I can't tell if he's napping or terminal. What do you think?
brinkley
· 5 months ago
Deadbeat. Asleep on the job ; ).
urszula
· 5 months ago
There's no sign of rigor mortis but he doesn't look like he's going to be getting up in a hurry.
Chuckles
· 5 months ago
Its amazing how fast they can jump up when they awaken but you are correct in that it looks like he is sleeping deeply. Shhhhhhh
urszula
· 5 months ago
It's been a few years since I've been face-to-face with a bull. Last one was an Aberdeen Angus and, boy, he was a fast mover.
shifthappens
· 5 months ago
resting
shifthappens
· 5 months ago
;-) L I see..
urszula
· 5 months ago
Hey, hey! Nice shot.
Modab
· 5 months ago
Thats a great Pic.... Great trading today brinkley...C'ya tomorrow. Have a great night!!
DrNo
· 5 months ago
Super call oN POT !You are suggesting the top is in and we are headed lower?You have been correct in being bullish all the way up,what does your crystal ball tell you about here and the EOM games?
brinkley
· 5 months ago
Thanks-- it had a super pattern to point the way. Definitely the trade of the day, and hit my target! Thought it might consolidate or bounce a bit before another leg down. Tells you something, perhaps.
Ashok
· 5 months ago
well done miss.....!!
moo
· 5 months ago
that look like what I should be doing more of....restin' and relaxin'
Thanks for you POT call btw brinkley (that's money in my pocket btw) and thanks for visiting again!
brinkley
· 5 months ago
Glad you were able to profit from it, Moo-- and I'm enjoying my visits, btw.
MyLifeMyTrade
· 5 months ago
Those who shorted POT on Thursday must be feeling like Ben Bernake relocated the Fed printing presses to your backyard.
moo
· 5 months ago
FTSE closing coming soon folks....be aware here.....same as yesterday so far...a big bounce....FTSE closes and then we swooned much lower. Might be the same pattern today....
chaunceyherbie
· 5 months ago
I saw the $SPX very ST oversold on all time frames right around the 200 SMA when I covered 1/2 of short positions and applied hedges on the other half. Don't know what it is about Wednesday's, but they are good percentage up days. I have my doubts if they will reverse positive today but I do have a small position play on that. The 60 Min PNF chart has a price objective of 850.20 (although I don't usually expect it to make the price objective projection, it more often does than on the daily chart).
ARJ
· 5 months ago
Any reasons would cause this to happen
moo
· 5 months ago
On a relative basis, Europe is weaker into their closing than what our markets are showing right now....I think odds are we may go down a bit more...
moo
· 5 months ago
Why buy FAS end of day?
This market was sold off to make premiums much cheaper for this Friday's option expiry which is quadruple witching day.
When do those options get unwound? Tomorrow after a gap up I think....
There was quite a fight today despite the tape ending up flatish, but to me this was just the setup for a high amplitude day tomorrow.
There was a small change in the McClellan Oscillator Wednesday, which I believe is suggesting a large price move.
It will be a huge whip. First UP sharply, then DOWN sharply.
Today, the QLD for example showed us a change of only +1.5% yet the high to low %change was closer to 4%. Tomorrow's low/high % change numbers on all the indexes will be much more dramatic than this imo.
Let's see what actually happens tho....
My Trading Plan: I will not be holding any trade tomorrow for more than a few minutes at a time. I will look to $TICK to get me in and out of trades when exhaustive spikes get above +/- 1200 area. I will likely also use stochastic[15,9,9] to time my trades. I plan to exit FAS on the first $TICK > +1000 to +1200 range.
good night to all.
Ashok
· 5 months ago
Moo....would you take a moment to explain your preference for stochastics( Full? )15,9,9.....would appreciate very much..
moo
· 5 months ago
A colleague shared this with me as a possible tool to enter and exit trades. Does not work for all stocks however and I am new in using it for this purpose...so far it has been good, but not great. I have seen divergences between what I want and what really happens but nothing is perfect...
Ashok
· 5 months ago
Thaks for the reply, moo......I personally use the fast stochastics 14,3....seems to be a little more sensitive to the short term.....
Sentiment_Al
· 5 months ago
Thanks, Moo.
MyLifeMyTrade
· 5 months ago
Wow .. did someone notice FAS in AH - as we neared the end of AH i.e. 8pm ET.. FAS really caught a bid.. I am guessing that some folks seeing the futures melt up wanted to get on the train.. FAS printed as high as 8.78 - almost 1.5% up from the close.. WOW..
moo
· 5 months ago
"Big moves often occur when major investment markets become simultaneously extended, with large pool operators moving money from one category to another. Would it be difficult to imagine money flowing into oversold markets (US dollar and US bonds) and out of overbought markets, an international disturbance prompting a flight to so-called quality? (US stock market up +40% in three months, crude oil up over +100% in a few short months)."-- bcara
Ashok
· 5 months ago
IWM, XLF, IYR .....all broken on the dailies( supports @ about 7/8 % lower ).....not buying TNA today.....possibly SRS....but a lot lower from here, if I can...I believe it will present us with that opportunity.....watching the 20 day with fast stoks14,3 channel...poised to break down.....$TICK 60 day EMA below the zero so far....all morning
chaunceyherbie
· 5 months ago
$SPX sellers could only hold it below the 200 SMA for 20 minutes. Good possibility we test that level again today. Watch the volume on that test, if it happens. Watch 91.28 SPY as a very ST support before the 200 SMA.
