-
Website
http://bluechipbulldog.blogspot.com/ -
Original page
http://bluechipbulldog.blogspot.com/2009/10/trades-for-102809.html -
Subscribe
All Comments -
Community
-
-
Top Commenters
-
Popular Threads
All Comments
First. Let us have a moment of silence for our dear friend Short Yen. He is dead. He lived his life fully and had +203 pips when he passed gently last night. Since he was the biggest trade of the year, he will be missed. Let us bow our heads.
*Silence*
Is this a turn? I don't know but it is shaping up to look like it. However, we have been down this road before. As stated, I wasn't in this last rally so I'm starting to lick my lips. I can't argue with the weakness but we have YET to get to levels that would make me start shorting like mad. If your hedged up, good. If your sitting on your hands, good. If you're thinking of going all in SHORT or LONG, please reconsider. There will be plenty of time to catch a trend.
Just to add. I see traders on other blogs that have been shorting the hell trying to catch a top. It looks like they finally got one and now they want to reverse because we are a little bit oversold. Then you have the ones who have been waiting and waiting for a short opportunity. They failed to pull the trigger and now they are hoping for a bounce so they can short but who says the bounce won't be a rally and this was just a dip? Please. I'm not here to laugh at these people. We have all been there. I'm only here to remind you to keep your head on straight and be fully aware of any biases you may have. Also, a good solid action plan with 3 possibilities and stops and limits are good too!
http://www.screencast.com/users/springheel_jack...
The key trendlines I have drawn are in black, and two are from last November and the last is from March to define the lower channel trendline for the rally to date.
We fell through the lower channel of the lower main rally rising wedge today, and we closed on the lower channel line of the expanding ascending wedge topping pattern for the latest wave of the rally. Two things are interesting about that line. The first is that all SPX declines in recent months have bounced off it. The second thing is that the lower channel is the latter part of a key expanding wedge dating back to the low last November.
Except for a break downwards for a month in June/July, we have been in that expanding wedge since the end of April which makes it very significant indeed.
That doesn't mean we'll bounce off it again tomorrow, though I still think we probably will. It does though make it very much the key lower trendline for a bounce, and if we break it with enough confidence that we fall past kemal_1's line in the sand at 1019, then it should mean that the wave up from July has finished, and if this was an abc rally rather than abc of an abcde bull market wave, it should mean that primary wave 3 down of the bear market has started.
If we do bounce here Brinkley, this upper trendline gives us the likely top of the next wave up.
I think we will bounce and will rally hard into next week. I think it might be fast and short-lived though. The next chart is worth a look IMO. I worked it up it from a chart of Joe's:
http://www.screencast.com/users/springheel_jack...
If this pivot cycle holds, and we rally from here of course, we might see a very significant high next Tuesday or Wednesday. If we keep falling, we might see a very significant low.
thank you.
I had drawn the lower trend line on my own chart but didn't draw (or see) the upper line. That is pretty interesting.
More importantly, if we bounce here, it tells us where the next wave up is likely to top as well, which is hugely interesting.
I am on my knees praying for a bounce here to maintain this expanding wedge..
Good to see you Jay. :-)
Market will be oversold when everyone stops trying to play a bounce.
action during April-Sept
I was able to ace a FAZ trade this morning and I put orders in for some /ES and FAS at 1040 because I had to be away today.
Fantastic!
A quick wrap -- obviously this has been extremely bearish action, with stocks getting absolutely trashed across the board. We were very oversold last night-- at this point we're at even more extreme levels. Many of us were on the lookout for a bounce of some sort today, but the selling was brutal and relentless from start to finish. We've broken some key levels, and the ferociousness of the sell-off is a concern as far as the big picture goes. Many individual stocks have plunged way past standard corrective pullbacks, and the high volume close below support is somewhat ominous. As I mentioned yesterday, the character and reach of any near-term bounce will be important to weigh and measure very carefully.
The dollar continued to strengthen, and accordingly, precious metals dumped hard. GLD is still holding above breakout support, but the individual stocks have been hit hard. There are double tops in place on the daily charts of many. If you want to see what can happen with these, take a look at KGC and plan accordingly. The strongest in the group may not follow suit, but it's a scenario you should be prepared for.
The oil stocks weren't spared the carnage, but USO and OIH are holding at or above support on the daily chart. I am watching for an attractive re-entry, but will hold off until some signs of stabilization are evident.
I hope everyone managed to get on the right side of the trade and profit from these moves. The short plays have been just fantastic, but I have covered most of my positions for now. Backing slowly away from my trading desk.......
Brinks out.
Here is a chart of a possible scenario going into November 11 holiday.
http://snpmonster.blogspot.com/2009/10/spx-nove...
I'm up extra early since I need to schedule my last semester of classes.... EVER!
For the time being, here are the probabilities of touching certain ES pivots by today's end:
1074.42 = 30.23%
1072 (prior) = 39.6%
1067.33 = 60.46%
1062.17 = 88.79%
1055.08 = 70.67%
1049.92 = 45.06%
These were calculated b/w 3:15-3:30 pm cst yesterday for today, so they are as accurate as can be. Notice how the trade to 1055 was pretty good with respect to the trend. I still like the 1067 trade too...
