If we should break 912 tomorrow with volume, the next stop should be 918 but the odds are very low for that technically, but psycologically very possible.
Every fund manager out there is going to be including INTEL now if not already!
A consolidation should occur here between 912 and 892.
I am expecting a 15-20 point correction before we spring higher to /ES 930 and then /ES 965
moo
· 4 months ago
I am considering a new indicator that may have some statistical merits:
Looking at daily net cash flows of bear and bull funds (offered by Rydex)
and
Looking at daily asset changes to bear and bull funds (offered by Rydex)
This will be a contrarian indicator meaning if net cash flow and asset changes are bullish then the market will fall that day and visa versa....
Today these funds were heavier bearish, and that means the market should rise....
The market often enough lets speculator know they are wrong and this is maybe one way of measuring it.
Let me know what you think of this idea....
Rosabarba
· 4 months ago
Sounds like a fine idea. Which funds to they cover?
A trader recently posed this question in a comment to a blog post: How can I avoid overtrading?
First, let's get definitions straight:
Overtrading typically has two connotations: trading size that is too large for one's portfolio (i.e., taking too much risk per trade) and trading too often (i.e., when an objective edge for the trade is not present).
Keeping metrics on your trading will tell you if your size is too large (you will have large P/L swings and drawdowns and large outlier gains and losses) and/or if you're trading too much (you will have more losing trades than winners and will tend to lose more on days in which you're trading more).
The antidote to overtrading--in both its forms--is rule-governance. Trading rules are what guide our position sizing and risk-taking, and they are what put us into markets and keep us out.
Many times, traders do not formulate their rules explicitly: they do not have clear and concrete formulas for position sizing, and they do not have hard-and-fast rules for when to enter and exit. It is a curious, but surprisingly common error to assume that discretionary trading means trading without rules. Discretion means that we employ real-time judgment in entering, exiting, and managing positions. Rules can guide that discretion, just as rules and plans may guide a quarterback who calls plays in a huddle and changes those calls at the line of scrimmage.
We avoid overtrading in position-sizing by limiting the losses on any single trade to a small, fixed fraction of portfolio value. We avoid overtrading in the number of positions we enter by limiting trades to those setups (entry criteria) that have demonstrated their profitability. For example, I will not take a short position in a market in which the cumulative NYSE TICK is making new highs; I won't trade at all if volume falls below threshold levels. These rules and guidelines keep us out of unprofitable situations, and they help us concentrate our capital in areas of greatest opportunity.
It is through repetition that rules turn into habits. This is a topic I'll be taking up in the new book. To avoid overtrading, you lay out your trading rules and then you rehearse and follow those rules so consistently that they become automatic. You can't expect to follow a discipline that you haven't clearly defined in the first place.
neophyte
· 4 months ago
Moo, this is a great blog. Lurking for a while. If past is a predictor, then IMHO, they will take this tape up to 910 by 3.58 and then gap it above the 912 line on the SPX. My. 2c, have nothing except for past shenanigans to back this up. Possibly most pain to bears who are waiting to short with stops above 912 .
moo
· 4 months ago
looking at the tape right now I'd say those are good odds. thx neophyte!
moo
· 4 months ago
thank you for that acknowledgement neo!
moo
· 4 months ago
love the icon btw.
neophyte
· 4 months ago
Thanks. Thanks n Thanks.
InthePink
· 4 months ago
I'm keeping your view in mind...
Dutch
· 4 months ago
*cheer* My sentiments EXACTLY!
moo
· 4 months ago
You have great predictive powers neo! Please stay and share more of what you see coming!
neophyte
· 4 months ago
Moo,
Thank you for your kind words. I am still learning and have come to the realization that under th ecurrent circumstances, th ebest way to position yourself is to be contrarian. As much as I am bearish and disgusted with the shenanigans, I have to admit that the learning curve has been very steep and quite expensive for me. I am still a NEOPHYTE!!
Wrt, to what I see unfolding, I am putting myself in th shoes of the MM's. How can I cause most pain. The way I see it, is take it up in the morning on the back of CIT bail out/JPM earnings and then bring it back down quickly to close the gap(possibly use the unemployment #s). The initial upside will bring in some more bulls and blow out bear stops placed today at the 935 -937 level. On the way down, over shoot the 902 mark maybe 898 to blow out ull stops and then close the day keeping people guessing about Friday. Taking this straight up, IMO will be too easy. My 2C.
moo
· 4 months ago
/ES 893.45 is -2 std dev away from the current VWAP price of 897.82
This is also my low estimate for the day, which we hit around 10:45 AM
The weekly VWAP price right now is 887.74
TexEx
· 4 months ago
Thanks, moo. I liked your view for today's market as well. Good stuff.
unset
· 4 months ago
GOOG - long July 440 bfly - looking for a opex target 440. ( might have to adjust for 430 pin )
moo
· 4 months ago
Quickly counting, we have crossed the VWAP price of /ES about 10 times already on the 1m....range day, chop.
I see no advantage in trading any index ETFs right now.
Rosabarba
· 4 months ago
Works for me. :-)
chaunceyherbie
· 4 months ago
$SPX major PNF potential support/resistance is 898, plus or minus .005% which is 893.51 to 902.49.
Daily Pivot is 892.47
$SPX hourly PNF potential support/resistance is 888, plus or minus .0015% which is 886.67 to 889.33
50 SMA is 911.69 20 SMA is 903.82 10 SMA is 895.86 200 SMA is 876.96
For those who missed my post on Sunday, there is a list of PNF potential support/resistance, open gaps, SMAs, Fibs at : http://www.flickr.com/photos/8258970@N03 (second chart down)
I'm not going to be sitting in front of the screen today. fwiw, I will probably cover my short position if we get to 889 to 892 today, and then look to short at a higher point later.
Tazman
· 4 months ago
Done for day...laying tile AGAIN.....holding lotto stuff in day account...have a buy order in for TSO @ 10.84.....
Good trading all....thanks Moo
InthePink
· 4 months ago
alrighty Tas, have a good day
Chuckles
· 4 months ago
Have a good one. See ya later.
shifthappens
· 4 months ago
Have a good day Taz, are those TL straight?
Dutch
· 4 months ago
I have 10.66 as support on TSO which it already bounced from
moo
· 4 months ago
thx Tas....tomorrow's another day ....
InthePink
· 4 months ago
I've got nothing to say; except whammy
toad37
· 4 months ago
Morning Guys... Any ES position Pink?
InthePink
· 4 months ago
morning Toad; no, I wish I was long from yesterday though!
I shorted a small bit from 914, but covered for 1.5; just a scalp play
toad37
· 4 months ago
Amen to that. I sold 1 at 912.75 with 2 point stop.
Guess they did not follow thru today with the shenanigans as I had anticipated. Moo, looking at your chart it would appear that the H&S woud stll be in play as long as the SPX does not cross 928 and change. However, I am inclined towards the tape being taken to your target. This market will take no prisoner. Bulls and bears will be eaten. Bulls will probably be a bit sceptical looking at the H& S and I am fairly poistive that there will be some whipsaw in that zone to blow out stps. Full disclosure. Have been short thru this unbelievable rally. Though only 30%. Shoulda gone with my instincts. Now I will be long but will keep my shorts. Have learnt my lesson and never again without a stop loss!!
moo
· 4 months ago
I think /ES 912.75 will be the high for the evening session as well as tomorrow.
I think it might be safe to put a short....but remember we have CPI number release tomorrow folks....
moo
· 4 months ago
Kinda wished I had posted on Tim's site earlier that I saw /ES 965 coming soon ....this bullish action will severely hurt the bears.