Have a good evening everyone, I hope you all had a good day? fwiw: looking at the daily SPX chart this evening it looks like we've made the smallest of little red DOJI to day. However this is below that 911.70 (CH number) so what can we expect tomorrow? GS cl 139.80 -4.36 BAC 12.29 -44. Have a good evening.
Sentiment_Al
· 5 months ago
OpEx time for me means get out of the way. Unless something clearer appears in the charts, I'll be content to watch the wiggles and be glad those aren't my stops getting tagged.
Ashok
· 5 months ago
$TICK 60 day EMA breaking down from upward slope....but still above zero.....
Chuckles
· 5 months ago
Your SRS trade looks like a home run.
Ashok
· 5 months ago
Thanks Chuks....lucky again....guess my entry was good......
Chuckles
· 5 months ago
I'm not sure luck had a lot to do with it. You were patient and were rewarded.
Modab
· 5 months ago
Has been a great day...Thanks fellow bloggers. I think the VOX has the ability of going much higher but probably wont happen in a straight line. This week is going to be very telling of what is to come for the next few weeks. Buying the dips has proven to be the right thing to do over the past 3 months but I have a feling the tide has turned and selling the run ups should have a higher rate of success.
Sitting in all cash right now...what a great feeling!!!! Has been a great last few days and dont want to overtrade. Will wait for the right set up.
moo
· 5 months ago
congrats!
Modab
· 5 months ago
Thanks guys....This blog has proven to be of great help to my psychology as a trader. THANKS EVERYONE!!
Ashok
· 5 months ago
way to go, Modab !
Modab
· 5 months ago
Just went short /cl at 70.47 with a stop above the day high......I think it is going down from here. Looking to sell July USO call spread also.
EDIT: Still in short and added a little more at 70.60. Stop at 70.81 EDIT: Cover 1/2 at 70.39 and holding other half. Free trade now. EDIT: Covered 1/4 at 70.20 Holding last 1/4 EDIT: Covered last 1/3 at 70.18
I still believe we will see oil trading at 60 before we break thigh recent highs of 73..... might take a longer term position later on...but flat for now.
moo
· 5 months ago
ATTENTION GOLD BUGS
Miscellany June 17th, 2009 11:29 am TIPS are taking a pummeling in response to the better than expected inflation data. The break even spread in 10 years touched 207 last week. It is currently around 176.
Mortgages as measured by FNMA 5s are 4 ticks tighter to swaps. Up in coupon is outperforming modestly.
There has been chunky buying from Asian investors,services and the Federal Reserve.
Money managers and originators are better sellers.
chaunceyherbie
· 5 months ago
91.28 is the downtrend line on the SPY one minute chart....volume looking respectable on last 10 minute bounce.
urszula
· 5 months ago
What a night! Everything should be okay now. I'll just observe for a while to make sure. Gold & silver now up a little, I see.
chaunceyherbie
· 5 months ago
What happened???
urszula
· 5 months ago
IDK. My platform was fine but Firefox was misbehaving.
moo
· 5 months ago
remember folks: nothing obvious is usually painlessly profitable.
moo
· 5 months ago
RATES TO REMAIN LOW FOR EXTENDED PERIOD:
Here is an informative article from Craig Torres of Bloomberg news which discusses how the FOMC may use the statement which it will release at the conclusion s meeting next week that rates will indeed remain low for an “extended period”.
Bloomberg News and FOMC by John Jansen
greekgoodies
· 5 months ago
Have some chores to do; be back later, happy trading, make some MOO-La!
moo
· 5 months ago
sold FAS at 5.54 for a nickel...
BigSteve
· 5 months ago
Um, I think you mean 8.54?
Anyway I have some July FAZ $5 calls that I bought last week. Up about 60% as of now. Moved my stops to ensure profit (except for the risk of a gap event), but does anyone have any thoughts as to what value FAZ might hit between now and July exp?
moo
· 5 months ago
fat fingers...sry ... yes I did. thanks.
Modab
· 5 months ago
Sold MSFT July 23 Puts I bought yesterday for 35% gain. Not sure if the reversal is coming today...but a hard sell off into the close and a gap down tomorrow in the AM would be a great long entry in my opinion. Will see how the cards play out today.
Chuckles
· 5 months ago
Good morning everybody, I should be here most of the day. Good luck to everyone today.
moo
· 5 months ago
S&P Downgrades 18 US Banks, Junking 5, Amid Industry Review
Tazman
· 5 months ago
No trading today....stopped out of most LOTTO's...need to step back and get in correct mind......sold most in day account....left $1600 on the table between yesterday and today.....need to review...move on...and not make mistake AGAIN...
Good trading today...
Ashok
· 5 months ago
great objectives Tas.....
Ashok
· 5 months ago
Thought: Don’t underestimate your power to change yourself……don’t overestimate your power to control others.....
