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Stepping back to survey the big picture, however, we would be well advised to note that not much has changed, and the major indices remain quite precariously balanced. For those who were in the "right spots" today, it's hard to believe that the Dow closed in negative territory, and the other indices closed barely green. Declining issues still outpaced advancers, and bulls still have a lot of work to do.
I hope everyone profited from the many moves today. Have a nice evening and I will see you in the morning, if not before.
Brinks out.
exited ES longs @ 1042.50, +5....
ok, be back in a bit (again)
I came back when I had my alert tell me that the ES dipped below 1035 or above 1042...
I did add to my precious metals this morning, and also picked up some WYNN, DO, MGM, and ATPG. None of the newly added positions are particularly large. We'll have to see how we close, but with the dollar backing off and technicals extremely oversold, it's possible we've placed a ST bottom. I still don't trust this environment for much more than a minute, and I still consider it very vulnerable. Let's see if we can get a solid close to build from.
I'm planning to exit as soon as the McSum turns up. This has been a pretty decent mechanical trade signal for those trading on a longer timeframe.
Bought some GDX LEAP calls yesterday given that it was flirting with the lower trendline since march:
http://img.skitch.com/20091103-g3uyhmsrardyjqud...
Seems like I got lucky again.
I've had this particular account in 100% cash all year, and I'm trying to keep it in that direction. Hence the options as a stock substitute.
How's the new addition? I'm sure things are busy at your place these days.
Thank you.
this market will ripe your head off bull or bear. BE CAREFUL.
there will always be another opportunity.....this market is very dangerous.
Please be careful out there.
http://screencast.com/t/OKssu5Ir0
http://screencast.com/t/xUJjMkLz
old wall street adage, when volitility increases (VIX) resize your positions. someone once told me that playing in volitility is like playing in the mud, you are going to get dirty...Good luck today....
but if the bulls run the market up again ... it is at the top of my "eventually short this one" list ...
Here's what Ashraf Laidi has on the charts FYI: http://www.ashraflaidi.com/articles/fx-oil-eye-...
Hers's McHugh:
Today is Election Day in the United States, with the race for New Jersey Governor probably the best barometer of where the country's political mood is leaning nearly one year after Obamanomics has taken hold. Stocks are down mid-day Tuesday, November 3rd, 2009. It looks to us as if Tuesday's decline is part of the final leg we were expecting, as mentioned in Monday's newsletter, to finish a small Declining Bullish Wedge pattern in the S&P 500 and Industrials. It may have more downside left in this move before we get a 3 to 5 day bounce that corrects the decline over the past week. Then more decline should follow as wave (C ) down gets a grip on things. We annotated charts for the S&P 500, Industrials, and Canada's TSX mid-day Tuesday on pages 5 and 6 in Tuesday's Australia Daily Report now available at www.technicalindicatorindex.com
Mid-day Tuesday, Gold is up sharply, up 30, Silver is up .57, the HUI is up 21, and Oil is up 1.30.
Good trading...
This de-coupling by the Euro and gold is something to behold (e.g., looks to be on gold strength or flight to safety) ...
SRS trade being stifled by the $TNX bounce to 34.50 in front of the Fed announcements ... IYR prices are pinned until the $TNX comes back to reality ... I am going to be patient
If not, no trades for me.
I'm starting to feel like it is becoming an "Us vs the Fed" market.
However, do extend that thought - as Fed is far bigger and has the ear of some big greedy trading desks who know what they will do before us small investors know about it, we'd definitely loose this contest - perhaps even more than before!
However, based on what has transpired this year, I am not betting against the FED or whoever is running the SS HFT. I'd like to see an HFT day around these levels. Would be easy money.
Good trading to all.
Neoconservatism is a political philosophy that emerged in the United States of America, and which supports using American economic and military power to bring liberalism, democracy, and human rights to other countries.[1][2][3] In economics, unlike traditionalist conservatives, neoconservatives are generally comfortable with a welfare state; and, while rhetorically supportive of free markets, they are willing to interfere for overriding social purposes.[4]
My guess is you hate Evangelical conservatives.
This type of "eating your own" and "cleansing" will get you no where but in the South. Wait and see.
If Warren Buffett hadn't slipped a sharpened black swan beak between the fourth and fifth ribs of my BNI puts, this day would be unimprovable.
If I find that crafty swine, I can't be held responsible for what I might do to his Cherry Coke.
I was very confident this morning when the Euro gapped to a new ST low and broke the trend line (expected a bit more weakness on that) ... but now it looks like this will be two days of going sideways until the Fed says something ... MM's are making a pretty good effort to hold things up ... they know right where to place the short squeeze ...