SteveInChicago (spsnomad)
· 4 months ago
Moo, when you get a chance, I'm really interested in what you saw that told you that it was likely we were going up. Personally, I thought we were going to get a small bounce at the neckline yesterday, but until I saw how strong the action was, I thought we were going to go to 889 and head down hard. I saw a few divergences, but nothing that suggested a huge U-turn.
Spotting this kind of move is really what separates the exceptional traders, and the fact that you saw it (using technical analysis), UI Dezine saw it (Supply and Demand analysis) and Mortie (Elliott Waves) saw it using three different methods all kept me from going short and turned what could have been a painful lesson into a very profitable day.
So thanks very much...was there anything in particular that tipped you off?
moo
· 4 months ago
I will try to answer you on this later today Steve....thanks.
shifthappens
· 4 months ago
This is a tough market and people will do what they decide to do no matter what anyone has to say about it, as indiduduale bias dictates.
Weeelllll that was fun, I can't feel my hands anymore...... there numb from so many days of setting on them, I must be a member of the club.... but no poor for it TG...
... everyone wants to short the heck out of this...probably a good reason not to right now. Looks like a good chance to build a shoulder possibly eh? so much for the doji it looks more like a hammer now on the daily SPX. Next stop up to the 50 SMA 911-12 area anyone?
Thanks Moo for all the info and post today, and everyone's input to the causeof making Mooooooo-Lah :-)
moo
· 4 months ago
912
amazing....
like I said 965 is now a no brainer....I think we will now hold this new level.
toad37
· 4 months ago
Bumping right up against trendline, went short 1 es with stop @ 914.
icetrader
· 4 months ago
Moo,
What price do you see the next correction holding at? 895? Pretty big move from 865 on the /ES.
moo
· 4 months ago
There is clearly major underlying strength in the market...I know now that 965 is a foregone conclusion.
I would think it to be very bullish to back dip 15 /ES points, but that might not happen now....
need to think this thru more....
icetrader
· 4 months ago
Thanks.
moo
· 4 months ago
1:44 PM CT - 25 stks up fm open, 15 dn; NASDAQ makes new hi for day; TICK positive; but more vol at bid than offer since 11 AM CT. - dr brett
moo
· 4 months ago
this is really a tough tape to read right now...
InthePink
· 4 months ago
ditto!
moo
· 4 months ago
If I were to use the Rydex contrarian indicator I would say we go UP from here....
let's see.
moo
· 4 months ago
EOD of day shenanigans.....
I'll wait till tomorrow. THis tape is just nuts!
Dutch
· 4 months ago
Today played out amazingly perfect in my opinion.
Keep it above 900. Keep GS propped up on lower volume. Keep Google propped up until the end of the week. It will be TOO PERFECT if we hit 913 30min to close on Friday then everyone dumps their shares and goes short into the weekend. Next week we have the whole solar eclipse thing and some magical date for the market to go short going into Aug/Sep. That would be surreal.
moo
· 4 months ago
as well as zero hedge's CHINA bubble pop starting on July 17th. but usually things that are too good to be true, usual are.
shifthappens
· 4 months ago
YES!!!!! I hope I'm not dreaming, please tell me it's true, I'm seeing the moon and stars now ;-)
Sentiment_Al
· 4 months ago
I'm in position to add some short positions at the close if I sense an opportunity. But that's 3 minutes away and all I sense now is random noise. I'm probably joining the Sitting On My Hands Club....
Euro/USD just broke a 3 day channel to the downside....break happened at 1.3945 or so.... If the break holds, Longer term we have a the 50 day ma at 1.3889 as support...has held the last few touches....if we break that level we have a good chance of going to 1.3739 first fib and 200 ma below at 1.3313 and fib at 1.3197
If the correlation between the dollar/equity market holds....a rise in the dollar will be bad for equities... specially oil/energy/commodities
I am short /E7 at 1.3940 with a stop a bit above the break..... risking a little for a possible big move.
FYI, Henrique Simoes is also short Euro/USD at the 1.3950 ...expecting the dollar to strengthen over the near term.
I am working on downloading Screencast so I can upload charts.
Hope evryone is hanging in there with all of the chop
shifthappens
· 4 months ago
Thanks Mo ;-)
InthePink
· 4 months ago
covered GS July 140 naked puts @ 0.35, +3.30
unset
· 4 months ago
TRADE ALERT Short /ES 901 SL 904
update - OUT 898 - can;'t hold too long today.
TonyMontana
· 4 months ago
TRADE ALERT:
Long ERX - Target 30
Chuckles
· 4 months ago
Hey, I saw you on TV last night.
InthePink
· 4 months ago
today might be a good day to enjoy beverages by the pool. By pool, I mean blow-up kiddie pool with hose water... and by beverages, I mean PBR....
Modab
· 4 months ago
LOL
toad37
· 4 months ago
That sounds like a good call.
toad37
· 4 months ago
What is that saying- "Never short a dull market?"
We'll see....
InthePink
· 4 months ago
Ha, never heard that one... man, today is ruff
toad37
· 4 months ago
Trade Alert
EQIX is at 61.8% retrace and top of channel. Shorting more here with very tight stop.
edit- stopped out.
Dutch
· 4 months ago
AFL at 31.33 is an interesting short, but I don't think its ready just yet...I want to see 908 on the S&P before I get short happy
moo
· 4 months ago
nice volume bounce from my /ES low of 893.5 area.....
It's interesting how different traders can trade different markets. For me, days like today, are so difficult so I stay completely out. Yet, there are some people like you that do well in a slow tape.
InthePink
· 4 months ago
well, I'll admit it's been tough for me today too; not fun trying to trade this oscillating market. I thought I posted my exit above, but I didn't: covered short @ 893.75.
Anyway, I really don't think we'll get anywhere today until the afternoon. I've almost paid more in commissions than in profits today, so I'll likely end flat in the p/l category today.
But, thanks for the compliment. Best of luck to ya!
I am getting a SPX 903 high but this market is very strange
InthePink
· 4 months ago
I'm looking at 904 ES?
katzo7
· 4 months ago
ES 904 equals SPX 907 right? I said 903 SPX Actual was 905.04 @ 9:35 am (so far) and a beautiful doji on the 5 minute. From now on, I will average my and your figure Into The Pink. LOL
Possible name? PinkKatz average?
InthePink
· 4 months ago
haha sounds good... on the money thus far
shifthappens
· 4 months ago
Good morning everyone,
Tazman
· 4 months ago
TRADE ALERT
CIT PM @ 1.58.....can this run today?.....Look at AIG last 2 days....
moo
· 4 months ago
I think so Tas....shorts are going to get killed....
toad37
· 4 months ago
Will be fun to watch, thanks Tas. I made a few bucks off AIG.
moo
· 4 months ago
VWAP on /ES daily is 898.3, weekly is 887.66 right now...
I think these are legit targets for the downside. Right now we are basically in the middle of my range estimate, so placing a trade here would not be prudent imo...
I'll be waiting for a better entry point at the extremes of my range....
InthePink
· 4 months ago
Goldman Sachs: the Chuck Norris of the financial world?
My friend SpringHeelJack just pointed out this to me. I read it when it was posted but maybe it is apropo right now.Presented are two differing views of what will happen soon in the market, finally a defined direction. Read Mortie's view based on a EW5 read on the DAY and then read Boston WM's response to applying head and shoulders with percentages of success. While I am presently positioned in a long term short, I would really like to have a final direction evident. http://www.bostonwealth.net/2009/07/12/morties-...
