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Any dip on the bad news tomorrow will be the time I go long.
I believe that the next target will be /ES 1120 and maybe higher after seeing this reaction to the FED news yesterday.
Hope everyone did well or if you did not participate, like me, there will always be an opportunity to do so ( and very likely it will be tomorrow).
Wasn't sure where they will take it tomorrow but given the bullish close i am guessing the 20ma is going to be at least tested tomorrow ~107.20 or so on the SPY....
Question is, are theyf orming the head or is this ready for take out of the 110? will have to see..whatever, i'm sure it'll become apparent in a week or so...
Noticing interesting OI on the SPYs again and using that for judging my ranges..
Final thought, gap opened below, they filled them pretty violently, the >perfect< setup tomorrow owuld be a quick selloff down to that 1047 level and then up next week..one can only hope, if not, just going to hop onboard again and ride the wave.
Positions coming into today: BCRX, HGSI, RGLD, GOLD, SLW, IAG, TSL, WYNN, OIH, DO
Added to BCRX, WYNN, TSL this morning
Initiated today: NFLX, ANR, MA, (longs) and PRU, RIMM (short) --thank you RB ; )
Closed today: ANR, 1/2 OIH, 1/2 DO, all of RIMM short, 1/2 PRU short
Hope all did well. I'm looking forward to tomorrow!
Brinks out.
Loved HGSI today. Came about 0.40 from taking out the impulse high after yesterday's big selloff.
Just saw the new AAII sentiment survey: 22% Bullish, 55% Bearish. This little bitty pullback has caused the most extreme bearish sentiment since . . . the first week of March!
The timing on these things is too fuzzy for day trading, but it becomes part of the background, like the trend, momentum, etc. And it's very bullish.
By changing the box size you can increase or decrease the sensitivity of your chart to price movement. Witness the RUT with a 4 pt. box and the RUT with a 5 pt. box. Both have their 45 degree support lines but aside from that it’s as if you are looking at two different issues. On one you have a potential double top break out with a possible buy signal, and the other we just have a column of “X”s and a long way to a buy signal. I prefer the less sensitive charts because I tend to marry them to my EMA’s and position trade. Swing traders like the more sensitive charts and, as I am doing now, lower the box size. Soooo be sure to check that out when you are making decisions based on PNF charts. You can do this yourself on stockcharts.com…
Anyway…just a thought to confuse you….hope it helps someone….
http://screencast.com/t/rxA18ElO
http://screencast.com/t/GlYL5yvVGD3e
Yesterday, I pointed out the difference using $RUT daily ATR PNF and the intraday ATR PNF to moosters:
"$RUT bounced off major daily support of 560. On the 30 min PnF, it has had a strong 6 box buying reversal, but needs to close above the 579.70 level to go on a buy signal. On the 10 min PnF it is on a buy signal from 569.90. On the daily, the 20 SMA appears just days from crossing the 50 SMA. It looks like seasonal strength into January on small caps may have started, but too early for me to be confident."
So as you can see the different time frames give you different outlooks.
By the way thanks for the info you gave me on Las Vegas over the weekend. I'm looking forward to next week's trip, although I'll be working in the day time.
Thanks for your posts....always learn from them.
I started trading, through TradeStation, the RUT futures a few weeks ago and that has taken a little time to get used too. My plan is to continue doing swing, position, trading, as I have been doing, while attending to day trades on the futures. I am gaining confidence in my futures software and if I can find better charts for the other trading I will be in hog heaven. Thanks again for your thoughts...
Have a lot of fun this weekend digging divots :-)
By varying ATR periods, we get a selection of slightly varied PnF charts and I look for a best-fit when seeking to idenfity S/R. I might add I think this technique works best with the shorter, intra-day PnF charts as far as improving the accuracy of identifying S/R. I mentioned using longer periods and I do but also have used shorter. In this example I use 13, 20 (default), 34 & 55. Last is the short-term S/R level displayed on SPX candles.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CS...
I think both my bull and bear outfits are getting holes from overuse..
Has anyone made any REAL money since 2000?
http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2009/11/...
Bespoke
Though you're averaged in around 13.04, right? Barely a flesh wound.
I don't know about you, but today's action feels incredibly creepy to me for reasons I can't describe. Maybe it's the way the PMs are trading, or not, as it happens. I've taken some longs and shorts off the table today, and I haven't added anything.
I have to give a slight bow to Moo who suggested last night that there would be some upside ... (fwiw ... I am the one in the glasses in the video below ... going to take some Ritalin now)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-FucbvoFFy0
With the combination of unemployment and an announcement about a new job/employment program by the federal government ... I may be forced to cover tomorrow and maybe even change direction ...
As far as getting trapped in a particular mindset, I think it's extremely common, and half the battle is learning to recognize one's own tendencies or biases so that it becomes easier to overcome them. I hope you've been doing well, and that we will be seeing more of you!
