000 interest-free loans
July 14, 2009 03:03 PM
By Jenifer B. McKim, Globe Staff

First-time homebuyers eligible to receive an $8,000 tax credit from the federal government may have more good financial news.

Local borrowers with loans from the state's affordable housing bank, MassHousing, will now be able to use the $8,000 funds immediately to put toward their downpayment or closing costs on a home.

Governor Deval Patrick unveiled a program today that would allow homebuyers to receive an $8,000 state loan if they buy before Dec. 1. The loan would be interest-free if repaid by June 1, 2010. By that time, buyers would have been able to claim the $8,000 federal tax credit included in the federal Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008.

"These loans will both help prospective homebuyers achieve the comfort and stability of homeownership for their families and also stimulate the Commonwealth's economy through increased home sales,'' said Patrick.

In late May, the US Department of Housing and Urban Development said homebuyers could apply the tax credit toward new home purchases when financing through the Federal Housing Administration or through state and local Housing Finance Agencies.

About a dozen state financial agencies have developed their own bridge loans to help buyers access the first-time buyers tax credit up front to cover all or part of their downpayment, according to the National Association of Realtors. Under the MassHousing program, eligible borrowers must meet income limits, purchase a one- to four family home, and use it as a primary residence.

source: http://www.boston.com/busin...

Re: TRADES For 7/14/09

moo — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 00:05:45 -0000

You have great predictive powers neo! Please stay and share more of what you see coming!

Re: TRADES For 7/14/09

Ashok — Tue, 14 Jul 2009 23:56:06 -0000

It was Murphy's day today Rog....I'm down too on my FSLR......but I'm hanging on......this week seems like a rough one, with GOOg still to come Thursday and opex......better day tomorrow....

Re: TRADES For 7/14/09

moo — Tue, 14 Jul 2009 23:53:11 -0000

This from the Wall Street Journal will likely goose the markets even higher:

CIT Group Inc. and federal regulators were working to iron out details of an aid package Tuesday night after customers drained hundreds of millions of dollars from the lender, according to people familiar with the matter.

An outline of the plan began to emerge Tuesday as CIT's liquidity crisis worsened. Corporate customers drew down on their credit lines Monday and Tuesday. People familiar with the matter put the drawdowns at several hundred million dollars; one said a number discussed by the board ran as high as $775 million. That placed an added strain on the cash-strapped company and increased the ...

Re: TRADES For 7/14/09

shifthappens — Tue, 14 Jul 2009 21:15:28 -0000

Up 7.3% and 4.4% on TNA and TZA respectively.

Short both. They are converging right at the down 55% range.

Posted by Leonard The Monkey at tradinggoddess.com http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_s...

Added:
zerohedge: MSNBC video, Ratigan and Ritholtz dicuss Goldman

http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/

Comments are welcomed

Re: TRADES For 7/14/09

neophyte — Tue, 14 Jul 2009 20:26:31 -0000

Guess they did not follow thru today with the shenanigans as I had anticipated. Moo, looking at your chart it would appear that the H&S woud stll be in play as long as the SPX does not cross 928 and change. However, I am inclined towards the tape being taken to your target. This market will take no prisoner. Bulls and bears will be eaten. Bulls will probably be a bit sceptical looking at the H& S and I am fairly poistive that there will be some whipsaw in that zone to blow out stps. Full disclosure. Have been short thru this unbelievable rally. Though only 30%. Shoulda gone with my instincts. Now I will be long but will keep my shorts. Have learnt my lesson and never again without a stop loss!!

Re: TRADES For 7/14/09

chaunceyherbie — Tue, 14 Jul 2009 20:02:37 -0000

Thanks, moo.

Position size was 80%, so it was a drubbing. I gave a little less than 1/3 of the +12 % I made last week. On last week's trade, I was early in and early out and left 4% on the table. I agree with you that the $SPX could run up to the top of the trading range and decided not to ride my wrong trade all the way up. Intermediate term I am still bearish and look for the 815-805 are to get tested. So I will probably reload some short positions higher from here.

Lots of chart pattern people are clamoring about a head and shoulders top....we'll see.

Thanks for all your input.

Good

Re: TRADES For 7/14/09

Dutch — Tue, 14 Jul 2009 19:59:56 -0000

It needs to get to 45 so I can dump my shares break even! No joke! It's one of 3 stocks I still own (my Dad bought it more than 10yrs ago).

Re: TRADES For 7/14/09

Dutch — Tue, 14 Jul 2009 19:56:49 -0000

I just started watching VXX today, so I can't respond. I think we have a couple days to figure it out.

Re: TRADES For 7/14/09

toad 3,7 — Tue, 14 Jul 2009 18:44:30 -0000

You betcha! ;0)