Chuckles
· 4 months ago
Good moorning all, I'll be here most of the day and at a trades screen too, woohooo. Is there any consensus on what gold is going to do today from where it is now? I'm still holding some UXG and have gained back much of what was lost and trying to decide to be happy with where we are now or look for more gain today.
moo
· 4 months ago
COST must hold 44....might be a great short if it cracks...put it on your radar folks....
moo
· 4 months ago
whiplash happening on GS right now...
Tazman
· 4 months ago
BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- Johnson & Johnson (JNJ:$57.9700,$0.2500,0.43%) reported moderately lower second-quarter earnings early Tuesday, due largely to increased generic competition for two of its top-selling prescription drugs and decreased demand for its consumer products.
moo
· 4 months ago
watching for basing ( a whole lot of chop w/ extreme volatility ) .... i'm liking the action in gold miners especially UXG
Tazman
· 4 months ago
COVERAGE REITERATED: Callaway Golf (ELY) reiterated by KeyBanc Capital Mkts. Reiterated rating Buy. 07/14 07:29 AM
One of my lotto....
katzo7
· 4 months ago
Huge, huge divergence between SPX and MACD on the 5 minute. And notable (stochs) on the 15 min. too!
moo
· 4 months ago
with the large expansion from yesterday we are likely in for a choppy day....
toad37
· 4 months ago
I'm comfortable to step aside until I see a fat pitch. I don't want to lose money in the chop. ;-)
Greg
· 4 months ago
I'm standing aside today as well as I did yesterday. Just don't feel enough of an edge.
toad37
· 4 months ago
I'm just playing small ball with 100 share lots. Holding some USO and SLV from yesterday. I did start building a small intermidiate position in SDS. At some point pretty soon I think we head to 825 or lower.
Greg
· 4 months ago
I'm not really even watching the action. The level of manipulation wears me out, so I trade for a few days, close out, wait for a good entry & give it another go. If you can trade all day, you just slap on a hedge, ride it up cut it loose, ride it down, wash rinse & repeat. I wonder why TK didn't hedge Sunday. I thought the charts were pretty obvious Monday would be a bounce.
moo
· 4 months ago
Great point Greg. I always like to keep it real simple....
toad37
· 4 months ago
That actually makes a lot of sense. I was just pondering all the manipulation when I read your reply. It's hard to trade when there is such blatant tampering with the natural flow of the market. If I didn't love trading so much I wouldn't even bother....
moo
· 4 months ago
business inventory number to be announced at 10am, but not really a big market mover...
moo
· 4 months ago
this is looking more and more like a range day
look at the sectors of the market: IEZ IEO IYE IYM ITA IAK IYJ IYT IHE IYH IYK QQQQ IYC IDU IYW IHI ITB IHF IYZ IAI IYF IYG IYR IAT
50-50 red/green
shifthappens
· 4 months ago
Altera (ALTR), Intel (INTC), Yum Brands (YUM), and AAR (AIR) are scheduled to report after the close
I think today will be very choppy, with range trade and oscillation around VWAP
InthePink
· 4 months ago
long 898.50
moo
· 4 months ago
Wells Fargo's Interesting NPL Deal
$.35 cents on the dollar it seems would be the price for these loans....
From National Mortgage News: As the mortgage and banking industries debate whether the PPIP program will work and whether a similar effort over at the FDIC will ever see the light of day, Wells Fargo & Co. recently (and quietly) sold a $600 million portfolio of mostly non-performing subprime loans. Or so we're told.
Late last week a source close to the transaction identified Arch Bay Capital of Irvine, Calif., as the winning bidder on the portfolio whose loans were originally funded by two mid-sized subprime wholesalers: Accredited Home Loans, and NovaStar Financial.
Arch Bay co-founder Steven Davis declined to comment on the purported sale to his firm, referring calls to his partner Shawn Miller who serves as Arch Bay's CEO. Mr. Davis didn't deny that the sale took place but he wouldn't confirm it either. Mr. Miller could not be reached for comment.
Meanwhile, one question the sale raises is this: How exactly did the publicly traded Wells wind up with so many crummy non-prime loans from these once highflying firms? Answer: I don't know and Wells isn't talking. A company spokesman said the bank's corporate policy is to not discuss its loan auctions.
Perhaps one reason the PPIP (Public-Private Investment Program) and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.'s 'Legacy Loan' sale initiative (involving whole loans, presumably residential and commercial mortgages) hasn't caught fire is 'sunshine,' that is, the concept of disclosure. If bankers and investment bankers use these government programs that means all the messy details of their crappy investments might see the light of day, which could anger shareholders — and maybe even board members who might lean toward being "activists."
The nice thing about the private non-performing loan market is that none of these messy details have to see the light of day, including the price paid. One banker told me that the 35 cents on the dollar that Arch Bay reportedly paid was twice what some hedge fund bidders were offering.
No matter how you do the math, Wells is going to take a nice hit on the sale, if it hasn't done so already. Will the public ever get wind of the NPL sale price (outside this story)? That's hard to say. The Securities and Exchange Commission requires that publicly traded companies disclose "material events" in their 10-Qs and Ks but when you have a mega bank the likes of Wells a $600 million loan auction might garner a sentence in the next earnings report, at best.
It is another reason to assume the PIPP program is not needed nor will it take off if private market deals are being worked out UNDER the radar rather than being exposed for all to see. I am guessing the banks do not want these prices exposed.
It also does bode well for the secondary markets if the log jam is starting to loosen and deals are getting done, albeit at a trickle. Any deal that gets done w/o the gov't "help" is a real positive for everything.
Hopefully more of these deals will start happening....
SteveInChicago (spsnomad)
· 4 months ago
Wondering if now might be a good time to put on a straddle. If the direction is up, Moo's target of 965 looks good (and is the 38.1% fib of the post-Lehman drop.) If it's down, we're heading into a Wave 3 of a Wave 3, and the Vix is relatively low...
moo
· 4 months ago
Great info Steve. Thanks.
InthePink
· 4 months ago
ok im flat now, staying out of this for a bit
SteveInChicago (spsnomad)
· 4 months ago
Deleted. Somehow my previous comment posted twice.
I was on there last night, great stuff Shift. Thanks
Tazman
· 4 months ago
TRADE ALERT
Out of CIT @ 1.52.....entered @ 1.58....falling fast...LOSS....
Turbo Tim
· 4 months ago
TAS, CIT is on the verge of BK. Remember GM from 27cents 93 cents in one hour. May happen when it gets to that price
Tazman
· 4 months ago
When it hit 1.70....should have made exit....
shifthappens
· 4 months ago
Business Inventories Fell 1% in May
Tazman
· 4 months ago
SQNM moving BIG AM....good volume @ 10:06.....one of my lotto....
katzo7
· 4 months ago
I have a question for you all. On my 15 minute SPX 500 chart, there is that spike right at the opening (9:30 am). This spike goes from 900.57 to 905.83 but is just that, a spike without any noticeable body on the candle. Is there a name for this candle? This is one I have never seen before.
InthePink
· 4 months ago
Looks like an inverted hammer to me, a sign of reversal
The Chinese Stock Bubble: Watch For "Critical Level Around July 17-27, 2009"
Chuckles
· 4 months ago
Anybody watching DELL here?
thyname
· 4 months ago
Hi Moo. I am eying SLW for an entry (long) it looks good in the daily chart and had a nice pullback to 15min trendline before reversing back up. What do you think?
moo
· 4 months ago
I can't give you direct advise on this Thy...but what I see for myself is a nice safe entry anywhere under 7.20 with a stop just under 7.0
remember to always make the market come to you first....at what you see as support / resistance levels and then adjust your position size to allow for your maximum loss.