Bond Market Close June 16 2009 June 16th, 2009 4:22 pm
Prices of Treasury coupon securities have continued the recent resurgence which has seen them climb from the deepest recesses of financial hell to levels which approach a modicum of respectability.
There is not one salient reason to which I can point as a clear explanation of the price gains. The Federal Reserve certainly created some shorts on the street with its buyback.I would wager that some day trading types would have used that as a chance to be short on the offered side with the hope that after a healthy advance the market would retreat. Alas,we can quote the poet regarding the best laid plans of mice and men ( they often go astray).
I think that the alacrity of the rally has fooled some in retail land. One had a very narrow window in which to buy 4 percent 10 year notes or 30 year bonds in the 4.80s. I think the price action has transformed some institutional shorts into day trading shorts as they hoped for a back up which never came and were forced to cover.
The stock market has grown quite wobbly and is experiencing some disorientation. Perhaps maybe a bout of vertigo. I suspect that there is a pile of money exiting stocks for the safety of the Treasury market.
And the economic fundamentals remain bond friendly. PPI was better than expected and capacity utilization was at an all time low. Housing starts were better than expected but they should be after the peak to trough decline they suffered.
The yield on the 2 year note declined 3 basis points to 1..19 percent. The yield on the 3 year note slipped 4 basis points to 1.79 percent. The yield on the 5 year note fell 4 basis points to 2.68 percent. The yield on the 7 year note fell 5 basis points to 3.32 percent. The yield on the 10 year note dropped 5 basis points and rests at 3.66 percent. The Long Bond was the star of the day as its yield fel 7 basis points to 4.49 percent.
The 2year/10 year yield narrowed 2 basis points to 247 basis points.
The 2year/5year/30 year butterfly is 32 basis points.
moo
· 5 months ago
Pre-market Nas is up half a point but the other indexes are not participating.
NinjaPenguin
· 5 months ago
Good morning to Moo and everyone!
Futures selling pretty hard now. We broke the overnight support around 905.75 in /ES.
moo
· 5 months ago
good morning!
moo
· 5 months ago
FDX earnings today could be a market mover....
moo
· 5 months ago
NEW YORK, June 17 (Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures turned higher on Wednesday as some investors searched for beaten-down shares following the selloff of the last two days and set their sights on May inflation data and quarterly results from package delivery company FedEx Corp (FDX.N).
* FedEx results, due before the bell, may shed light on the strength of the economic recovery. Also before the open, the May Consumer Price Index is due at 8.30 a.m. (1230 GMT).
* "The market is still trying to decide whether the selloff of the last few days is reaching an end," said Rick Meckler, president of investment firm LibertyView Capital Management in New York.
* S&P 500 futures SPc2 rose 3.10 points and were above fair value, a formula that evaluates pricing by taking into account interest rates, dividends and time to expiration on the contract. Dow Jones industrial average futures DJc2 gained 22 points, while Nasdaq 100 NDc2 futures added 3.75 points. (Reporting by Ellis Mnyandu; Editing by Padraic Cassidy)
moo
· 5 months ago
Big miss from FDX. Dow futures dropped 20pts immediately.
moo
· 5 months ago
My /ES low has already been met....
moo
· 5 months ago
/TF just breached 500 on the FDX news....not good.
good morning,any thoughts on the extreme vol. on XLF in PM this am?
moo
· 5 months ago
.I will be looking carefully at the banking sector. IF bankers and Obama do not see eye to eye we will quickly see their power demonstratated by sharply pushing stocks much lower than the /ES 900 level today. Over time, if they are in bed together, we will see a serious rally and sound bites that make it seem that Obama has saved the day. The bankers stole the money and have the power. Make no mistake about that. Let's see how they use it to get their interests further satisfied.
henshaw
· 5 months ago
scratch that was glitch in platform,
MyLifeMyTrade
· 5 months ago
I had posted a EUR-USD update around 10:30pm PT last night:
calling for a run up to 1.3930 (Tuesday's intra-day high), which is what happened. What surprised me though was that I did not expect such a strong rejection at that level. Here is where we are this morning:
After strong rejection all along the European session, EUR/USD has started melting up again during US pre-market. What all this tells me is that Europeans are selling their currency and when the US folks wake up and start trading, they start doing the same.
Jokes apart, looks like we will sport a nice sized bounce today .. RIMM is up nicely in pre-market, up $1 trying to stay afloat above $80 mark... Oil is down a buck... but then we have oil inventories report coming out today which should be bullish for oil (given that we are on the verge of recovery - LOL). I will most likely go long OIH June 105 calls for a quick scalp play with a tight stop.
moo
· 5 months ago
Looks like FDX had revenue decline b/c of lower volumes with a significant lowering of shipping weight. All spelling a continuing slowdown.
