Blue Chip Bulldog - Latest Comments in Trades for 11/02/09

Re: Trades for 11/02/09

GreekGod — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 09:28:52 -0000

I can't buy PUTS have an IRA account and not allowed....I have a stop
on it @18.35 (too low?

Re: Trades for 11/02/09

Tazman — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 08:20:33 -0000

mSquare.....nice call on BAC yesterday.....

Re: Trades for 11/02/09

Tazman — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 08:15:46 -0000

Ms B....Thank you....this is a great chart and one that I have posted @ the trading desk....simple yet compelling.

Point up....

Re: Trades for 11/02/09

morrise — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 07:08:35 -0000

Not sure what this chart is but HOLY FRIGHT!!!..MACD bear divergence and plummeting through 0...looks like this index may be heading for it's 200MA...broken TL, RSI, the whole package...what exactly is this???

Re: Trades for 11/02/09

springheel_jack — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 05:37:33 -0000

USD has been rallying hard overnight, and has been doing significant damage to both EURUSD and GBPUSD.

Points to watch out for with both are the S2 daily pivots at:

1.46047 - EURUSD (1.466 as I write)
1.62534 - GBPUSD (1.63005 as I write)

I'm thinking that there may be initial weakness on SPX today to touch 1020 - 1025 which may take both of these to those pivot support levels. If so, they both look like good long plays.

Re: Trades for 11/02/09

moo — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 05:37:12 -0000

http://www.bloomberg.com/ap...

Re: Trades for 11/02/09

humble1 (tm) — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 03:36:49 -0000

forecast: we churn today and close higher, maybe above SPX 1052. then we take off north with a huge UPDAY on wednesday and run for days!

yeee ... haaa ... !!!

Re: Trades for 11/02/09

aviat72 — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 01:58:33 -0000

Gold is on the move again after India's Central Bank buys 200 tonnes from IMF.

Re: Trades for 11/02/09

aviat72 — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 01:30:34 -0000

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc...

Value Line Arithmetic index, also showing a steeper decline. This index had a near double bottom pattern in March.

Note that this index is got reasonably close to 2007 levels in this rally!
http://finance.yahoo.com/ch...^vay;range=my;indicator=volume;charttype=candlestick;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

Re: Trades for 11/02/09

aviat72 — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 01:23:33 -0000

http://www.marketwatch.com/...

OIH is at its 50 Day MA and is also testing two trend lines.
_____________________________________________________________________
Cash on the sideline update

Investors holding the least cash in two years, AAII says
http://www.marketwatch.com/...

Re: Trades for 11/02/09

Dutch — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 00:31:18 -0000

I pointed this out in comments last week about all red, all green, all red on the hourly charts. Indeed we are still making history with our stock market.

"While up and down movements in the market are not uncommon, the specific pattern we've seen over the last few days is so rare that it has never happened before. Going back to 1928, the S&P 500 has never had a three day sequence where the index broke and closed below its 50-DMA one day, then snapped back and closed more than one percent above the 50-DMA the next day, only to sell off on the third day and close more than 1% below the 50-DMA."
http://bespokeinvest.typepa...

Re: Trades for 11/02/09

Dutch — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 00:29:27 -0000

From personal experience and what you just discovered, you may as well consider TNA in lockstep with IWM. I had a very large short on TNA earlier in the year that got a gap up open and the financials immediately started selling off. TNA refused to come down to pre-market levels regardless of the weighting of the fund.

IWM up, TNA up. IWM down, TNA down. Period.

Re: Trades for 11/02/09

Ashok — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 23:22:27 -0000

I don't know if I can......but let me try.....my very non traditional method......in the first chart, the 5 year weekly, the green channel is a continuation pattern of the blue channel.

The second chart, 20 yr monthly, on the SPX.....I will draw for you again.....the green channel will show the uptrending zone and the red channel the downtrending zone.....hopefully this will make more sense.......remember this chart is a monthly and it's final formation is confirmed at the END of the month.....

http://www.screencast.com/t...

Re: Trades for 11/02/09

jayinasia — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 23:16:00 -0000

Shanghai prints 2 month high at the lunch time break. Let's see where it closes.