Dutch
· 4 months ago
XLF has a lot of confluence at 11.77..that's the fib and the intersection of the hourly downtrend as well
InthePink
· 4 months ago
thanks for that info
InthePink
· 4 months ago
Intraday update: slow grind; view of small consolidation $ES_F channel, tgt of pivot http://bit.ly/Lw1EV $$
Ashok
· 4 months ago
Still holding FSLR from 145.266.......-3 1/2*768....... ( Sold 232 shares yday in AH @145.94....+ .67 )
ScubaSteve
· 4 months ago
Thoughts about GS short? Might have double topped from the June 5th top at same level. Falling away from the symmetrical triangle formed this morning also.
EDIT, I take that back. It hit that level this morning at the earnings open. I thought they were supposed to report AFTER HOURS today..wth?
shifthappens
· 4 months ago
Bernard Madoff Arrives at Federal Prison at Butner, North Carolina
Chuckles
· 4 months ago
I'm sitting on my hands at this point. I did sell a little EXK that had been in the red until today and got out making 75 bucks. Still waiting for UXG to come up another dime so I can extricate myself from that one at break even.
Added: I think we are still going to see deflation affect prices. It is my intention to buy PM's a little later at lower prices.
shifthappens
· 4 months ago
SPX 15min 3 doji red candle confirmation a lot of resistance..905area. Moo do you think we're headed to 893.5 soon?
moo
· 4 months ago
right now we are almost exactly at 50% replacement from today's high/low.....so the odds are technically 50-50 imo.
But looking at other sectors, there has been a definite rotation into "risk" and I think that will continue.
It amazes me that an upgrade from a single analyst can launch this market up, yet CIT problems with systemic consequences gets quickly swept under the rug along with "rumors" that they are now in "talks".
It just seems sooooo rigged to me and that is what I am playing. The rigged game.
shifthappens
· 4 months ago
Rigged is right for sure...thanks for the update.
moo
· 4 months ago
I think we visit the 905-909 area first, then we drop a min. of 15 points from there
Dutch
· 4 months ago
That's what I'm waiting for 908-913, I'm doing nothing until then unless I see flood gates open.
All I need are two decisive trades to work to get back to break even this year. I'm tired of dog paddling in the shallow end of the pool.
moo
· 4 months ago
I try to be that way most of the time Dutch....otherwise it is a statistical fact that, like the casino, this market will rob you bind.
Lately, I try to wait for major support/resistance levels before I consider a trade.
Dutch
· 4 months ago
Same I'm only trading EXTREMES. I'm down $10k on the year, the nickle and diming scalps is consistent but after all that work it only takes 1 or 2 trades the wrong way wipe it out. We've been building up to a sell off for a while now and we all know it is just a matter of time.
I pray I'm focused and ready to catch it as it happens and not bail on the trade early or stop out early. I need to catch it and hold for at least a day. I do that I'm back to green this year, I know it.
Hey Ed, yes, 20 Simple Moving Average, I see on my daily chart right now between the 10 SMA and the 20 SMA setting on SP line APX 900sih. We'll have to see how the day ends? but that's what I'm seeing now, maybe more up move today, tomorrow, (I'm kind of hoping) then load some shorts today or tomorrow? can you tell I'm 50/50 right now speculating ;-) GL
We have touched VWAP on /ES more times than I care to count....
Right now 898 seems to be holding....
shifthappens
· 4 months ago
Well....my thoughts are on the SPX daily chart forming a nice doji just in between the 10 SMA and the 20 SMA setting around 900 SP EOD. Any thoughts, comments, theories ???
toad37
· 4 months ago
What a snoozer... I'm looking over best ways to profit on a rising vix.
InthePink
· 4 months ago
i would buy some straddles?
toad37
· 4 months ago
Thanks, I'll look into that. Sounds interesting.
Dutch
· 4 months ago
Look at VXX itself...there's a clear downtrend line in the daily chart. This etf has only been around a few months, that trend breaks, just long it. These new ETF's are not as susceptible to the decay as the older ETFs (UYG, SKF, SRS, FAS, FAZ, etc). Those have been traded to death with 200mil shares a day and limited price movement.
VXX could easily go from 75-110 without much fan fare. It only has to do it once for people to catch on, THEN you'll see a wild chart like SKF's. Remember when FAS and FAZ were really shitty etfs at first? No volume, huge bid/ask spreads, then they got a sanely tradeable run as opposed to a complete gamble and now they've reversed split to give them a tradeable range using fewer shares again.
UPRO and SPXU have the same potential as VXX in my opinion.
toad37
· 4 months ago
Thanks Dutch. Ron at the chartpatterntrader.com mentioned the VXX and SPXU too. I'll start my research, thanks. I have a feeling I will go long VXX on that trend line break. :0)
Dutch
· 4 months ago
Same here. My DTO swing long was a great idea back at 65.90 support which I took in my sim account.
I'm liking the VXX idea better and will put real money to it, prob. 500 shares, but it has to start working for me very quickly because I can't afford to not have all powder dry and available.
moo
· 4 months ago
isn't that very illiquid Dutch?
Dutch
· 4 months ago
I just started watching VXX today, so I can't respond. I think we have a couple days to figure it out.
toad37
· 4 months ago
I hear you, on all accounts...
toad37
· 4 months ago
so that would be a bull straddle, where I buy the call and buy the put of the same strike/expiration? August 30's perhaps?
InthePink
· 4 months ago
yeah that sounds about right, haven't looked at the strikes on those
toad37
· 4 months ago
I imagine you would want to find the strike that has a similar bid for both the call and the put; but I'll research.
InthePink
· 4 months ago
i think that's right, and i think a strangle is when the strikes are otm
toad37
· 4 months ago
Cool, thanks...
InthePink
· 4 months ago
looks like I missed some good comments by Moo while I was away...
Major vwap oscillation right now, but I would think the odds are more favorable to jumping higher, amybe 904-905 range like Moo stated. Not too sure though. Currently in a long ES position in the 898s, got a close stop though.
InthePink
· 4 months ago
scratch that, flat now for 0
Modab
· 4 months ago
The Euro Break has be tilting towards a break down and not a melt up...well see... Im short the Euro and staying away from /ES for now.
InthePink
· 4 months ago
thanks for that info....
moo
· 4 months ago
VWAP on /ES just cracked the 898 line....
InthePink
· 4 months ago
short ES @ 897.50
InthePink
· 4 months ago
averaged in higher short @ 899.xx, but stopped out for 3 tick loss
zstock
· 4 months ago
GS fib 61 is 171, I think it will get there eventually INTC could go either way on earnings--AH
InthePink
· 4 months ago
long ES 898
moo
· 4 months ago
all eyes on IWM and TZA, TNA
why?
These will be the "tell" of major market movements soon imo for the simple fact that CIT is the MAJOR lender to small businesses.
The gov't is not taking a position of "rescue" here which is also very alarming, but considering LEH was not rescued either and certainly CIT is a smaller version, I guess CIT could be let to fall without mercy. The gov't has learned quite a bit tho since then.....with trillion of $$ only patching the economy together I think there might be a "wake up" now in any reactionary rescuing.
The order of magnitude of small businesses doing business with CIT is 1 million, mind you.
Most small business can't exist without a line of credit to operate and the recent announcement by CIT asking for money via TARP and not gettin any according to the FDIC only makes this picture darker. Darker for CIT, darker for the small businesses and darker for the political environment since many of the 1 million companies may fail and add significantly toward the increasing unemployment situation.
No wonder Obama is saying more unemployment is to be expected....by end of year. Preping the crowds for bad news....
According to Bloomberg, the company stated that its failure, if it comes would 'put 760 manufacturing clients at risk of failure and “precipitate a crisis” for as many as 300,000 retailers.' The FDIC, according to Bloomberg "is concerned that standing behind CIT debt would put taxpayer money at risk because the company’s credit quality is worsening, people familiar with the regulator’s thinking, who declined to be identified because the talks are private."