S&P Cuts Huntington Bancshares Inc. Rtg To BB+ From BBB; Off Watch; Outlk Neg half a minute ago from TweetDeck
S&P Cuts U.S. Bancorp Rtg To A+ From AA; Off Watch; Outlk Stable less than a minute ago from TweetDeck
S&P Cuts Comerica Inc. Rtg To A- From A; Off Watch; Outlk Neg 1 minute ago from TweetDeck
S&P Cuts Regions Financial Corp. Rtg To BBB+ From A; Off Watch; Outlk Neg 2 minutes ago from TweetDeck
S&P Cuts Wells Fargo & Co. Rtg To AA- From AA; Off Watch; Outlk Neg
Modab
· 5 months ago
Good morning everyone,
Should be an interesting day....Good trading!!
moo
· 5 months ago
Two Fincl Industry Groups Generally Supportive Of Obama Plan
shifthappens
· 5 months ago
Good morning everyone... Moo, thanks for the morning insights.
moo
· 5 months ago
watching $RUT to hold 500...
DJ
· 5 months ago
I see TL support at 492
moo
· 5 months ago
fari on tweeter: DD and UPS about to roll-over -- great charts -- thnx to FDX (& Fred Smith) warning, Reg FD: our Phoenix Traders are long July Puts on both
moo
· 5 months ago
Brinkley, any further thoughts on POT? at your leisure thx
Rosabarba
· 5 months ago
I think she's more connected to SoH, but she just put this up: "POT short fast approaching my target, have just covered 1/2 and tightened stop."
I'm revising my prediction on EXK to 1.44 instead of 1.64. Remarks?
moo
· 5 months ago
I may add to my EXK at that level...but too soon to say
greekgoodies
· 5 months ago
I may join you; let the moosters know ...........?
moo
· 5 months ago
MACD didn’t confirm the high last week and now has rolled over from a lower top.
ARJ
· 5 months ago
Moo, do you plan to play FAS in case it'd move down to low 8 in conjuction w/ a slight breach of SPX 900? Thanks!
moo
· 5 months ago
there was a piercing below 900 a major support level, which to me usually means it will go lower further than 900 today, unless this is a hammer. The mini bullish reversals, for me, are opportunities to make $...as I anticipate bounces along the psych. level of 900.
ARJ
· 5 months ago
Thank you for your insight!
I'm seeing SPX a sort of wedge break down (dropping along the low channel line). This formation at this stage should be bullish one. If it's going to do a overthrow (push below the channel), then I'd view it a very lgood ong trade opportunity.
ARJ
· 5 months ago
I'd view market performed neutral to positive in first 45 min (in lieu of strong bear control lately). What do you think?
Rosabarba
· 5 months ago
The broader market might not be down that much, but if XLF is going to press on with new lows, I'm not too keen to get long. XLE, previous stalwart, is also taking it in the shorts, so to speak.
shifthappens
· 5 months ago
SPX Res around 911.61 range so far...lets see?
chaunceyherbie
· 5 months ago
Mornin' all.
$spx 200 SMA 906.04 .....about 2 points below
urszula
· 5 months ago
Good morning, Gang Am having problems with Firefox. Am going to shut everything down, do a complete scan. This takes about 45 mins. See you later. Good trading to Everyone!
shifthappens
· 5 months ago
:-(
chaunceyherbie
· 5 months ago
covered 50% of short $SPX position at 906 (+10.5% from last Tuesday via SDS) wrote calls against other 50% SDS
shifthappens
· 5 months ago
Crude-Oil Supplies Fell by 3.9 Million Barrels Last Week, More Than Expected...Gasoline Inventories Rose (story developing (CNBC)
Sentiment_Al
· 5 months ago
ERY: buy @ 20.90
Energy stocks cutting through supports.
moo
· 5 months ago
FAS (long trade, for a scalp)
cost: 8.49
Modab
· 5 months ago
Looking for a market reversal....will look for tech plays as energy/commodities should lag. This may be the second shake out before the move up but I am still waiting for clues. Went long in the am and took quick profits....
Modab
· 5 months ago
I also went long SOHU at $63.30. Got the recommendation from Brinkley and the TA confirmed the entry. Looks like it want to go green.
chaunceyherbie
· 5 months ago
Bought SSO small position $SPX 905 selling intensity seems to waning
TenYear
· 5 months ago
long MGM 6.22
chaunceyherbie
· 5 months ago
PNF Hourly PNF above is 915.50 20 SMA 923.21 I will let go of my hedges above 915.50. Best case for me will be a back test of the 20 SMA
Sentiment_Al
· 5 months ago
Stopped out of ERY. Out of everything, actually, and going to take a break to restore frame of mind.
Rosabarba
· 5 months ago
VNO particularly weak among the weak IYR components. If you expect more REIT downside, best pick off the weaklings.
Ashok
· 5 months ago
Paper trade....selling the GOPFB....GOOG June 420 calls....for 9.70....10 contracts....expires Friday....2 days from today EDIT 9:13 am.....now asking $8.30
chaunceyherbie
· 5 months ago
Selling premium at swing points can be mucho moolah. Got to like the rapid time decay if it goes in your direction. Good luck.
Ashok
· 5 months ago
I checked this option above ....closed at 7.90......thats a $1.80 gain for today.......just on paper though.....
shifthappens
· 5 months ago
Obama and his team of advisors will officially unveil the long-awaited regulatory reforms plan this afternoon 12:50 pm ET. CNBC ADDED: Obama's prepared speach http://www.cnbc.com/id/31408177
As others have pointed out, the headline is a bit misleading. The fact the AUG50 VIX call is such a hot ticket could also be explained as a hedge rather than a directional play.