Great day today.....
I sold all positions from yesterday and my single trade in AIG from this morning just now.
Hope everyone did well today.
Had a good day including +5.25 ES in 3 trades.
SRS @ 9.94....1/3 more...still holding first position @ 10.16....
Will wait to see if it pulls back again.
I heard a rumor you and TK were shacking up together, any truth to that?
YRCW.....SOLD @ 1.23 as sell order hit......
Rosa...set up the bar my good chap.....
Just do me a favor and don't mention Warren Buffett ... were it not for him, this day would be almost unimprovable.
BTW, today's market has been so distracting I don't know where I set my tea mug. I expect to find it anywhere: coat closet, litter box, freezer, balanced on my head ... anywhere.
Found my mug, btw. Microwave.
And mon amour-- while I'm greatly relieved to learn that the missing cup has been safely recovered, I must confess that I am mildly disappointed at its rather unoriginal hiding spot. I was hoping for a report of discovering it in the cupboard, or the waste basket, the laundry hamper, or perhaps the mailbox. ; )
Aside from the little dip in the second hour, there has been NO profit taking of note in HGSI so far. Utterly awesome.
I suspect I will only trade HGSI once in my life, though.
Moo!....here boy!....Moo!....(whistle....whistle).
ES finally touched prior day's pivot, 1044 odds now bumped to 70% and 1050 bumped to 35.44% @ 11:40 cst with 29.02% vol
I posted today's probabilities on the 'ol blog last night, but in case you missed it, here they are:
11/03/2009 Probabilities:
991.25 = 0.23%
1014.75 = 12.38%
1027 = 44.52%
1038.25 = 95.07%
1041.25 = 90.41%
1050.50 = 48.33%
1061.75 = 16.39%
I'm currently long ES from 1033, looking for 1038-1041... stop below lod, but watch out for 1027 too
What is your plan for the FOMC? Is the Fed statement already priced in USD or will it likely lead to more buying of the USD.
The IMF sale to India seems to have lit a fire in the Gold market.
The question for me, considering the action, is not what is priced into the USD, but to what degree the PM-Fiat Decoupling trade is on. The dollar is still rallying, taking out the most recent swing high, and the markets are doing what they usually do when that happens, and yet GLD remains in a breakout bull flag on mondo volume.
I would rather hedge my PMs with an index short (I do have puts on SPY, IYR, FXI, IWM, etc.) than take profits and wait for the dollar to finish its rally, but bear in mind I've overstayed my welcome in PM trades before.
As for the FOMC, insight on how to game it will have to come from somebody smarter than I.
The price movement in GDX where a 20% fall is just a regular correction scares me out of the PM sector, especially since I am so late to the party.
However like early September when equities started faltering, Gold was ripe for another bid as uncertainty increases. I remember David Einhorn's words where he said that Gold is not a hedge against inflation or deflation but a hedge against uncertainty. With PT Jones also all abroad the Gold train the green light seems to be on. It has effectively decoupled from the USD. How long that will last is of course yet to be seen.
The strength of the directional movements in Gold is amazing. I have to develop the fortitude or the strategy to trade it.
Have you considered a small, fire-and-forget position in extremely long-dated options (moo outlined something like this yesterday, and I've been adding, slowly, to a position in Jan 2011 GDX calls among my other plays). All you have to do (aside from keeping your capital-at-risk within your comfort zone) is monitor the miners to make sure they remain in a long-term uptrend.
There's also the short-put approach.
http://screencast.com/t/S5sWbnzf2Yq
if you look at previous posts the $$$ may be well positioned for a hair raising short covering rally.If so we know the implications for the martkets. What about TBT??? A flight to quality will coincide with a bond rally forcing rates lower. I have exited my TBT..."A man needs to know his limitations" and I have locked down a nice profit..I would rather sit and watch than particpate..
Points to watch out for with both are the S2 daily pivots at:
1.46047 - EURUSD (1.466 as I write)
1.62534 - GBPUSD (1.63005 as I write)
I'm thinking that there may be initial weakness on SPX today to touch 1020 - 1025 which may take both of these to those pivot support levels. If so, they both look like good long plays.
Interestingly all of the four indices had the expanding wedges from the November low that I identified last week, with Nasdaq & USD also having significant interior trendlines from the same low.
Original post with kemal_1's most recent update at:
http://hotoptionbabe.com/2009/11/03/jacks-delic...