This will certainly be the reason for the next leg down and IWM, TNA, TZA will be the harbinger of the bad news.....watching it move and use it as a predictive indicator. Also watch OTM options on IWM for speculative option volume swells for further confirmation.
Modab
· 4 months ago
Thanks for the info Moo,
I will be watching them for clues.
shifthappens
· 4 months ago
Thanks for the heads up...
Chuckles
· 4 months ago
moo, would this be a catalyst to send PM's throught the roof or just the opposite?
Fubar1951
· 4 months ago
15,781 vol in the Jan 40's today. Is that the type of spike you are talking about?
Modab
· 4 months ago
The price action is making me crazy....Tried to go short at /ES 899...was up a bit and then got stopped out at /ES 900.75....
Going to leave it alone for the rest of the day.
Covered 1/2 of my short Euro/USD postion....left the other half...worst case I break even on the whole trade if it reverses.....now a zero risk trade with good upside. I will let it run.
Oil made a little run into its close (short covering) and then fell right off. Not sure if this market is going to be able to find its legs without energy....
I am also very suspicious with Intel....So many traders (on cnbc) today very bullsih and long INTC that is makes me kinda skeptical. Going to wait for Wednesday to see how things play out...hoping we see the 908-913 level...it holds and I can take a nice sized short there with minimal risk.
Mauldin has a good piece out this week. It says that every $1 in additional taxes removes $3 from the private sector. Also every $1 in additional government spending removes $1 from the private sector. We ain't gonna no where for a while.
shifthappens
· 4 months ago
yup.. there about to tax the you know what out of us....do you have a link?
I was hoping to get in before EOD on a trade, but I honestly don't have anything to go on...including my instincts. sooooooo
sittiing on hands
no trades today...Ahhh.
InthePink
· 4 months ago
I'm thinking SPX might finally roll over; not confident though. Hazmei says need some good sell programs to tip the scales here
toad37
· 4 months ago
It will roll over when Government Sachs wants it to roll over.
Chuckles
· 4 months ago
moo, I'm trying to understand the results of a CIT failure in the different timeframes. Would it be likely to create panic in the short term and cause a flight to safety (like PM's) and then after the dust settles actually cause deflation and falling prices across the board (including PM's) when more folks are out of work? Anyone else with an opinion please share it too.
moo
· 4 months ago
I think all prices would deflate further. Much further. Including PMs. Anything "systemic" in character will rival the LEH melt down....
moo
· 4 months ago
very interesting. IWM moving STRONGER than TNA in relative terms......on the 1m unless.
I am soooo happy I did not trade today seeing this tape.....
read earlier comments by Dutch.
Dutch
· 4 months ago
TY Sir!
moo
· 4 months ago
I now watch IWM, TNA, TZA on a 3 pane screen.
They must synchronize with each others expected movements. If not, question your assumptions.
Dutch
· 4 months ago
I always have IWM, TNA/TZA and XLF up at all times.
Whoa vix dumped at the close...again. lol hilarious.
toad37
· 4 months ago
Missed CSIQ yesterday, up 10% today :(
Sentiment_Al
· 4 months ago
Nope, didn't work. Tried a low-ball offer near the close, and the market moved toward the offer, but no deal. I'm officially a member of the Sitting On Hands Club!
Chuckles
· 4 months ago
Congratulations, welcome aboard!!!
InthePink
· 4 months ago
well that was an aggravating trading session; I'd love to see them run it up to 904s before 3:15 futures close though
Modab
· 4 months ago
I hope you stayed in and enjoyed the pop once the futures opened.....
Im flat and thankful for it......
Well see what tomorrow brings......
moo
· 4 months ago
Thanks to everyone for sharing comments today.
Good evening to you and yours.
moo
shifthappens
· 4 months ago
Good evening to you and yours too.
Chuckles
· 4 months ago
Good evening moo, Thanks for all of you input today. See you tomorrow (or maybe later this evening).
moo
· 4 months ago
seems like the AHs trading is very active right now...anyone know why?
ARJ
· 4 months ago
Intc ER?
moo
· 4 months ago
INTC is a market bellwether....and TNA is surging right now because of it. Let's see if it can hold....
shifthappens
· 4 months ago
Intel Reports Profit of 18 Cents a Share, Excluding One-Time Items; Stock Halted in After-Market Hours
Man, there are some bears hurting right about now.
moo
· 4 months ago
The /ES is at 910 ALREADY!
Chuckles
· 4 months ago
I hope none of the moovers were short without a stop or had stops gapped.
Where's Pink, I think he may have been long and gotten a gift here.
shifthappens
· 4 months ago
I'm so happy I didn't ditch my HPQ. I was thinking about doing it today.. even thought I should have sold it yesterday. Right now HPQ is up 2.18% AH, what a market eh? ;-)
moo
· 4 months ago
INTEL now at > 18
WoWoW
Dutch
· 4 months ago
It needs to get to 45 so I can dump my shares break even! No joke! It's one of 3 stocks I still own (my Dad bought it more than 10yrs ago).
chaunceyherbie
· 4 months ago
TRADE ALERT I tightened up on the amount I was willing to draw down on and got stopped out of my short $SPX AH for loss -4.1% Ouch. :-((
moo
· 4 months ago
sorry to hear that CH....
I'm trust your position size was enough to sustain the -4.1% adequately?
chaunceyherbie
· 4 months ago
Thanks, moo.
Position size was 80%, so it was a drubbing. I gave a little less than 1/3 of the +12 % I made last week. On last week's trade, I was early in and early out and left 4% on the table. I agree with you that the $SPX could run up to the top of the trading range and decided not to ride my wrong trade all the way up. Intermediate term I am still bearish and look for the 815-805 are to get tested. So I will probably reload some short positions higher from here.
Lots of chart pattern people are clamoring about a head and shoulders top....we'll see.
Thanks for all your input.
Good
shifthappens
· 4 months ago
Sorry to hear Chauncey...
chaunceyherbie
· 4 months ago
Thanks, SH. Appreciate the sentiment.
It could have been different. I could have been right yesterday to go long or sit on my hands. I was wrong. I could have been more wrong to hold tomorrow if it runs up to 930 and 965 eventually like moo thinks it will. I got in too early and paid for it.
shifthappens
· 4 months ago
Thanks for your candor and all that you share, have a good evening, and will see you tomorrow...
Ashok
· 4 months ago
It was Murphy's day today Rog....I'm down too on my FSLR......but I'm hanging on......this week seems like a rough one, with GOOg still to come Thursday and opex......better day tomorrow....
moo
· 4 months ago
!! TRADE ALERT !!
TZA
cost: 23.09
no stop
ChickenLittle
· 4 months ago
There with ya big blue, going the SDS route though. Liking my chances that we finish the month down and break the streak of four in a row.
SDS
cost: 55.40
moo
· 4 months ago
This from the Wall Street Journal will likely goose the markets even higher:
CIT Group Inc. and federal regulators were working to iron out details of an aid package Tuesday night after customers drained hundreds of millions of dollars from the lender, according to people familiar with the matter.
An outline of the plan began to emerge Tuesday as CIT's liquidity crisis worsened. Corporate customers drew down on their credit lines Monday and Tuesday. People familiar with the matter put the drawdowns at several hundred million dollars; one said a number discussed by the board ran as high as $775 million. That placed an added strain on the cash-strapped company and increased the ...
moo
· 4 months ago
State offers homebuyers $8,000 interest-free loans July 14, 2009 03:03 PM By Jenifer B. McKim, Globe Staff
First-time homebuyers eligible to receive an $8,000 tax credit from the federal government may have more good financial news.
