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With other countries raising interest rates and the US standing firm in policy bodes not well for the USD$.
If /ES 1046 can be sustained over night, I see a significant rally tomorrow.
I am positioned long into the evening.
Best wishes to all.
Sorry I wasn't around much today. It was actually kind of nice to catch up on some paperwork and odds and ends. Have a nice evening, and we'll see how it goes tomorrow.
The PnF $SPX Daily has had a normal 3 box selling reversal and longer term looks strong.
The PnF $SPX 30 min has gone on a buy signal. For now the $SPX has regained the 50SMA at 1053.60, with the 30 min PnF potential support/resistance line at 1065.50 and the 20 SMA at 1071.39 as short term targets above. Below are this mornings gap, the daily PnF potential support/resistance level of 1039, the low of the pullback at 1029.38 and the gap from 9/18, coinciding with the 30 min PnF potential support resistance level of 1016.
My probability study based on supply, demand, price-volume and frequency favor higher prices in the $spx intermediate term, fwiw.
$RUT bounced of major daily support of 560. On the 30 min PnF, it has had a strong 6 box buying reversal, but needs to close above the 579.70 level to go on a buy signal. On the 10 min PnF it is on a buy signal from 569.90. On the daily, the 20 SMA appears just days from crossing the 50 SMA. It looks like seasonal strength into January on small caps may have started, but too early for me to be confident.
79.24 = $wtic (oil) PnF major support resistance level
1061 = $gold PnF major support resistance level
77.28= $USD PnF major support resistance level
75.69= $USD PnF major support resistance level
75.88=20sma
76.67=50sma
UUP could not hold the 50 SMA more than a few minutes yesterday and returned back to the 20 SMA at 22.53 and appears to be hanging there by a thread.
Note: Major Daily PnF levels are plus or minus 0.005%. Hourly PnF levels are 0.0015%
Yup, understand what you are saying.
Assume that today's VIX was 27, which is annualized. To get the daily sigma, divide it by sqrt(365), which comes to 1.4% .
Assume that /ES opened at 1050, the probability of /ES staying within 1050 +/- 1.4% is 68%, while the probability of it staying within 1050 +/- 2.8% is 95%, using numbers from the Statistics 101 class.
The first example above makes sense, since /ES never went below 1035 or above 1065 today. The second example above tells us that, in 95% of the time, /ES should not go up or down by more than 30 points in a single session.
Of course, no one knows a priori what the true value of the implied volatility is.
Banks …no need to draw any trend lines…
BKX…triple bottom break
http://screencast.com/t/Kmt5qY939c
http://screencast.com/t/AQAZoNVBePy
RIFIN…a break of 730 with close, and these banks are toast….
http://screencast.com/t/0RWP2GvR
http://screencast.com/t/jXMTO2fKU
XLF
http://screencast.com/t/6l8rThTcknYu
http://screencast.com/t/JEIqjvnl4
KRE
http://screencast.com/t/K7cEnRMbj3J
http://screencast.com/t/07JBLmOH
FAZ…histogram and MACD showing improved momentum for this guy
http://screencast.com/t/MIkFrIkoqV
http://screencast.com/t/ihOCjLiZWk
http://screencast.com/t/OrP26V3Myr
FAS…quick look…
http://screencast.com/t/dGG3m0b7jBA
http://screencast.com/t/5CqnJpYjUg
Anyway I have been selling too fast and not catching as much of the moves as I should be. Hopefully keeping a journal of my thoughts will tell me why....
I am still ruing missing the PM boat yet again. Should have gone long GLD when it hit the gap support at 101 last week or tried our OTM long dated call strategy on the miners on the pullback. I need some mental rewiring since I lean towards selling premium when IV is high (i.e. during a sell-off) than buying high vega long dated options. However in PMs the intensity of underlying price movements more than make up for any extra premium you pay. At the least should have bought some spreads.
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I am selling volatility premium where ever I can. AMZN is my favorite right now; IV continues to remain high and the stock's price action suggests range bound consolidation for some time till it digests the 30% move.
