Blue Chip Bulldog - Latest Comments in Trades for 11/4/09

Re: Trades for 11/4/09

Rosabarba — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 21:47:55 -0000

Well, it's still pretty treacherous out there, and it's hard to blame anyone for being leery of the volatility you get with PMs.

FWIW, that RSI(7) buy signal moo demonstrated a while back worked again this time around.

Re: Trades for 11/4/09

moo — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 21:42:21 -0000

New Post!

Re: Trades for 11/4/09

jayinasia — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 21:03:02 -0000

I don't know. I'm starting to think the afternoon was the time to buy. Of course, most of you guys have a different time line but just looking at AUD&EUR it doesn't look like much has changed except maybe a flatening out of the trend. (although there has been a lot gnashing of teeth).
FXE
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc...
FXA
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc...

Re: Trades for 11/4/09

aviat72 — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 20:51:15 -0000

Lesson: Axes and Shovels work much better than calculators. Just mine the PMs and sit back instead of managing the greeks.

I am still ruing missing the PM boat yet again. Should have gone long GLD when it hit the gap support at 101 last week or tried our OTM long dated call strategy on the miners on the pullback. I need some mental rewiring since I lean towards selling premium when IV is high (i.e. during a sell-off) than buying high vega long dated options. However in PMs the intensity of underlying price movements more than make up for any extra premium you pay. At the least should have bought some spreads.
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I am selling volatility premium where ever I can. AMZN is my favorite right now; IV continues to remain high and the stock's price action suggests range bound consolidation for some time till it digests the 30% move.

A pure play on VIX is selling the calendar spread (short NOV futures, long next year's futures) on any VIX spike; the forward curve of VIX futures does not typically react to short term VIX movements.
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The market is on hold till the NFPs come out on Friday; very little conviction and the Financials are wavering as are the semis. As Ms. B puts it, King Dollar holds the key.

Re: Trades for 11/4/09

facesincabs — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 20:40:08 -0000

I think that the afternoon reversals down have been consistent enough to keep me in some short positions ...

but I agree that it is mixed ... for example commodity bulls still have game here ... but I see tech being in trouble technically ...

Re: Trades for 11/4/09

morrise — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 20:37:29 -0000

that makes sense

Re: Trades for 11/4/09

Brinkley — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 20:27:49 -0000

There's already been a lot of 10% talk this week.. We shall see.

Re: Trades for 11/4/09

Brinkley — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 20:25:46 -0000

I'm a bit guarded too, LFB. There are some things that look fairly bullish, but also quite a few reversals and shaky looking charts. I'm seeing a very mixed picture at the moment. Also watching EUR/USD slip, and UUP closed after hours back at the hod.

Re: Trades for 11/4/09

facesincabs — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 20:19:31 -0000

I am not as bullish as Moo going into tomorrow (lots of evening star candlesticks formed on the index charts after today ... watching for a confirmation of that pattern on individual charts) ...

I have some short positions in retail (including a core put position in the RTH) and real estate (including a rather enormous SRS position) ... I really liked the volume and recovery by the SRS at day's end ... as I posted on the weekend I am looking for the retail data tomorrow to provide "a tell" about the markets ...

http://tinyurl.com/yg685hf (tech better "get its butt in gear")

I am also watching the currency triad (Euro, USD and Yen) ...

Re: Trades for 11/4/09

Rosabarba — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 19:17:43 -0000

Howdy, aviat. What did you learn from the market today?

Re: Trades for 11/4/09

aviat72 — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 19:09:37 -0000

However if you playing for one of those 2008 types of directional moves on SRS then calls are better.

Re: Trades for 11/4/09

Rosabarba — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 19:08:56 -0000

Just wanted a little more duration. I bought them OTM. ;-)

Re: Trades for 11/4/09

Doji Girl — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 18:55:02 -0000

That's weird about HGSI - My get-em-in price on that was 19.89, pennies from
yours. I think we are trading twins.

I've got IYR puts as well as a small bit of SRS shares. Also a few XRT and
MTB puts which I picked up yesterday and short shares of BXP today. I've
never traded quarterly options. For some reason they scare me. Is there any
reason why you went with those instead of the regulars?

Re: Trades for 11/4/09

Rosabarba — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 18:45:04 -0000

If UUP wins first prize for huge options volume at extremely low contract values, XHB has to be a close second. As with UUP, heavily skewed to the call side. Not exactly complimentary trades, I would think, unless one is selling and the other buying.

Re: Trades for 11/4/09

Doji Girl — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 18:44:18 -0000

Ha! You just made me spit my drink.