Edit: Covered the last lot of DEC48 puts, bought OTM. Probably early, as per usual, but buying late and leaving early is a perfectly viable strategy. :-)
I owe you for HGSI from way back, plus a lot more besides. Glad I could bring more to the table than a fork for a change. ;-)
I have never known you to come to any table without making most generous contributions to the banquet, and we are all the richer for it. (If I recall, the last time, in addition to your fork you also showed up with a bib, a doggie bag, and Taz on a leash.)
All kidding aside, thank you, RB.
If GDX makes new all-time highs before the end of the year, perhaps moo can host a toga party.
As for Taz on a leash, I didn't realize anybody saw that. Give me a couple of days to come up with a plausible explanation.
I have a chart if interested
http://www.screencast.com/users/toad37/folders/...
http://twitpic.com/oc4q1
WOW!
there was a $5 billion cash acqui announced this morning and cisco added $10 billion to their buyback. lots of other stuff; too much to mention.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v7ZVZaoUBls
The sim account is up $20,500 on 42 trades since Oct. 1 with $5,500 in losses. 31 winners, 11 losers, avg trade $489.
Now if I only had 1mil buying power for real, I could average down all the time and make it work apparently.
Unit Labor Costs-prelim -5.2% vs -4.2% consensus, prior -5.9%; Q3 Nonfarm Productibvity +9.5% vs +6.5% consensus, prior +6.6%
I am neutral on the day. We likely will have an inside day as we await the big number tomorrow morning.
Given this, I will likely not be trading today.
Interesting news on AIG:
http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601009&sid...
"GDX had slumped more than 17.7% from its October 13, 2009 high of 49.74 to its October 30 intraday low of 40.92. Most important corrections are usually accompanied by the strongest short-term bounces. December 2009 gold futures marked a new all-time record high. The repeated highs for gold bullion, combined with lower highs for GDX, is a classic negative divergence which will soon lead to sharply lower prices for both; I expect gold to bottom near $950 over the next several weeks before resuming its strong bull market."
The link isn't working for me. You may want to check it in case others are having trouble with it too.
I was referring to the link in his post here, but I have noticed that my refresh rate has slowed in the past week or so too. I think it may be a Disqus issue and not a blog issue. I've done all of the "standard" fixes like clearing the cache etc but it hasn't helped.
resides my Nov 4th updates for breadth, selected index prices, Euro, US Dollar, the XAU
futures for Gold, Copper, Oil
http://forums.technicalwatch.com/post?id=3785025
- hiker
overall I expect most areas to be flat to mildly positive in front of the unemployment news Friday morning ...
I may still mildly short the morning highs ...
--------------------------------
keep an eye on retail this morning ... it might finally rollover ... 89.50 area is a critical hold for bulls by EOD ...
DPTR @ 1.11......LOTTO
HUGE volume today......
Thoughts?.....If we break that....1075?
http://finviz.com/publish/110509/RDYc1dl1013.png
At these RDY prices, I think better risk-reward in other names. e.g. SNY from Pharma, IBN / EPI for India, EWA / EEM if we in the US go towards /ES 1120.
I don't see any news right now. Perhaps just short covering near the 200dema.
My overly bearish posture today is hurting me a bit but couldn't resist
that.
If the market rallies and drags PRU along with it, I might give it another shot.
SH @ 55.70.....tight stop
RTH took a dip this morning on news CVS about the pharmacy benefit services declining significantly (stock is down 0ver 20%) ... I have upped my short positions in retail ...
Blah. Lucky there I held and didn't get totally screwed.
YRCW @ 1.30.....just a feeling...some 80k blocks went @ THAT PRICE....
Pump and Dump?
TZA Bought @ $13.20. Stop the usual 2%. Will exit if /ES > 1062
I have 13.14 on TZA as a major fib confluence area
I was just pondering where I should buy 2nd batch...
http://www.screencast.com/users/toad37/folders/...
21.40ish target?
Look at the bang for the buck on DRV vs SRS and the momo.
Wouldn't cancel an order for me earlier
Now a limit order filled as a market (at least it appeared that way, it may have spread so fast that it hit my limit jumped up and filled)
Difficult market.
Good luck out there.
But it's up as long as it's not, so I've shorted SKF here.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125743289932030...
My target hit TZA @ 13.07.....1/3 position
EDIT....damn 13.02 was fill
EXECUTIONS FOR THIS TRADE
Date Time Price Quantity Total
11/05/2009 01:00:06 PM $13.02 1,000.000 $13,020.00
NET TOTAL 1,000.000 $13,020.00
Last update: 11/5/2009 1:47:40 PM
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BAC&p=D&yr=0&m...
Viper and Dutch mentioned the end of the month pattern of late. The volume profile, rate of change and selling intensity of the last few sell offs (June-July, end of Aug, end of Sept and end of Oct) seem to indicate the possibility the institutions (banks) are separating investors from their capital. The rallies back are on lower volume, but PRICE is the ultimate indicator and previously has retaken previous highs from each pullback. It has a devious look to it and shorts who have tried to sell momentum on the sell offs have been fodder. I think there is a distinct possibility $spx retakes the 20 SMA and melts up past recent highs of 1104 with a Christmas rally into the 1160 area. There is also the possibility of a collapse into the 950 area, but odds are not as good on that bet as 100 points higher from here, that is if the market can sustain that pesky 10% unemployment number. imho.