Dutch
· 5 months ago
Ashok, how about TNA through 28 and the S&P to 919
Ashok
· 5 months ago
focusing on SRS now....a lil bit lower..if I can
also TNA is close to its HOD and SRS close to LOD.....
moo
· 5 months ago
no trade.
moo
· 5 months ago
S&P Says US To Keep AAA Ratings In Near TermLast update: 6/17/2009 12:09:54 PM
Dutch
· 5 months ago
If this Obama announcement sucks wind, GS short from its 142.16 fib will be my play. It bounced from the 139.35 fib earlier (my order didn't fill by .03)
heads up on this idea: option call premiums being brought down before a huge rally on expiry day from this /ES 900 level... just a thought.
thelonewolf
· 5 months ago
What does that imply ?
moo
· 5 months ago
well, luck is for the unprepared I guess....just posting info as I see it as a piece of the puzzle. No single datum has 100% certainly in telling us what might happen, but pulling in the pieces may paint a mosaic that we might develop an edge or recognize a recurrent pattern.
Modab
· 5 months ago
I like your train of thought. I thought they would kill most of the call premiums last week and so the big money would not be called out on the calls they had sold. If we see further selling a long trade going into friday could be a great risk to reward trade with OTM calls.
moo
· 5 months ago
Benchmark CMBS Bond Tightens 100BPs; Derivative Index Tighter Too
thelonewolf
· 5 months ago
Would anyone go long Q's at this level ? Any chance it may have a small snapper ahead of RIMM's earnings tomorrow ?
shifthappens
· 5 months ago
obama speaking now
moo
· 5 months ago
note that /TF 's VWAP is at 501
Rosabarba
· 5 months ago
What's the conversion from that contract to IWM?
moo
· 5 months ago
i have about 4
Rosabarba
· 5 months ago
So, 501 on /TF = approx. 50.50 on IWM ... thanks, moo.
Dutch
· 5 months ago
BLK at support 168.31. Top of the fib ignoring the last weeks breakout.
drydenprice
· 5 months ago
Interesting that FDX fought off its nasty opening, briefly went green and is heading back down again. I'm keeping shorts and even added to USO at 38.60. I think we revisit the lod.
Dutch
· 5 months ago
TZA long 23.24 if this market fails to hold the open and TNA can't break 28
shifthappens
· 5 months ago
USD 80.64 -.006 TNX 35.95 -79 UUP 24.08 -03
Dutch
· 5 months ago
SHLD long from 63.50 could be a good play if we get a big rally run
Dutch
· 5 months ago
Gonna wait on XLF 11.88 to see what happens. Markets pushing up to that resistance zone is all I see happening so far.
Ashok
· 5 months ago
long SRS 20.28
EDIT @11:30...Stop @ cost 20.28
Rosabarba
· 5 months ago
Edit: Whoops, nevermind.
moo
· 5 months ago
that was some serious $TICK intensity folks....60min $TICK at +290
urszula
· 5 months ago
Went short @ 913 (Hourly RL to go short had v good odds.) Got slightly anxious when i saw almost 4K of buy orders @ my price + just wasn't confident = going by the price fluctuations/the way the price was moving, that that RL would hold. Did the sensible thing and got out with a 2 tick loss.
Edit: may try again. Not sure yet.
urszula
· 5 months ago
In again. Went short @ 913.5. Out with 5 tick profit from that trade. (Out @ 912.25.)
moo
· 5 months ago
not seeing many if any negative $TICKs after +1125 print
nitemare
· 5 months ago
Do you folks use a moving average on $TICK ? If so, what time frames do you find useful? Thank you.
moo
· 5 months ago
120, 60, 10
nitemare
· 5 months ago
thanks!
moo
· 5 months ago
ema tho...
Sentiment_Al
· 5 months ago
I use 20 time frames, simple moving average, just to get a rough sense of where it's trending. If I used $tick for timing purposes (which I don't), I'd probably switch to 2 ema's and tinker with intervals a bit. The choice really depends on the time frame of your trades. People on this site vary quite a bit in their time frames, and (try to!) keep from messing each other up by being explicit what time frame they have in mind.
TenYear
· 5 months ago
SHeesh, who shot the dollar!?
Oil igniting
EdK
· 5 months ago
Interesting it didn't light up equities in general...
Rosabarba
· 5 months ago
Another good test for the Green Candle Cavalry, particularly the follow through to EOD, should it appear. I won't be playing today from either side (aside from pre-existing positions), but I'm keen to see what the closing tea leaves reveal, if anything, for those key indexes: IWM, SPY and XLF.
Rosabarba
· 5 months ago
You might expect to see a little anticipatory buying/covering into the final hour, then the big spike (or not), then the response (or not).
Must run ... best of luck, all.
Dutch
· 5 months ago
I've been stabbing SKF to death and getting nothing. Either 919 breaks to the upside or FAILURE. Gonna wait that out.