If the S&P can't find 1060 to close we will have broken the lower trendline since March also.
and I agree that if we cross and close below 9825 on the $INDU (confirming the broken trendline from March) ... it will be difficult to trade the upside at all ...
Agree with you on the possibility of getting whiplashed. Many traders will be agreeing with you on that.
Another possible scenario would be a low intensity retest today of the 50 SMA and then a low volume back test up to at least the 20 SMA over the next few days into the end of the month. If the institutions were trying to shake out weak handed longs, that would be the volume price signature I would look for. As nasty as this little pullback has been, we still haven’t achieved a normal 3 box selling reversal on the daily $SPX average true range chart.
Good luck.
I am exiting my SRS position from yesterday and standing aside ... my gut tells me to look for a reversal today ...
Visa looks interesting today and the futures are down around -5.75 points as of now
Crude Oil reports at 10:30am as well.
I'll be watching USD$ and EUR/USD today for any weakness as today.
http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php
I am sending you an email right now from my other email address
13:50 eastern time
$NYHL
I've hidden the actual H/L prices and looked at just the moving averages. The last time we've been this close to MA cross was in July.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYHL&p=D&yr=3...
AMZN is showing amazing relative strength. I think it is benefiting from the broad market weakness since bears are hedging with AMZN longs!
Look at the price action between 10:00AM and 10:05 AM. The NQs lost 5-6 points at 10AM but AMZN jumped up almost 80c as the lower home sales news hit. You would expect some kind of positive correlation with the QQQQs but as the market edged lower till the waterfall at 10:45AM, AMZN charged up to test 125 from 122.50ish. AMZN had a strong negative correlation to the rest of the market till until 10:40AM!
---------------------------------------------
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NAMO&p=D&yr=2...
NAMO (COMP Oscillator) is at the 2nd lowest level in the past few years, approaching previous October levels.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYMO&p=D&yr=2...
So is the NYMO (NYSE Oscillator)
RUT:SPX is broken below the Keltner channels and the 200 Day SMA. Not done that since end of May.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$RUT:$SPX&p=D&...
/ES volume was up so let's hope that's good enough.
http://www.safehaven.com/article-14811.htm
Dow Transports vs. Nasdaq 1987 Shows Crash of 2009 Is Underway
I'm off to the gym to shake off the stress...
Hope everyone did well today.
1) I was out for most of the day and wasn't too active
2) The PMs continue to puke.
Took profits in STI, LMT and some of XRT and PRU puts. Still holding SRS and TZA.
I don't want to talk about TBT.
Edit: Just realized the PRU order never filled. Ooops.
http://www.screencast.com/users/ChickNLittle/fo...
http://screencast.com/t/unF0Sv1h
got stopped out of ES long @ 1045, -2... about an hour ago
EDIT...Damn Pink...you left the gate open again......I gotta go find Moo......fast....
http://www.verticalsolutions.com/forecasts.html
For $spx scalpers on the one minute, it has pushed above the ST downtrend line.
Stocks are down sharlply mid-day Wednesday, the S&P 500 down 16 points, the Industrials down 80, the NASDAQ plunging 45 points. A decisive break below 1,030 in the S&P 500 would signal catastrophic wave (C ) down has started. There is a Declining Bullish Wedge in the Industrials that needs a bit more decline to finish, which is signaling wave b-down of (E) up is nearing completion and wave c-up to a final top for (B) is close to starting. However, you can see there are momentum warning signs that market psychology is shifting, that stocks are being passed from strong hands to weak, that distribution typically seen at significant tops is taking place. The wave c-up bounce cound disappoint and produce a truncated top. The point is we are sitting at a high risk juncture here in stocks. Rallies could be used to raise cash.
added: http://www.cnbc.com/id/33505831
On the other hand, not sure if the market will get there today as it is too technically damaged.
This doesn't really look like technical destruction to me, but I could be wrong.
Missed a lot of ES action so far, but those 55 and 49 targets were right on the money!
NICE trade
but I am beginning to buy the dip in front of lunch ... focusing on a few leveraged ETF's ...
congrats to rosabarba on his PRU ... in fell off the cliff this morning ...
----------------------------------
in TNA at 39.05 (looking for more but you anxious bulls keep getting in the way of low risk entries) ... ;-)
-----------------------
ok ... no more bottom fishing for me ... 9825 breached on $INDU
http://screencast.com/t/nPRATuKkqq9
http://www.flickr.com/photos/8258970@N03/
mind the gap below
URRE.....QTWW.....DPTR on my screen.....
Also....MPEL....BIG volume yesterday @ 5.11 range.....
Too much work to trade, have not been able to read much of the sentiment here, surely it's changed to neutral from bullish at these levels.
http://tickersense.typepad.com/
In hindsight, it was best to not enter longs for the most part in swing trades, and probably "slim pickens" in day trades over the past week.
I did add to STO, when XOM reports that could move the pile.
MGM was a quick $11.88 to $11.59 loss, thank goodness for stops.
Dangerous sentiment continues.