Re: Trades for 11/02/09

morrise — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 22:41:41 -0000

BPI’s…we know that the Bullish Percent Index is a percentage figure, derived by finding what percent of stocks, in a index, are on PNF “BUY” signals…not just in a column of “X”s but also on buy signals…this is very powerful BREADTH, indicator and several rules have evolved on how investors should use it. Cutting to the chase, its main statement is that when a charted indexes BPI turns into a column of “O”s, that the RISK to the market has increased. Most market techs. view that as a time to become defensive with their investments. As you can see, today, despite a up market, all the BPI’s listed in this group from stockcharts.com got hammered. These are substantial corrections and, to me at least, indicate substantial damage to our markets internals and should not be passed over lightly
. http://screencast.com/t/nFf...
I have followed BPI’s for years and have learned to heed their advice..So how do we follow along and gauge what this internal indicator is trying to tell us??? After all these BPI’s can turn down and yet the markets don’t plummet for several months. I take a short cut and follow a chart that pretty much mirrors what the vast majority of stocks, as a single price, are doing and that is the S&P stock weighted index, “RSP”. This differs from the Cap weighted S&P by giving each stock within this index equal weight with the rest versus having a few high cap. stocks control the direction of the index. So for a quick check on the movement the BPI’s indicate can happen I refer to this chart..
http://screencast.com/t/1pr...
It’s not the answer to all our questions but it has helped me in the past and present…
Anyway…….just a thought.....

Re: Trades for 11/02/09

raoman — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 21:40:10 -0000

Please explain .. Im a novice. I dont get the right most (green) trendline on chart 1 or rightmost (blue) trendline on chart 2. Any 2 points form a straight line. You need ATLEAST 3 to even start a pattern, so why should those be significant?

Re: Trades for 11/02/09

Brinkley — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 20:53:44 -0000

For Taz: Here's DOG. I'll try to get to SH later if possible.

http://screencast.com/t/iqJ...

Re: Trades for 11/02/09

Ashok — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 19:56:26 -0000

Indulge you w/one more...SPX 1 yr daily:

http://www.screencast.com/t...

..../\....

Re: Trades for 11/02/09

morrise — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 19:48:45 -0000

I'm glad you liked this...I read Mark Douglas book, "Trading in The Zone" a while back and I have been able to answer yes to all the above questions..This is a business and I try to treat it as such, unemotional and totally by my criteria. I adjust my criteria but not my emotions. Anyway thats my view...I'll get back to your question regarding the Algorithms I trade with when I have a little more time....

Re: Trades for 11/02/09

Rosabarba — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 19:36:56 -0000

Thanks, moo. Much appreciated.

Edit: Curious to see if we make new highs on the gold contract this week. Strong move today, and it's within spitting distance.

Re: Trades for 11/02/09

Ashok — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 19:28:52 -0000

SPX 5 yr w/Fast Stochastic 14,3 channel: Migration from blue to green ? Moving up...?

http://www.screencast.com/t...

And the SPX 20 year, with the same message...?

http://www.screencast.com/t...

Re: Trades for 11/02/09

moo — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 18:59:55 -0000

I've been waiting for that...thanks.

Re: Trades for 11/02/09

moo — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 18:58:36 -0000

It will prove to be a very difficult task RB even for this city boy...

The decoupling process will likely take weeks maybe months to reveal itself definitively. Again. It will not be an event. It will be a process. So, trading this transition requires a leap of faith imo.

My course of action is will be to buy $1,000 way out of the money call LEAPs 1.5 to 2 years forward in gold/silver miners such as AEM, SLW, GG, GDX in one account and don't manage it too much. Maybe buy a little here and there to adjust for time decay and reduce my cost lower accordingly. The question is when do I start doing this?

I will presume that GLD will always hold $100 going forward, so any dips down to that area would be a good point to accumulate those contracts. Any sub $100 price shenanigans should be taken seriously and possibly abandon these positions.

Re: Trades for 11/02/09

mSquare — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 18:34:30 -0000

I have a Put spread on it too and nice and green. It has been making new 52-week highs since past few months. There were some buyout rumors a few weeks ago when it surged big...then pulled back when RDY insiders (promoters) said that was false.

So, if I were you, I'd look to buy PUTs to protect downside (e.g. Mar 17.5 Puts about $0.70 or lower) or keep tight actual stops (not mental)

Re: Trades for 11/02/09

ropey — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 18:28:56 -0000

Second stimulus now being considered..

http://www.bloomberg.com/ap...