Local borrowers with loans from the state's affordable housing bank, MassHousing, will now be able to use the $8,000 funds immediately to put toward their downpayment or closing costs on a home.
Governor Deval Patrick unveiled a program today that would allow homebuyers to receive an $8,000 state loan if they buy before Dec. 1. The loan would be interest-free if repaid by June 1, 2010. By that time, buyers would have been able to claim the $8,000 federal tax credit included in the federal Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008.
"These loans will both help prospective homebuyers achieve the comfort and stability of homeownership for their families and also stimulate the Commonwealth's economy through increased home sales,'' said Patrick.
In late May, the US Department of Housing and Urban Development said homebuyers could apply the tax credit toward new home purchases when financing through the Federal Housing Administration or through state and local Housing Finance Agencies.
About a dozen state financial agencies have developed their own bridge loans to help buyers access the first-time buyers tax credit up front to cover all or part of their downpayment, according to the National Association of Realtors. Under the MassHousing program, eligible borrowers must meet income limits, purchase a one- to four family home, and use it as a primary residence.
All Comments
If we should break 912 tomorrow with volume, the next stop should be 918 but the odds are very low for that technically, but psycologically very possible.
Every fund manager out there is going to be including INTEL now if not already!
A consolidation should occur here between 912 and 892.
I am expecting a 15-20 point correction before we spring higher to /ES 930 and then /ES 965
Looking at daily net cash flows of bear and bull funds (offered by Rydex)
and
Looking at daily asset changes to bear and bull funds (offered by Rydex)
This will be a contrarian indicator meaning if net cash flow and asset changes are bullish then the market will fall that day and visa versa....
Today these funds were heavier bearish, and that means the market should rise....
The market often enough lets speculator know they are wrong and this is maybe one way of measuring it.
Let me know what you think of this idea....
RYNVX
RYSPX
RYURX
RYOCX
RYAIX
RYTNX
RYTPX
RYVYX
RYVNX
RYCVX
RYCWX
RYMDX
RYMHX
RYRHX
RYMKX
RYSHX
RYRSX
RYIRX
RYAWX
RYZAX
RYBHX
RYAVX
RYWAX
RYAZX
RYKIX
RYBIX
RYOIX
RYCIX
RYSIX
RYEIX
RYVIX
RYFIX
RYHIX
RYIIX
RYLIX
RYPMX
RYHRX
RYRIX
RYTIX
RYMIX
RYPIX
RYUIX
RYGBX
RYJUX
RYHGX
RYILX
RYSBX
RYWBX
RYMBX
RYMFX
RYSRX
RYFOX
RYGHX
RYEPX
RYMLX
RYQMX
RYMSX
RYEUX
RYJSX
RYFHX
http://www.rydex-sgi.com/products/mutual_funds/...
http://decisionpoint.com/TAcourse/RydexRatio.html
by dr. brett
source: http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2008/08/how-do-i...
A trader recently posed this question in a comment to a blog post: How can I avoid overtrading?
First, let's get definitions straight:
Overtrading typically has two connotations: trading size that is too large for one's portfolio (i.e., taking too much risk per trade) and trading too often (i.e., when an objective edge for the trade is not present).
Keeping metrics on your trading will tell you if your size is too large (you will have large P/L swings and drawdowns and large outlier gains and losses) and/or if you're trading too much (you will have more losing trades than winners and will tend to lose more on days in which you're trading more).
The antidote to overtrading--in both its forms--is rule-governance. Trading rules are what guide our position sizing and risk-taking, and they are what put us into markets and keep us out.
Many times, traders do not formulate their rules explicitly: they do not have clear and concrete formulas for position sizing, and they do not have hard-and-fast rules for when to enter and exit. It is a curious, but surprisingly common error to assume that discretionary trading means trading without rules. Discretion means that we employ real-time judgment in entering, exiting, and managing positions. Rules can guide that discretion, just as rules and plans may guide a quarterback who calls plays in a huddle and changes those calls at the line of scrimmage.
We avoid overtrading in position-sizing by limiting the losses on any single trade to a small, fixed fraction of portfolio value. We avoid overtrading in the number of positions we enter by limiting trades to those setups (entry criteria) that have demonstrated their profitability. For example, I will not take a short position in a market in which the cumulative NYSE TICK is making new highs; I won't trade at all if volume falls below threshold levels. These rules and guidelines keep us out of unprofitable situations, and they help us concentrate our capital in areas of greatest opportunity.
It is through repetition that rules turn into habits. This is a topic I'll be taking up in the new book. To avoid overtrading, you lay out your trading rules and then you rehearse and follow those rules so consistently that they become automatic. You can't expect to follow a discipline that you haven't clearly defined in the first place.
this is a great blog. Lurking for a while. If past is a predictor, then IMHO, they will take this tape up to 910 by 3.58 and then gap it above the 912 line on the SPX. My. 2c, have nothing except for past shenanigans to back this up. Possibly most pain to bears who are waiting to short with stops above 912 .
Thank you for your kind words. I am still learning and have come to the realization that under th ecurrent circumstances, th ebest way to position yourself is to be contrarian. As much as I am bearish and disgusted with the shenanigans, I have to admit that the learning curve has been very steep and quite expensive for me. I am still a NEOPHYTE!!
Wrt, to what I see unfolding, I am putting myself in th shoes of the MM's. How can I cause most pain. The way I see it, is take it up in the morning on the back of CIT bail out/JPM earnings and then bring it back down quickly to close the gap(possibly use the unemployment #s). The initial upside will bring in some more bulls and blow out bear stops placed today at the 935 -937 level. On the way down, over shoot the 902 mark maybe 898 to blow out ull stops and then close the day keeping people guessing about Friday. Taking this straight up, IMO will be too easy. My 2C.
This is also my low estimate for the day, which we hit around 10:45 AM
The weekly VWAP price right now is 887.74
I see no advantage in trading any index ETFs right now.
Daily Pivot is 892.47
$SPX hourly PNF potential support/resistance is 888, plus or minus .0015% which is 886.67 to 889.33
50 SMA is 911.69
20 SMA is 903.82
10 SMA is 895.86
200 SMA is 876.96
For those who missed my post on Sunday, there is a list of PNF potential support/resistance, open gaps, SMAs, Fibs at :
http://www.flickr.com/photos/8258970@N03 (second chart down)
I'm not going to be sitting in front of the screen today. fwiw, I will probably cover my short position if we get to 889 to 892 today, and then look to short at a higher point later.
Good trading all....thanks Moo
I shorted a small bit from 914, but covered for 1.5; just a scalp play
http://theimpatienttrader.blogspot.com/
Short both. They are converging right at the down 55% range.
Posted by Leonard The Monkey at tradinggoddess.com http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_snjfdN54pHQ/Sl0jrXbAa...
Added:
zerohedge: MSNBC video, Ratigan and Ritholtz dicuss Goldman
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/
Comments are welcomed
I think it might be safe to put a short....but remember we have CPI number release tomorrow folks....
Spotting this kind of move is really what separates the exceptional traders, and the fact that you saw it (using technical analysis), UI Dezine saw it (Supply and Demand analysis) and Mortie (Elliott Waves) saw it using three different methods all kept me from going short and turned what could have been a painful lesson into a very profitable day.
So thanks very much...was there anything in particular that tipped you off?
http://slopeofhope.com/2009/07/short-ief-or-lon...
... everyone wants to short the heck out of this...probably a good reason not to right now. Looks like a good chance to build a shoulder possibly eh? so much for the doji it looks more like a hammer now on the daily SPX. Next stop up to the 50 SMA 911-12 area anyone?