Re: Trades for 11/4/09

Rosabarba — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 18:40:18 -0000

I fully expect Warren Buffett to buy Prudential for a 30 percent premium before I close. ;-)

Re: Trades for 11/4/09

Rosabarba — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 18:29:46 -0000

My short side still has puts on IWM (Dec. quarterlies, 60 strike), IYR, FXI, QQQQ, PRU, that little lotto of JAN puts on GMCR, and the ghost of my BNI 75 puts, which would literally cost more to sell than to let expire, where they shall remain as a testament to the wisdom of diversification and position sizing until January opex.

But I'm a lot less short than I was at the start of the day. The dollar action sucked if you're an equity bear, and gold was marvelous. The volume on both the equities and the relevant futures contracts the past few days seem to be saying the same thing.

Another interesting little bit of circumstantial evidence was the Selling on Strength table. If the big boys were using an up day on SPX to get out of dodge, they weren't doing it with block sales of index ETFs.

HGSI - bummer to see it sell off like that after it seemed the early adopters had finished cashing in. Ah well, this is a profitable trade for me above 19.80, and if it gets too close to 25, I'll take my gains and move on.

Re: Trades for 11/4/09

Rosabarba — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 18:15:36 -0000

Maybe, but pennies are important when it comes to currencies, and if the premise is that the dollar is wildly oversold and equities due for a major correction on a mean reversion in USD, the last week has been pretty thin gruel for dollar bulls.

76 was the swing low before the current bottom. Breaking it means that instead of starting an unmistakeable rally, all the dollar has done is print another lower high on the daily.

Maybe it will continue lower, make a double bottom around 75, and then begin to rally harder. Couldn't say. It could all be a headfake, but today both gold and the USD acted as if yesterday's dollar action was a little blowoff top.

Re: Trades for 11/4/09

Doji Girl — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 18:02:48 -0000

I'm out of that trade because I didn't want to hold over earnings and potentially watch my profit evaporate. I'm looking to get back in as long as it stays below the 20 and 50 MAs which are practically at the same spot.

I guess I'm not as bullish as everyone else is around here, though I do have some long positions going.

Re: Trades for 11/4/09

Rosabarba — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 17:58:52 -0000

If you want to play options on the triple ETFs, imo the better approach is puts on FAS than calls on FAZ. Let compounding decay be a tailwind.

Re: Trades for 11/4/09

Doji Girl — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 17:56:09 -0000

I got me some IAG yesterday morning. Enjoying it so far.
Also bought some IWM puts.
Shorted BXP on the run-up after Fed-speak. Delighted with the nearly 2 pt profit so far.

My ES and GC futures trades were a scratch today, barely covering my commissions. But everything else is/was working beautifully. Great day overall.

(still covered on HGSI - not sure what I"m doing with that)

Re: Trades for 11/4/09

EdK — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 17:49:30 -0000

Agreed - not sure how to view the USD closing below 76 in light of the crumbling of IWM in that last half hour. Really, even the Q's and SPY gave about averything back for the day. Would not have thought the dollar closing beneath a key technical level would cause that kind of finish. Maybe too much is being made of a break by a few pennies - a possible head fake?

Edit: upon closer look the USD was printing occaisional lows between 75.70-75.80 for the first 30 minutes or so after the Fed announcement and then as the equities proceeded to crumble it clawed its' way back toward 76 for the duration reaching as high as 75.95 before settling at 75.91. That might be too close to call.

Re: Trades for 11/4/09

ropey — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 17:39:46 -0000

Time for the big >10% media blitz on unemployment? We're at what 9.8% now on the media front?

Re: Trades for 11/4/09

chaunceyherbie — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 17:23:36 -0000

thanks, lh36

Re: Trades for 11/4/09

morrise — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 17:08:19 -0000

I think the BIG GUYs are waiting for the jobs report on fri...Nonetheless M.C. shows them being net sellers for a while so if that news is a killer watch out...regardless, take a peak at these Banks that I have looked at for my journal...i tried to get calls on the FAZ today buttt I'm too whimpy and backed off because of the spreads...I did some FAZ again and here is why...
Banks …no need to draw any trend lines…
BKX…triple bottom break
http://screencast.com/t/Kmt...
http://screencast.com/t/AQA...
RIFIN…a break of 730 with close, and these banks are toast….
http://screencast.com/t/0RW...
http://screencast.com/t/jXM...
XLF
http://screencast.com/t/6l8...
http://screencast.com/t/JEI...
KRE
http://screencast.com/t/K7c...
http://screencast.com/t/07J...

FAZ…histogram and MACD showing improved momentum for this guy
http://screencast.com/t/MIk...
http://screencast.com/t/ihO...
http://screencast.com/t/OrP...

FAS…quick look…
http://screencast.com/t/dGG...
http://screencast.com/t/5Cq...
Anyway I have been selling too fast and not catching as much of the moves as I should be. Hopefully keeping a journal of my thoughts will tell me why....