I heard the Obama alternative energy spiel, but the only stock that moved was the pink VWDRY. Anybody trade/own have an opine on this space? PBW was one I was also considering instead of FAN or TAN or GEX.
Goldman Sachs Reduces Third-Quarter GDP Forecast to 2.7% from 3.0%: http://www.cnbc.com/id/33505824
SDS @ 39.47.....
EDIT....Going with Pink's pivots.....he better be RIGHT.....
Try this:
http://webmeeting.dimdim.com/portal/MeetingJoin...
Very cool!
NCS @ 1.64.....this is a knife.....don't tell Ms B.....
http://www.hardrightedge.com/tour/gap.htm (the huge gap shows a strong directional move)
it is on my radar as a short set up ...
fwiw ... I suspect that this trade set up (called a Hole in the Wall) will begin to play out in several stocks and sectors ...
DPTR @ 1.36....LOTTO
ANADIGICS (ANAD:$3.47,00$0.03,000.87%) reports Q3 sales of $36.7 mln, ahead of the Street view of $34 mln. Non-GAAP loss was $0.10 per share, narrower than expectations of a loss of $0.15 per share.
For Q4, the company expects sales to increase 5% to 8% sequentially, or roughly $38.5 mln to $39.6 mln, vs. expectations of $38 mln. Non-GAAP loss is seen in the range of $0.08 to $0.10 per share, vs. expectations of a loss of $0.10 per share.
hedge funds earlier I will gamble on going for the convergence. So far
its 50/50 as of last night's tally.
EDIT: WENT LONG AT $SPX 1053 VIA SSO IN RETIREMENT ACCOUNT
still have SDS 50% position hedged in regular account
EDIT: closed hedge and SDS for +7.5% from 1098 and went long 50% position at $SPX 1052 via SSO
I do not plan to get whipsawed to death. We either rally off it strongly or continue to slide and I'll stay out of the way.
E/S Bart7 replied:
Four phrases—Black Thursday, Black Friday, then Black Monday, and Black Tuesday—are commonly used to describe this collapse of stock values. All four are appropriate, for the crash was not a one-day affair. The initial crash occurred on Thursday, October 24, 1929, but the catastrophic downturn of Monday, October 28 and Tuesday, October 29 precipitated widespread alarm and the onset of an unprecedented and long-lasting economic depression for the United States and the world. This stock market collapse continued for a month.
“ Anyone who bought stocks in mid-1929 and held onto them saw most of his or her adult life pass by before getting back to even.
Amazing activity by the market-maker.
Added: ... and one of them was a PM. How messed up is that?
I'm showing decent support on the hourly PnF average true range for the $RUT at 574.08 (plus or minus 0.0015%) and major PNF daily potential support at 560, plus or minus 0.005%.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Hercules-Offshore...
entered in long @ 1047 $ES_F = hit some fib zones and vol extreme here
Lessee what happens if it makes it back to that intraday pivot at 43.09.
http://tinyurl.com/oakgub
fwiw ... there was a guest post about the VIX over at SOH ... I posted this response and chart ... this may or may not interest you
---------------------------------------
I would suggest that VIX rises are highly dependent on the US Dollar holding its gains here ... every time the USD falls back the VIX begins to explore its lows (e.g., they have only briefly de-coupled in the last year) ...
http://tinyurl.com/yjkdnow
TNA - Bought some @ $38.90, will buy more $38.7 if it gets there. Currently stop is at 2% loss but may sell earlier if EUR/USD starts heading back down.
YRCW @ 3.65 might play again...no position....
This is when I notice they probe the bottom price channels multiple times just wringing out all those stops.
I hate it when I watch a stock all day and every long entry goes lower and lower to my next range. I get bored and start flipping charts like flipping channels on the TV. Then I go back to my stock just as it pops which happens way too fast for me to jump in.
They were mentioned on Bloomberg 20 minutes ago. Their Balanced Fund has apparently been a top performer in both a 5 and 10 year analysis. I think they said it averaged 26% over five years. Could that have this kind of impact on the stock?
fwiw ... I like one method that Elder suggests for measuring the success of trades ... which is % of channel ... he suggests that taking over 50% of the channel is an "A" grade ...
Just closed my STI puts because it looks like it doesn't want to go down any more right now. If it rallies enough I'll reload with Dec puts.
sold it @ 13.94
NCS went again @ 1.91....stopped out @ 1.97....scalp...
LONG SOHU 55.8
LONG BBH 92.58
YRCW...ready to leave.....falling....
60 minutes ago: $USDJPY seen at 90.40 after tomorrow's GDP disappointment will break the Oct trend line $$
These are KEY TREND LINE SUPPORT for $SPX 1047 and $EURUSD 1.47 $$
Good luck to all
..../\.....
added:
Symantec Shares Spike as Firm Reports Earnings, Announces $1 Billion Share Buyback
Added: First time home buyers tax credit will continue until April 2010 it looks like also.
GDP tomorrow should initiate some fun ...
http://tinyurl.com/ykuy2b3
Be careful out there.
This 0.898 level is where I have my bottom TL from the March low on the daily. Maybe it will provide a small bounce.
$SPX monthly
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=M&yr=3&...