GE - A good short here. Buying July Puts. More on fundamental basis as the new Financial Regs. should (rightly) punish GE. Chart: http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=GE
DrNo
· 5 months ago
One day one minute sloppy head and shoulder ,heading south ,go boy go!That is spy
Modab
· 5 months ago
Went Short MSFT EOD. Bought July 23 Puts for .62 cents. Overextended .....
MyLifeMyTrade
· 5 months ago
More upside for MSFT tomorrow .. you will be fine though.. Test of $21 guaranteed pretty much - easy 3-bagger for you here.
I had bought Jul 24 puts on Tuesday for 0.94.. but closed them Wednesday morning anticipating a bounce and better entry.
Modab
· 5 months ago
Thanks MLMT,
Yeah.... I am thinking the same thing. Will sell some credit spreads on the next move up and take a back seat to let the trade develop. MSFT looks like it is way ahead of itself..overcrowded trade on the long side and will unravel sooner than later. I sold the first lot this morning for a 30% profit and then bought them back EOD at 62 cents. I need 22.38 by July EXP to break even..... I like my odds.
Thanks for the follow up and Ill see you on Moo's blog tomorrow.
You live on the west coast...kinda late for the east coasters....
Im in LA, San fernando Valley
MyLifeMyTrade
· 5 months ago
22.38 - I am pretty sure we will see that print before July opex... Most people think MSFT is a slow mover.. yes it is a slow mover.. but then its calls/puts are also much cheaper...
When things get ahead of themselves.. they are subjected to what RIMM was subjected.... it lost 3+ bucks on a day when Nasdaq was up 1%... MSFT will also come in line.. just a matter of time...
________________________________
Modab
· 5 months ago
By the way...Ill make sure to give you some love when I hit your site.
MyLifeMyTrade
· 5 months ago
Thanks - I would greatly appreciate that... Every bit helps :-) Be it via trading or via shared love :-)
________________________________
moo
· 5 months ago
I've accumulated FAS near the close (from 3:44pm)....Avg price is now 8.622 and the position is largish.
I am anticipating a gap up tomorrow and I am holding overnight.
I will explain my reasons later tonight.
MyLifeMyTrade
· 5 months ago
I also bought FAS with average at 8.629 - LOL
Dutch
· 5 months ago
I took 5000 TNA long at 28, holding over night (sim trade for me on this as it got me into trouble before!)
MyLifeMyTrade
· 5 months ago
In AH, FAS is up 6 cents.. LOL - getting close to be up 1% .. might actually get there by 8:00pm ET ... I doubled down on FAS in AH ... shhhhh.. dont tell that to any of the FAZholes :-)
moo
· 5 months ago
Press Release FDIC Chairman Sheila C. Bair Comments on the Obama Administration's Regulatory Reform Plan
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE June 17, 2009 Media Contact: Andrew Gray: (202) 898-7192 E-mail: angray@fdic.gov
FDIC Chairman Sheila C. Bair said, "I commend President Obama for his leadership on financial regulatory reform and his inclusive approach to policy development. There are key areas of reform within our regulatory structure that should be addressed in any effort to strengthen the oversight of our financial markets, enhance consumer protection and promote market discipline. Of primary importance is addressing too big to fail. Market participants should understand that large institutions can and will fail and that an effective resolution mechanism will be uniformly applied to institutions in a fair, transparent and consistent manner. It is also important that we maintain a focus on assuring strong capital requirements for banks and their holding companies. As the ultimate insurer of over $6 trillion in deposits, the FDIC's emphasis on capital has proven to be a crucial component in monitoring and preventing systemic risks. As we move through the reform effort, it will be important to take the lessons from the current financial crisis and apply them in a constructive and workable way. I would again salute the President for his attention to this issue. I look forward to working with the Administration and Congress as we begin the legislative process."
moo
· 5 months ago
It is of interest to me that QLD closed +1.5% but intraday the low-high was -4.3%
MyLifeMyTrade
· 5 months ago
I dont think there are many SRS addicts here.. but in case there are, here is my very detailed analysis of SRS... And this time around how about we share some love
Long HES at 53. I'm expecting a one or two day bounce to 55-56, and then short it at 55-56, has something to do with commodity stocks are in a downtrend.
MyLifeMyTrade
· 5 months ago
Boy - you are a swing trader... at its very best, I must add.
MyLifeMyTrade
· 5 months ago
Hey Moo - You never told us about your side business:
All Comments
definition of a moo-ster: one that does as good or better than moo for the day.
http://screencast.com/t/WBP1IqokD
but he doesn't look like he's going to be getting up in a hurry.
Thanks for you POT call btw brinkley (that's money in my pocket btw) and thanks for visiting again!
Might be the same pattern today....
The 60 Min PNF chart has a price objective of 850.20 (although I don't usually expect it to make the price objective projection, it more often does than on the daily chart).
This market was sold off to make premiums much cheaper for this Friday's option expiry which is quadruple witching day.
When do those options get unwound? Tomorrow after a gap up I think....
There was quite a fight today despite the tape ending up flatish, but to me this was just the setup for a high amplitude day tomorrow.
There was a small change in the McClellan Oscillator Wednesday, which I believe is suggesting a large price move.
It will be a huge whip. First UP sharply, then DOWN sharply.
Today, the QLD for example showed us a change of only +1.5% yet the high to low %change was closer to 4%.