Thanks Moo for all the info and post today, and everyone's input to the causeof making Mooooooo-Lah :-)
amazing....
like I said 965 is now a no brainer....I think we will now hold this new level.
What price do you see the next correction holding at? 895? Pretty big move from 865 on the /ES.
I would think it to be very bullish to back dip 15 /ES points, but that might not happen now....
need to think this thru more....
let's see.
I'll wait till tomorrow. THis tape is just nuts!
Keep it above 900. Keep GS propped up on lower volume. Keep Google propped up until the end of the week. It will be TOO PERFECT if we hit 913 30min to close on Friday then everyone dumps their shares and goes short into the weekend. Next week we have the whole solar eclipse thing and some magical date for the market to go short going into Aug/Sep. That would be surreal.
but usually things that are too good to be true, usual are.
http://www.bostonwealth.net/2009/07/14/spx-500-...
Euro/USD just broke a 3 day channel to the downside....break happened at 1.3945 or so.... If the break holds, Longer term we have a the 50 day ma at 1.3889 as support...has held the last few touches....if we break that level we have a good chance of going to 1.3739 first fib and 200 ma below at 1.3313 and fib at 1.3197
If the correlation between the dollar/equity market holds....a rise in the dollar will be bad for equities... specially oil/energy/commodities
I am short /E7 at 1.3940 with a stop a bit above the break..... risking a little for a possible big move.
FYI, Henrique Simoes is also short Euro/USD at the 1.3950 ...expecting the dollar to strengthen over the near term.
I am working on downloading Screencast so I can upload charts.
Hope evryone is hanging in there with all of the chop
update - OUT 898 - can;'t hold too long today.
Long ERX - Target 30
I saw you on TV last night.
We'll see....
EQIX is at 61.8% retrace and top of channel. Shorting more here with very tight stop.
edit- stopped out.
commodities are looking good.
Anyway, I really don't think we'll get anywhere today until the afternoon. I've almost paid more in commissions than in profits today, so I'll likely end flat in the p/l category today.
But, thanks for the compliment. Best of luck to ya!
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_dXsrF48G300/SlwZ5OD5R...
note the blue/red support/resistance lines on the left....and their corresponding volume signatures.
source: http://mgtrader.blogspot.com/2009/07/10-day-per...
Thinking "successful trades" for today....
lets get em!
GL everyone
I'm listening to Chariots of Fire to get me psyched for the trading session
financials and small caps are not confirming this "up" move....
RF @ 4.03.....Three green bars and building?
http://www.bostonwealth.net/wp-admin/post.php?a...
http://www.bostonwealth.net/2009/07/14/spx-500-...
oh and good morning guys!
www.inthepinktrading.com
I said 903 SPX
Actual was 905.04 @ 9:35 am (so far) and a beautiful doji on the 5 minute.
From now on, I will average my and your figure Into The Pink. LOL
Possible name? PinkKatz average?
CIT PM @ 1.58.....can this run today?.....Look at AIG last 2 days....
I think these are legit targets for the downside. Right now we are basically in the middle of my range estimate, so placing a trade here would not be prudent imo...
I'll be waiting for a better entry point at the extremes of my range....
http://blog.stocktwits.com/2009/07/market-previ...
http://twitpic.com/abmmz/full
http://www.bostonwealth.net/2009/07/12/morties-...
I'll be here most of the day and at a trades screen too, woohooo.
Is there any consensus on what gold is going to do today from where it is now? I'm still holding some UXG and have gained back much of what was lost and trying to decide to be happy with where we are now or look for more gain today.
One of my lotto....
And notable (stochs) on the 15 min. too!
wears me out, so I trade for a few days, close out, wait for a good
entry & give it another go. If you can trade all day, you just slap on
a hedge, ride it up cut it loose, ride it down, wash rinse & repeat.
I wonder why TK didn't hedge Sunday. I thought the charts were pretty
obvious Monday would be a bounce.
look at the sectors of the market:
IEZ IEO IYE IYM ITA IAK IYJ IYT IHE IYH IYK QQQQ IYC IDU IYW IHI ITB IHF IYZ IAI IYF IYG IYR IAT
50-50 red/green
Direxion ETFs Dominate Winners and Losers
http://www.thestreet.com/story/10542299/1/direx...
I think today will be very choppy, with range trade and oscillation around VWAP
$.35 cents on the dollar it seems would be the price for these loans....
From National Mortgage News:
As the mortgage and banking industries debate whether the PPIP program will work and whether a similar effort over at the FDIC will ever see the light of day, Wells Fargo & Co. recently (and quietly) sold a $600 million portfolio of mostly non-performing subprime loans. Or so we're told.
Late last week a source close to the transaction identified Arch Bay Capital of Irvine, Calif., as the winning bidder on the portfolio whose loans were originally funded by two mid-sized subprime wholesalers: Accredited Home Loans, and NovaStar Financial.
Arch Bay co-founder Steven Davis declined to comment on the purported sale to his firm, referring calls to his partner Shawn Miller who serves as Arch Bay's CEO. Mr. Davis didn't deny that the sale took place but he wouldn't confirm it either. Mr. Miller could not be reached for comment.
Meanwhile, one question the sale raises is this: How exactly did the publicly traded Wells wind up with so many crummy non-prime loans from these once highflying firms? Answer: I don't know and Wells isn't talking. A company spokesman said the bank's corporate policy is to not discuss its loan auctions.
Perhaps one reason the PPIP (Public-Private Investment Program) and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.'s 'Legacy Loan' sale initiative (involving whole loans, presumably residential and commercial mortgages) hasn't caught fire is 'sunshine,' that is, the concept of disclosure. If bankers and investment bankers use these government programs that means all the messy details of their crappy investments might see the light of day, which could anger shareholders — and maybe even board members who might lean toward being "activists."
The nice thing about the private non-performing loan market is that none of these messy details have to see the light of day, including the price paid. One banker told me that the 35 cents on the dollar that Arch Bay reportedly paid was twice what some hedge fund bidders were offering.
No matter how you do the math, Wells is going to take a nice hit on the sale, if it hasn't done so already. Will the public ever get wind of the NPL sale price (outside this story)? That's hard to say. The Securities and Exchange Commission requires that publicly traded companies disclose "material events" in their 10-Qs and Ks but when you have a mega bank the likes of Wells a $600 million loan auction might garner a sentence in the next earnings report, at best.
It is another reason to assume the PIPP program is not needed nor will it take off if private market deals are being worked out UNDER the radar rather than being exposed for all to see. I am guessing the banks do not want these prices exposed.
It also does bode well for the secondary markets if the log jam is starting to loosen and deals are getting done, albeit at a trickle. Any deal that gets done w/o the gov't "help" is a real positive for everything.
Hopefully more of these deals will start happening....
Out of CIT @ 1.52.....entered @ 1.58....falling fast...LOSS....
Short EQIX @ 68.64
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/07/chinese-s...
The Chinese Stock Bubble: Watch For "Critical Level Around July 17-27, 2009"
remember to always make the market come to you first....at what you see as support / resistance levels and then adjust your position size to allow for your maximum loss.
( Sold 232 shares yday in AH @145.94....+ .67 )
EDIT, I take that back. It hit that level this morning at the earnings open. I thought they were supposed to report AFTER HOURS today..wth?
I did sell a little EXK that had been in the red until today and got out making 75 bucks. Still waiting for UXG to come up another dime so I can extricate myself from that one at break even.
Added: I think we are still going to see deflation affect prices. It is my intention to buy PM's a little later at lower prices.
But looking at other sectors, there has been a definite rotation into "risk" and I think that will continue.