I have included the full stochastics 14,3,3 & 5,3,3 as well as RSI & MACD on each chart, though I haven't had time to mark them up. The MACD's on the equity indices have all been negatively diverging for months, making lower highs when the indices have been making higher highs. At the same time volume has been declining on all three indices. The MACDs and declining volume tell us that this rally is most unlikely to be the start of a new bull market, and is unlikely to be sustained without at least a deep correction at some point.
The stochs on the equity indices are all oversold or near oversold and are turning or ready to turn. The stochs of course can remain overbought or oversold for long periods, but until the October lows are broken, and they have not yet been broken on any of these three indices, that indicates towards a short term rally at the least. The RSIs are the lowest on Nasdaq & SPX since July, and on the Dow are near the July and September lows.
Firstly the Nasdaq:
http://www.screencast.com/users/springheel_jack...
The Nasdaq is in the worst shape of the major indices. The lower channel of the rising wedge for the rally has been decisively broken, and the expanding wedge from the November lows has also been decisively broken. The October low has not yet been broken, but was touched today intraday:
Secondly the S&P500:
http://www.screencast.com/users/springheel_jack...
Major technical damage has been done to SPX. The lower channel for the rising wedge for the rally has been decisively broken, and the retest of the broken trendline last Thursday was rejected. On Friday the lower channel of the expanding wedge from the November lows was broken, and we have come back up to that broken trendline to retest it today.
Thirdly the Dow:
http://www.screencast.com/users/springheel_jack...
Interestingly, no technical damage has been done to the Dow at all. The lower channel for the rising wedge for the rally is intact. The expanding wedge from the November lows is intact, and we bounced off it intraday today.
Fourthly the US Dollar:
http://www.screencast.com/users/springheel_jack...
USD is particularly key as the very strong inverse correlation between USD and equities has held very firm since September 2008. That correlation could break down at any time, but it hasn't broken yet, and until it does, USD will remain a very good indicator of the prospects for equities.
Some technical damage has been done with USD, which has rallied strongly in recent days, and the upper channel trendline for the falling wedge for the decline since March has been broken, but the upper channel of the expanding wedge since November has not yet been reached. Instead USD has been hugging the significant interior trendline from the November low and failing to breach it in recent days. We are still a long way short of the October high at 77.5.
As with equities, the stochs on USD look ready to turn down and the RSI is at the highest since June - Aug. The picture from the MACDs is more ambiguous however.
SUMMARY:
Significant damage has been done to the rally in recent days, and we are near a very significant top for the rally, and perhaps the end of the rally altogether. We may have made that top already.
However the Dow is still in good technical shape, and USD particularly has failed to break up convincingly as yet. The real test here is the October lows for equities, and the October high for USD. Until those are broken this may still be just a significant decline, and new highs are not yet precluded. The writing is most definitely on the wall however.This rally is now rising on fumes IMO, if it can continue rising at all.
Hard to be right all the time. LOL.
It's erection day, I'm probably going to drive right on by the polling station, I feel like George Carlin today.
Mini me is in a negative downward channel:
http://livewithoscar.com/modules.php?name=Content
Oh, and Buffett bought an entire railroad for $44 billion ($34 billion plus $10 billion of debt) ... he is making a "save America bet" ...
Technically I am still watching October lows as I posted on the weekend ...
Good luck to everyone today ...
mSquare.....nice call on BAC yesterday.....
Good trading to all today!
http://screencast.com/t/KKvtPg6xIgMS
http://screencast.com/t/FioYbRyKQyB
http://screencast.com/t/8Cypt92ixJlv
Quick EUR/USD update...pretty important crossroads right now on the Daily Chart
http://tinyurl.com/yccq6z9
At the bottom of the channel.... Lets see if it holds or breaks?
GL all
watching/trading the following:
MGM
BAC
NG
ENER
UNG
FXP
SRS
VG
Today, I woke up to see BNI up by a similar amount, and since I own JAN 75 puts, I did the opposite of rejoicing. While the cost-basis is less, the day-over-day loss on the puts nearly nets out yesterday's profit on HGSI.
Grrr.
I'm sorry to hear that, RB. Perhaps your precious metals will make up for it if gold can print a new high soon.
c'est le marché
Of course, there are the PMs (and my smaller OIH position). She's in a fickle mood today, but I did always like 'em crazy.
RDY - Assuming you are are long from below 18.35, I would at least put stop at the 50 dMA around 18.80.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RDY&p=D&yr=0&m...
If I were you, I'd look to exit now with a trailing stop of around $1 which coincides with the midpoint of the BB.
Let it go if it does and look to buy it again later...
I put a stop @ 18.84 should do me fine...have it a long term affair in IRA but ........