A pure play on VIX is selling the calendar spread (short NOV futures, long next year's futures) on any VIX spike; the forward curve of VIX futures does not typically react to short term VIX movements.
---------------------------------------------------------
The market is on hold till the NFPs come out on Friday; very little conviction and the Financials are wavering as are the semis. As Ms. B puts it, King Dollar holds the key.
FWIW, that RSI(7) buy signal moo demonstrated a while back worked again this time around.
http://carlfutia.blogspot.com/2009/11/grasping-...
Goldman Sachs' (GS) Q3 trading record: In 64 trading days, it lost money on just one, and made more than $100M/day on 36 days - down from 46 in Q2. On the quarter, equities commissions fell to $930M from $1.2B a year ago, but trading profits soared to $1.8B from $354M.
YRCW @ 1.29....
EDIT....out @ 1.42......nice.....
also, only reason i'm aware of this fun ticker is because i saw you mention it a while back (have made a little money before on previous occasions as well). so, thank ya sir!
Here are the probabilities of the ES touching certain pivots at some point on 11/04/09 before the close, using an IV of 28.06%:
*UPDATED PROBABILITIES IN PARENTHESES* = as of 7:40 am cst and 27.37% volatility
1002.33 = 1.04%
1019.83 = 16.03%
1030.67 = 48.59% (5.93%)
1037.33 = 78.95% (20.24%)
1041.17 = 98.32% (34.98%)
1048.17 = 66.67% (81.06%)
1054.83 = 39.16% (68.52%)
1072.33 = 4.98% (4.14%)
Happy Trading!
SRS @ 9.75....
http://screencast.com/t/sU29J8P6
BTW....nice chart...
See if your Miner can top that!
I usually go for SPY because the spreads are smaller...
Also ... after looking at some charts last night I wanted to congratulate all you gold bugs ... looks like your time has re-arrived ... 1200 to 1300 looks like a much more reasonable target now ...
GNVC: 0.96 to 1.20
ABK: 1.11 to 1.52
GRMN: 32.36 to 35
RDN: 6.15 to 6.60
ACAS: 3.10 to 3.40
IRE: 9.35 to 10.25
HIG: 26.90 to 27.70
EXM: 6 to 6.30
CSCO: 22.91 to 23.30
XOMA (XOMA:$0.6942,$0.0237,3.53%) : 0.72 to 0.77
PACR: 3.25 to 3.47
DOWNSIDE MOVERS
STEC (STEC:$23.15,00$1.59,007.37%) : 16.35 to 15.51
VG: 1.89 to 1.42
VVUS: 7.93 to 7.55
KFT: 27.10 to 26.70
Plus its our wedding anniversary today....taking the wife to NY to see the sights (if she wants too
Happy trading moosters.
5->40->16 ( and possibly lower?)..
–Well how about that! India pipped China at the post to walk away with 200 tonnes of IMF gold. Granted, India had to pay US$6.8 billion for the yellow metal. But with China steadily accumulating gold as a reserve asset (at the household AND central bank level), everyone thought China has this one in the bag. Not so!
–Something more than meets the eye is going on here. The IMF sale was part of a plan to unload 403.3 tonnes of gold. It’s halfway there, and will use the proceeds to fund itself and loans to the developing world (or perhaps Britain and America when they go broke). But what else is going on?
–In the past, larges sales of gold - mostly by European central banks - swamped the gold price and kept it in check. The European CBs either felt like they had too much gold doing too little work on the balance sheet. Or, they were manipulating the price of gold down by increasing the supply to the market whenever the gold price began rendering its verdict on global fiscal and monetary policy.
–India’s central bank is now the proud owner of 557 tonnes of gold. That gives it the tenth largest gold holdings among central banks. But it probably isn’t finished. Gold makes up just six percent of India’s foreign exchange reserves. There’s plenty of room for that to grow.
–But don’t forget China. China has $2.3 trillion in foreign exchange reserves. But 70% of those - or $1.6 trillion - are in U.S. dollars. It owns over just a 1,000 tonnes of gold. That makes up less than 2% of China’s reserves and makes China the seventh largest holder of above ground gold. In fact the gold exchange traded fund (NYSE:GLD) owns more gold than China. France, Italy, the IMF, Germany, and the United States round out top five (from fifth to first).