It amazes me that an upgrade from a single analyst can launch this market up, yet CIT problems with systemic consequences gets quickly swept under the rug along with "rumors" that they are now in "talks".
It just seems sooooo rigged to me and that is what I am playing. The rigged game.
from there
All I need are two decisive trades to work to get back to break even this year. I'm tired of dog paddling in the shallow end of the pool.
Lately, I try to wait for major support/resistance levels before I consider a trade.
I pray I'm focused and ready to catch it as it happens and not bail on the trade early or stop out early. I need to catch it and hold for at least a day. I do that I'm back to green this year, I know it.
http://screencast.com/t/T1m14Gymwtw
zero hedge is one of my favorite blogs....
Right now 898 seems to be holding....
VXX could easily go from 75-110 without much fan fare. It only has to do it once for people to catch on, THEN you'll see a wild chart like SKF's. Remember when FAS and FAZ were really shitty etfs at first? No volume, huge bid/ask spreads, then they got a sanely tradeable run as opposed to a complete gamble and now they've reversed split to give them a tradeable range using fewer shares again.
UPRO and SPXU have the same potential as VXX in my opinion.
I'm liking the VXX idea better and will put real money to it, prob. 500 shares, but it has to start working for me very quickly because I can't afford to not have all powder dry and available.
otm
Major vwap oscillation right now, but I would think the odds are more favorable to jumping higher, amybe 904-905 range like Moo stated. Not too sure though. Currently in a long ES position in the 898s, got a close stop though.
INTC could go either way on earnings--AH
why?
These will be the "tell" of major market movements soon imo for the simple fact that CIT is the MAJOR lender to small businesses.
The gov't is not taking a position of "rescue" here which is also very alarming, but considering LEH was not rescued either and certainly CIT is a smaller version, I guess CIT could be let to fall without mercy. The gov't has learned quite a bit tho since then.....with trillion of $$ only patching the economy together I think there might be a "wake up" now in any reactionary rescuing.
The order of magnitude of small businesses doing business with CIT is 1 million, mind you.
Most small business can't exist without a line of credit to operate and the recent announcement by CIT asking for money via TARP and not gettin any according to the FDIC only makes this picture darker. Darker for CIT, darker for the small businesses and darker for the political environment since many of the 1 million companies may fail and add significantly toward the increasing unemployment situation.
No wonder Obama is saying more unemployment is to be expected....by end of year. Preping the crowds for bad news....
According to Bloomberg, the company stated that its failure, if it comes would 'put 760 manufacturing clients at risk of failure and “precipitate a crisis” for as many as 300,000 retailers.' The FDIC, according to Bloomberg "is concerned that standing behind CIT debt would put taxpayer money at risk because the company’s credit quality is worsening, people familiar with the regulator’s thinking, who declined to be identified because the talks are private."
This will certainly be the reason for the next leg down and IWM, TNA, TZA will be the harbinger of the bad news.....watching it move and use it as a predictive indicator. Also watch OTM options on IWM for speculative option volume swells for further confirmation.
I will be watching them for clues.
would this be a catalyst to send PM's throught the roof or just the opposite?
Going to leave it alone for the rest of the day.
Covered 1/2 of my short Euro/USD postion....left the other half...worst case I break even on the whole trade if it reverses.....now a zero risk trade with good upside. I will let it run.
Oil made a little run into its close (short covering) and then fell right off. Not sure if this market is going to be able to find its legs without energy....
I am also very suspicious with Intel....So many traders (on cnbc) today very bullsih and long INTC that is makes me kinda skeptical. Going to wait for Wednesday to see how things play out...hoping we see the 908-913 level...it holds and I can take a nice sized short there with minimal risk.
GL
http://www.cnbc.com/id/31910123
Healthcare Bill Includes Tax on $1 Million+ Earners
http://www.cnbc.com/id/31910123
http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/john_maul...
sittiing on hands
no trades today...Ahhh.
I'm trying to understand the results of a CIT failure in the different timeframes. Would it be likely to create panic in the short term and cause a flight to safety (like PM's) and then after the dust settles actually cause deflation and falling prices across the board (including PM's) when more folks are out of work?
Anyone else with an opinion please share it too.
Anything "systemic" in character will rival the LEH melt down....
I am soooo happy I did not trade today seeing this tape.....
read earlier comments by Dutch.
They must synchronize with each others expected movements. If not, question your assumptions.
Whoa vix dumped at the close...again. lol hilarious.
Im flat and thankful for it......
Well see what tomorrow brings......
Good evening to you and yours.
moo
Thanks for all of you input today. See you tomorrow (or maybe later this evening).
http://news.ino.com/headlines/?newsid=689969697...
http://www.cnbc.com/id/31908010
Up around 9.5%
Where's Pink, I think he may have been long and gotten a gift here.
WoWoW
I tightened up on the amount I was willing to draw down on and got stopped out of my short $SPX AH for loss -4.1% Ouch. :-((
I'm trust your position size was enough to sustain the -4.1% adequately?
Position size was 80%, so it was a drubbing. I gave a little less than 1/3 of the +12 % I made last week. On last week's trade, I was early in and early out and left 4% on the table. I agree with you that the $SPX could run up to the top of the trading range and decided not to ride my wrong trade all the way up. Intermediate term I am still bearish and look for the 815-805 are to get tested. So I will probably reload some short positions higher from here.
Lots of chart pattern people are clamoring about a head and shoulders top....we'll see.
Thanks for all your input.
Good
It could have been different. I could have been right yesterday to go long or sit on my hands. I was wrong. I could have been more wrong to hold tomorrow if it runs up to 930 and 965 eventually like moo thinks it will. I got in too early and paid for it.
TZA
cost: 23.09
no stop
SDS
cost: 55.40
CIT Group Inc. and federal regulators were working to iron out details of an aid package Tuesday night after customers drained hundreds of millions of dollars from the lender, according to people familiar with the matter.
An outline of the plan began to emerge Tuesday as CIT's liquidity crisis worsened. Corporate customers drew down on their credit lines Monday and Tuesday. People familiar with the matter put the drawdowns at several hundred million dollars; one said a number discussed by the board ran as high as $775 million. That placed an added strain on the cash-strapped company and increased the ...
July 14, 2009 03:03 PM
By Jenifer B. McKim, Globe Staff
First-time homebuyers eligible to receive an $8,000 tax credit from the federal government may have more good financial news.
Local borrowers with loans from the state's affordable housing bank, MassHousing, will now be able to use the $8,000 funds immediately to put toward their downpayment or closing costs on a home.
Governor Deval Patrick unveiled a program today that would allow homebuyers to receive an $8,000 state loan if they buy before Dec. 1. The loan would be interest-free if repaid by June 1, 2010. By that time, buyers would have been able to claim the $8,000 federal tax credit included in the federal Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008.
"These loans will both help prospective homebuyers achieve the comfort and stability of homeownership for their families and also stimulate the Commonwealth's economy through increased home sales,'' said Patrick.
In late May, the US Department of Housing and Urban Development said homebuyers could apply the tax credit toward new home purchases when financing through the Federal Housing Administration or through state and local Housing Finance Agencies.
About a dozen state financial agencies have developed their own bridge loans to help buyers access the first-time buyers tax credit up front to cover all or part of their downpayment, according to the National Association of Realtors. Under the MassHousing program, eligible borrowers must meet income limits, purchase a one- to four family home, and use it as a primary residence.
source: http://www.boston.com/business/ticker/2009/07/s...
http://www.bostonwealth.net/2009/07/15/violatio...
http://www.cnbc.com/id/31919975
http://www.kitco.com/charts/livesilver.html