Nope....UUP PowerShares DB USD Bull to temporarily suspend the issuance of additional Creation Baskets (22.49 -0.02)
900K shares dumped in 40 minutes.....
small position though
Added: I'm a little more reluctant to trade against the trend these days since that hasn't worked out too well in recent weeks.
TZA - Out with small loss. /ES > 1062 and EURUSD stopped going down
On November 3, 2009, PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund, a series of PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Trust, announced in a Current Report on Form 8-K that 6,600,000 of its Shares registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission were available for purchase by the Fund's Authorized Participants. As stated in its current prospectus, the Fund creates and redeems Shares in blocks of 200,000 Shares called "Creation Baskets" and "Redemption Baskets," respectively. Only Authorized Participants may purchase or redeem Creation Baskets or Redemption Baskets. As of November 5, 2009, the Fund issued all of the remaining Shares to its Authorized Participants. As a result of these issuances, the Fund will temporarily suspend the issuance of additional Creation Baskets until the registration statement on Form S-3 which was initially filed on November 2, 2009 and registers an additional 100,000,000 Shares of the Fund has been cleared by the SEC, the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority and the National Futures Association. The Fund will issue a subsequent Current Report on Form 8-K to announce the effectiveness of the Registration Statement and its ability to resume offering Creation Baskets to its Authorized Participants. The suspension of the issuance of Creation Baskets has no effect on the ability of Authorized Participants to redeem Redemption Baskets.
-briefing.com
(Stock was halted and has resumed trading)
if you are unable to create shares, there is a chance the price of the ETF can exceed NAV ... share creation keeps the ETF from exceeding NAV too much (remember this happened with UNG). if you are long UUP this isn't a problem ... it is a problem if you are short UUP though because you may experience a synthetic short squeeze here. Keep in mind we may see a short squeeze in UUP and no movement in $DXY or /DX because trading this ETF has no direct effect on the actual USD value (just like trading UNG doesn't affect actual nat gas prices).
Unbelievable. Had to be a reason those call buyers would accept a 100% bid-ask spread for front-month options on such a slow-moving ETF.
They're up 250 percent at the bid today and rising.
It does explain why some savvy folks were buying a ton of front-month 23 calls. Seemed ridiculous at the time based on dollar movement alone.
Yesterday, those calls were offered at 10 cents. They're now bid at 25 and rising.
Crazy.
But it's also so brazen (somebody's going to notice when you buy 200k front-month OTM calls on a slug like UUP), I wonder if this move couldn't have been sussed out beforehand legitimately. The buying volume on UUP lately has been off the charts.
I dunno, man.
Also these calls were cheap and there was a risk of Fed saying something to kick the dollar up. Once the premium to NAV rises to a few percentage points a short UUP long DX trade might be a good arbitrage.
Trading all of their call volume right before the announcement makes it look like an inside job unless there were a reasonable way one could have sussed this move out based on demand for UUP shares beforehand (or some other metric or previous filing), it would seem to me.
And let's be honest, in this market, 30% moves aren't nearly as scary as they once were for people to buy.
I think it will trade the 115-125 range unless we make a new high in equities; likely this will follow the market to new highs than lead it. The Retail news today morning was mix (perhaps causing the sell off at the open).
Pink....hold my seat....
Little WNR....chug..chug...
Can't remember the rest.....is it up...or down the chart?
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601124...
Good trading all....Ms B...Moo...Thank you
See what happens tomorrow after the employment data.
We are seeing some decoupling. The currency and oil markets have not yet caught up with equities in this rally. I think many currency traders are waiting for the NFPs to be out of the way. So if things are rosy tomorrow, the biggest moves might be in the currency markets tomorrow.
I was not sure though which way it would break. If the NFPs are really good then it is likely that the Fed will start become less dovish which should be bullish for the USD. However over the past year any good economic news has lead to a weaker dollar as the risk trade comes on. I think the Fed is going to be out of the picture and the risk on trade will dominate.
Ms. B: I am seeing a double headed IHS on the intra-days in OIH. Target seems to be the prior highs at 130.
I don't see oil falling too much given the $BDI.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$WTIC&p=D&yr=0...
Here's just a scribble chart of a dream I had last night. Amazingly I was dreaming that the market was up while it was actually happening. LOL. Anyway, it's just for fun and no waves, counts, etc. Just a vision although it does make a bit of sense considering "year end rallies" etc.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&...
http://bit.ly/W8ent
We''ll see where this ascending triangle breaks tomorrow...
p.s. I'd love to draw up a chart that removes every overnight gap on the S&P and see what it looks like on the year...gap less.