USD 6.8 billion BTW seems very little compared to export and GDP figures.
A lot of folks seem to believe we are going up from here but in the 50-60 stocks and ETF's I watch I see more bearish set ups, at least in the very, very short term (day trade).
Am I alone in this? I'm still fine tuning my chart reading abilities and any comments would be welcome.
Good trading to all today.
SPY:
R3 105.64
R2 105.39
R1 105.15
Pivot 104.41
S1 103.67
S2 103.43
S3 103.18
ES (converted):
R3 1051.118
R2 1048.6305
R1 1046.2425
Pivot 1038.8795
S1 1031.5165
S2 1029.1285
S3 1026.641
http://screencast.com/t/zXZaeyOV
Added 1/3 more SRS @ 9.70....
EXECUTIONS FOR THIS TRADE
Date Time Price Quantity Total
11/04/2009 10:20:27 AM $9.70 1,000.000 $9,700.00
NET TOTAL 1,000.000 $9,700.00
Taking some partial profits on BAC, MGM, ENER today...
good luck all.
/ES hourly chart update.... http://tinyurl.com/yjrjuqq
we had the bullish 8/20 SMA crossover yesterday for a buy signal (which has worked out great so far) and we just gapped into the channel without any significant pullback in the am (bullish so far). Looking for top side of channel as possible entry for short..will exit my longs before fomc announcement
EUR/USD daily chart update http://tinyurl.com/yf44rxy
EUR/USd still inside longer terms channel...now just below horizontal trendline and 20 day SMA.... and in the middle of the channel... anything goes from here.....
Trade well
http://www.chartsandcoffee.com/2009/11/short-sa...
It makes you wonder whether big institutions can manipulate a stock by turning on and off short selling. For example, if they own a huge chunk of the float, preventing anyone from borrowing their shares. And then at other times permitting it.
If you run into again, and the price is right, see if you can get it in the pre-market.
________________________________
It's happened to me across two different platforms this year. Particularly with GS. Available one day, hits major resistance the next, I short it, not available, then available the next. F that.
YRCW @ 1.37......
At some point these etf's decay so much that they aren't worth trading for the scalping I like to do. When one thousand shares turns into five thousand, then ten thousand to get the same dollar return...I pass.
The Fed might come out with something to support CRE. They changed accounting rules so that banks with loans where the collateral is worth less than the loan do not have to mark them as bad loans as long as the payments are current. I am watching IYR but would prefer to be flat before FOMC
I think I read it @ SOH....
By Ian Mathias
11/03/09 Baltimore, Maryland – Don’t expect too much market action until tomorrow afternoon, when the FOMC emerges from its latest meeting. Especially in light of another rate hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia overnight, the market wants to know when the Fed plans on abandoning its near-zero interest rate policy.
“We believe there will be no change in the language,” notes our macro-man Rob Parenteau, “regarding holding the fed funds rate near zero for an ‘extended period’ at the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, despite the real GDP advance in Q3. The Fed needs home prices to stabilize (if not advance) if further damage to household and bank balance sheets is to be contained.
“We suspect the end of Treasury purchases last week under the Fed’s quantitative easing regime is more important than guessing the precise language of the next FOMC statement, although the auctions during the week, we understand, went smoothly. Still, unless the relapse news builds, or the banks step up their purchases of longer-dated Treasury debt, the Treasury market has just lost a major buyer, as this part of the Fed’s quantitative easing operations has come to a close.”
Where does she sit?.......this stuff bothers me...FWIW
BTW...added YRCW 1/2 more @ 1.34....
http://screencast.com/t/gdzBWzGtWJm
http://screencast.com/t/sI3rhztP
IBN - Covered the short leg of the Nov $33/Jan $29 Put spread fro a tripple. Will sell near Puts again when there is a pullback. Right now IBN is touching underside of the resistance & 50 dMA and a potential short - risky with big moves, so be careful.