Tomorrow's low/high % change numbers on all the indexes will be much more dramatic than this imo.
Let's see what actually happens tho....
My Trading Plan: I will not be holding any trade tomorrow for more than a few minutes at a time. I will look to $TICK to get me in and out of trades when exhaustive spikes get above +/- 1200 area. I will likely also use stochastic[15,9,9] to time my trades. I plan to exit FAS on the first $TICK > +1000 to +1200 range.
good night to all.
14,3....seems to be a little more sensitive to the short term.....
I hope you all had a good day? fwiw: looking at the daily SPX chart this evening it looks like we've made the smallest of little red DOJI to day. However this is below that 911.70 (CH number) so what can we expect tomorrow? GS cl 139.80 -4.36 BAC 12.29 -44. Have a good evening.
Sitting in all cash right now...what a great feeling!!!! Has been a great last few days and dont want to overtrade. Will wait for the right set up.
EDIT: Still in short and added a little more at 70.60. Stop at 70.81
EDIT: Cover 1/2 at 70.39 and holding other half. Free trade now.
EDIT: Covered 1/4 at 70.20 Holding last 1/4
EDIT: Covered last 1/3 at 70.18
I still believe we will see oil trading at 60 before we break thigh recent highs of 73..... might take a longer term position later on...but flat for now.
Miscellany
June 17th, 2009 11:29 am
TIPS are taking a pummeling in response to the better than expected inflation data. The break even spread in 10 years touched 207 last week. It is currently around 176.
Mortgages as measured by FNMA 5s are 4 ticks tighter to swaps. Up in coupon is outperforming modestly.
There has been chunky buying from Asian investors,services and the Federal Reserve.
Money managers and originators are better sellers.
Gold & silver now up a little, I see.
Here is an informative article from Craig Torres of Bloomberg news which discusses how the FOMC may use the statement which it will release at the conclusion s meeting next week that rates will indeed remain low for an “extended period”.
Bloomberg News and FOMC
by John Jansen
Anyway I have some July FAZ $5 calls that I bought last week. Up about 60% as of now. Moved my stops to ensure profit (except for the risk of a gap event), but does anyone have any thoughts as to what value FAZ might hit between now and July exp?
I should be here most of the day. Good luck to everyone today.
Good trading today...
Don’t underestimate your power to change yourself……don’t overestimate your power to control others.....
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109...
June 16th, 2009 4:22 pm
Prices of Treasury coupon securities have continued the recent resurgence which has seen them climb from the deepest recesses of financial hell to levels which approach a modicum of respectability.
There is not one salient reason to which I can point as a clear explanation of the price gains. The Federal Reserve certainly created some shorts on the street with its buyback.I would wager that some day trading types would have used that as a chance to be short on the offered side with the hope that after a healthy advance the market would retreat. Alas,we can quote the poet regarding the best laid plans of mice and men ( they often go astray).
I think that the alacrity of the rally has fooled some in retail land. One had a very narrow window in which to buy 4 percent 10 year notes or 30 year bonds in the 4.80s. I think the price action has transformed some institutional shorts into day trading shorts as they hoped for a back up which never came and were forced to cover.
The stock market has grown quite wobbly and is experiencing some disorientation. Perhaps maybe a bout of vertigo. I suspect that there is a pile of money exiting stocks for the safety of the Treasury market.
And the economic fundamentals remain bond friendly. PPI was better than expected and capacity utilization was at an all time low. Housing starts were better than expected but they should be after the peak to trough decline they suffered.
The yield on the 2 year note declined 3 basis points to 1..19 percent. The yield on the 3 year note slipped 4 basis points to 1.79 percent. The yield on the 5 year note fell 4 basis points to 2.68 percent. The yield on the 7 year note fell 5 basis points to 3.32 percent. The yield on the 10 year note dropped 5 basis points and rests at 3.66 percent. The Long Bond was the star of the day as its yield fel 7 basis points to 4.49 percent.
The 2year/10 year yield narrowed 2 basis points to 247 basis points.
The 2year/5year/30 year butterfly is 32 basis points.
Futures selling pretty hard now. We broke the overnight support around 905.75 in /ES.
* FedEx results, due before the bell, may shed light on the strength of the economic recovery. Also before the open, the May Consumer Price Index is due at 8.30 a.m. (1230 GMT).
* "The market is still trying to decide whether the selloff of the last few days is reaching an end," said Rick Meckler, president of investment firm LibertyView Capital Management in New York.
* S&P 500 futures SPc2 rose 3.10 points and were above fair value, a formula that evaluates pricing by taking into account interest rates, dividends and time to expiration on the contract. Dow Jones industrial average futures DJc2 gained 22 points, while Nasdaq 100 NDc2 futures added 3.75 points. (Reporting by Ellis Mnyandu; Editing by Padraic Cassidy)
http://www.mylifemytrade.com/2009/06/eur-usd-ve...
calling for a run up to 1.3930 (Tuesday's intra-day high), which is what happened. What surprised me though was that I did not expect such a strong rejection at that level. Here is where we are this morning:
http://www.mylifemytrade.com/2009/06/eurusd-pre...