DPTR @ 1.20....LOTTO
use caution in today's market, there will be plenty of opportunities at another time.
exited remaining longs @ 1040, for +7 on that ES trade. Prior pivot is near 1041.xx
your original direction is a tough thing to watch, but it happens to
the best of us... still haven't figured out a good game plan for that
except to just do nothing
I agree with Brinkley and Moo ... be very careful if you are long here ... the Euro-USD has not bounced and is holding its gap down ...
oh wait, they beat us in the 2004 Capital One Bowl
Eli will get his groove back
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IBN&p=D&yr=0&m...
I own this from a few days ago at better prices. I plan to add to this trade later today/tomorrow. I expect IBN to go higher (35-36) in the next month or so - along with $SPX going higher in the 1050-1080 range.
BTW, I bought back my HGSI calls.
Why'd you buy back the HGSI?
If this lupus treatment turns out to be half as boffo as they suggest possible, you start to hope HGSI becomes acquisition bait.
SRS @ 10.16.....sold AM @ 10.55 from yesterday....nice scalp...
http://tinyurl.com/yackc2r
Way to go you PM lovers...what a day!!!
Added: It was on my watch list from this morning but no position taken.
Solar has been getting punched in the gut the last couple months.
not seeing any real edge either way though for more than what today's range is currently. I'll update the probabilities a bit later....
If SPX can reach 1070 then we have a very nice H&S pattern on Dow, SPX & Nasdaq.
Too much technical damage to get much further without a major USD meltdown I suspect.
Good chance of a bounce as long as the dollar does reverse.
kemal_1 thinks EURUSD is in a wave 5 down targeting 1.46, then rally for rest of the week. It has been as low as 1.627. I'm looking for a long at the S2 pivot at 1.46047.
SPX target 1030? Could be lower but I'd like to see that being the low.
BTW, if you short gold one more time, I'm going to punch you.
Took the cool aid with YRCW @ 1.05.....small position....
Added: There isn't the kind of volume I would expect for the re-bound so be careful, it may come right back.
With 29.65% volatility, here are the new probabilities of touching certain pivots by close today:
1027 = 49.82%
1038 = 71.41%
1041.25 = 51.83%
1050 = 16%
For those of you with a different broker, it is worth a look.
TZA @ $14.5. Order to buy more @ 14.35. Stop $14.20. I think we re-visit lows of the day as EUR/USD keeps dropping.
I'm leaning towards the long side, but cautiously standing aside.
TZA - Stopped out for small loss. Darn! I bought just before the big dump!
TNA probed that 20ma on the hourly too. I'm waiting for 37.03 on TNA to get taken out before things get heated. We're basically in Friday's low range prior to the close. Sideways...
long ES @ 1037.50, looking for 1042-44. RIght now there is a 59.05% chance of touching 1044 by close with 29.12% volatility.
Off to study for a bit, and I'll be back.
http://bit.ly/4Mnzl
Happy trading......
Interesting how life is......
My 8/20 sma crossover is close to making a buy signal at the next hour. it may just be another small move up to roll over again..but you never know till you are in the trade...I think we could see the lower side of the channel at 1050 before mid day tomorrow.
http://tinyurl.com/yfme6fb
EDIT: so much for that
Nice trading with you all...Moo...Ms B...your the best.
My Russian want's ME......
Zing!
Well I'm out again for the day, but I'll be back tomorrow AM with updated probabilities. Today was a great day trading with those, so I hope the magic continues. After this week, I will post some interesting stats on trading with those probabilities to see how good of an indicator is can be to determine a trend.
Alrighty, have a good evening!
Trade my man....TRADE....
Rosa...I told Bo...."We are working on a trading relationship".......
That was LOW.....DAMN that GLL.....
You know ....I have a Harley...
BTW....I would check the content of those "Gold & Silver" chains arount his neck....before I made a choice.....
SPY - Added to Nov Calls near the close. Aiming to sell on a spike up after Fed tomorrow.
http://content.screencast.com/users/springheel_...
This is an updated version of my chart from yesterday when USD had been hugging the interior line of the expanding wedge. Today there was an intraday poke through to the upper channel of the wedge.
Interesting. Suggests reversal.
http://www.screencast.com/users/springheel_jack...
http://benbittrolff.blogspot.com/
This Dow Jones Total Market chart shows a point between the log and linear.
http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2009/11/dwc-log...
And a hell of a confluence of trendlines like a laser war and the DCW index totally tapped its 50% Fib line. Amazing, and thank you Mr. Fibonacci. You rock almost as much as Bernoulli.
Taz-Man - found a great knife for your catching pleasure... STEC!