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=ibn
Speaking of profit taking, I just took my profit in GLD calls. I was going to hold out for 1100 but I think everyone is looking at that number and I like to not get crushed in the stampede. Still long term bullish and will reload after a pullback.
HGSI is wicked volatile, so anything is possible, but 27 sure looks supportive today, at least, on the heels of a two-day explosion.
Ever trade the energy complex? I regret not doing more of it these last months. Trading OIH options with proper patience and discipline (something I haven't always applied to the PMs and a lot more besides) has been amazing.
ooops.../GC just ripped up nearly $3 while I was typing this.
Stalking a couple of short setups - AZO (god help me) and BXP.
PACR @ 4.19.....
EDIT....stopped out...small loss....
50.05% of touching 1060, and
12.03% of touching the pivot
Where do you get these numbers? Are they posted somewhere or are you doing the calculations yourself?
also use the current implied volatility at the day's end to determine
the probabilities. From everything I'm seeing so far, it appears that
the volatility and time behave accordingly...
Relative to a very strong season in 2008, sales of this highly profitable mosquito eradicator were off by about 70% this year. Additionally, quarterly global sales of our leading fungicide product were about 35% below the prior year, as a result of reduced demand in international markets.
http://tinyurl.com/yccubrn
EWA - Added some here. Expect it to go back to 52-week highs (10%+) by end of Nov.
Any position TT?
disclaimer: trading on 'gut feel' can cause serious damage to your portfolio
FCF @ 4.78....
long 5,000 DRV 19.80, will only bail if S&P takes out 1066 tomorrow.
I'm gone.
EDIT...left @ 10.20.....
URE @ 5.35......
I chose to be encouraged by the dojis the PMs put up today. IAG is my new BFF.
Edit: upon closer look the USD was printing occaisional lows between 75.70-75.80 for the first 30 minutes or so after the Fed announcement and then as the equities proceeded to crumble it clawed its' way back toward 76 for the duration reaching as high as 75.95 before settling at 75.91. That might be too close to call.
76 was the swing low before the current bottom. Breaking it means that instead of starting an unmistakeable rally, all the dollar has done is print another lower high on the daily.
Maybe it will continue lower, make a double bottom around 75, and then begin to rally harder. Couldn't say. It could all be a headfake, but today both gold and the USD acted as if yesterday's dollar action was a little blowoff top.
Also bought some IWM puts.
Shorted BXP on the run-up after Fed-speak. Delighted with the nearly 2 pt profit so far.
My ES and GC futures trades were a scratch today, barely covering my commissions. But everything else is/was working beautifully. Great day overall.
(still covered on HGSI - not sure what I"m doing with that)
But I'm a lot less short than I was at the start of the day. The dollar action sucked if you're an equity bear, and gold was marvelous. The volume on both the equities and the relevant futures contracts the past few days seem to be saying the same thing.
Another interesting little bit of circumstantial evidence was the Selling on Strength table. If the big boys were using an up day on SPX to get out of dodge, they weren't doing it with block sales of index ETFs.
HGSI - bummer to see it sell off like that after it seemed the early adopters had finished cashing in. Ah well, this is a profitable trade for me above 19.80, and if it gets too close to 25, I'll take my gains and move on.
yours. I think we are trading twins.
I've got IYR puts as well as a small bit of SRS shares. Also a few XRT and
MTB puts which I picked up yesterday and short shares of BXP today. I've
never traded quarterly options. For some reason they scare me. Is there any
reason why you went with those instead of the regulars?
I guess I'm not as bullish as everyone else is around here, though I do have some long positions going.
I have some short positions in retail (including a core put position in the RTH) and real estate (including a rather enormous SRS position) ... I really liked the volume and recovery by the SRS at day's end ... as I posted on the weekend I am looking for the retail data tomorrow to provide "a tell" about the markets ...
http://tinyurl.com/yg685hf (tech better "get its butt in gear")
I am also watching the currency triad (Euro, USD and Yen) ...
but I agree that it is mixed ... for example commodity bulls still have game here ... but I see tech being in trouble technically ...
FXE
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FXE&p=D&yr=0&m...
FXA
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FXA&p=D&yr=0&m...