After strong rejection all along the European session, EUR/USD has started melting up again during US pre-market. What all this tells me is that Europeans are selling their currency and when the US folks wake up and start trading, they start doing the same.
Jokes apart, looks like we will sport a nice sized bounce today .. RIMM is up nicely in pre-market, up $1 trying to stay afloat above $80 mark... Oil is down a buck... but then we have oil inventories report coming out today which should be bullish for oil (given that we are on the verge of recovery - LOL). I will most likely go long OIH June 105 calls for a quick scalp play with a tight stop.
chart: http://greedangerignorance.blogspot.com/2009/06...
half a minute ago from TweetDeck
S&P Cuts U.S. Bancorp Rtg To A+ From AA; Off Watch; Outlk Stable
less than a minute ago from TweetDeck
S&P Cuts Comerica Inc. Rtg To A- From A; Off Watch; Outlk Neg
1 minute ago from TweetDeck
S&P Cuts Regions Financial Corp. Rtg To BBB+ From A; Off Watch; Outlk Neg
2 minutes ago from TweetDeck
S&P Cuts Wells Fargo & Co. Rtg To AA- From AA; Off Watch; Outlk Neg
Should be an interesting day....Good trading!!
She had a target of 96 on it yesterday.
http://disqus.com/people/dianekjs/#main
be a buyer @ 20.
means it will go lower further than 900 today, unless this is a hammer.
The mini bullish reversals, for me, are opportunities to make $...as I
anticipate bounces along the psych. level of 900.
I'm seeing SPX a sort of wedge break down (dropping along the low channel line). This formation at this stage should be bullish one. If it's going to do a overthrow (push below the channel), then I'd view it a very lgood ong trade opportunity.
$spx 200 SMA 906.04 .....about 2 points below
Am having problems with Firefox. Am going to shut everything down, do a complete scan. This takes about 45 mins.
See you later. Good trading to Everyone!
wrote calls against other 50% SDS
Energy stocks cutting through supports.
cost: 8.49
small position
$SPX 905
selling intensity seems to waning
20 SMA 923.21 I will let go of my hedges above 915.50. Best case for me will be a back test of the 20 SMA
EDIT 9:13 am.....now asking $8.30
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarch...
also TNA is close to its HOD and SRS close to LOD.....
just a thought.
a piece of the puzzle. No single datum has 100% certainly in telling us what
might happen, but pulling in the pieces may paint a mosaic that we might
develop an edge or recognize a recurrent pattern.
EDIT @11:30...Stop @ cost 20.28
just wasn't confident = going by the price fluctuations/the way the price was moving, that that RL would hold. Did the sensible thing and got out with a 2 tick loss.
Edit: may try again. Not sure yet.
Oil igniting
Must run ... best of luck, all.
http://www.mylifemytrade.com/2009/06/short-the-...
I had bought Jul 24 puts on Tuesday for 0.94.. but closed them Wednesday morning anticipating a bounce and better entry.
Yeah.... I am thinking the same thing. Will sell some credit spreads
on the next move up and take a back seat to let the trade develop.
MSFT looks like it is way ahead of itself..overcrowded trade on the
long side and will unravel sooner than later. I sold the first lot
this morning for a 30% profit and then bought them back EOD at 62
cents. I need 22.38 by July EXP to break even..... I like my odds.
Thanks for the follow up and Ill see you on Moo's blog tomorrow.
You live on the west coast...kinda late for the east coasters....
Im in LA, San fernando Valley
When things get ahead of themselves.. they are subjected to what RIMM was subjected.... it lost 3+ bucks on a day when Nasdaq was up 1%... MSFT will also come in line.. just a matter of time...
________________________________
________________________________
I am anticipating a gap up tomorrow and I am holding overnight.
I will explain my reasons later tonight.
FDIC Chairman Sheila C. Bair Comments on the Obama Administration's Regulatory Reform Plan
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
June 17, 2009
Media Contact:
Andrew Gray: (202) 898-7192
E-mail: angray@fdic.gov
FDIC Chairman Sheila C. Bair said, "I commend President Obama for his leadership on financial regulatory reform and his inclusive approach to policy development. There are key areas of reform within our regulatory structure that should be addressed in any effort to strengthen the oversight of our financial markets, enhance consumer protection and promote market discipline. Of primary importance is addressing too big to fail. Market participants should understand that large institutions can and will fail and that an effective resolution mechanism will be uniformly applied to institutions in a fair, transparent and consistent manner. It is also important that we maintain a focus on assuring strong capital requirements for banks and their holding companies. As the ultimate insurer of over $6 trillion in deposits, the FDIC's emphasis on capital has proven to be a crucial component in monitoring and preventing systemic risks. As we move through the reform effort, it will be important to take the lessons from the current financial crisis and apply them in a constructive and workable way.
I would again salute the President for his attention to this issue. I look forward to working with the Administration and Congress as we begin the legislative process."
http://www.mylifemytrade.com/2009/06/srs-outloo...
will we get a repeat performance?
http://screencast.com/t/O4bPlqZJ
LOL :-)
http://www.umoo.com/
LOL LOL LOL - found this when sharing love with one of our fellow bloggers :-)