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I'm sorry I wasn't able to join in the comments today or update positions as I'd hoped to. Some days are like that-- I know they can be for moo as well. When I decompress a bit, be it an hour from now or over the weekend, I'll run charts and put some up for consideration and discussion. I hope everyone enjoyed the day and was able to profit from the volatility. I know I have missed some questions recently, and I'll try to answer when I catch up with the blog-- but if I forget, please don't hesitate to ask again when you notice that I'm around.
Have a wonderful weekend, and do something unrelated to the market for at least part of it-- it is addictive, and at times can seem to obscure the rest of the world that's out there. And on that note, I think I might possibly need a drink. Cheers, and go have some fun!
As a note, BIDU's been trading near the upper line of its uptrend since May and its pulls back every time to the lower line. Also, I have noticed it has maintained a range of max and min distances from its 50ma throughout. This may be a coincidence, but it has always pulled back near the 50ma before it starts another up leg. I think this may be a good candidate for selling a call spread if it stalls around 440. When you or anyone else get a chance, comments/rebuttals would be appreciated. Sorry for not posting its chart - comp issues.
I think the fact that the stock staged a solid breakout into new all-time highs today could make recent trading patterns less relevant for the near-term, but time will tell. The company reports earnings after the bell on Monday, and I'll be stepping aside, other than a possible scalp or two if the action warrants that, until the numbers are released.
Are you a traditional lady with the usual macd, stoch setups or more swing trading? You seem to catch some fabulous moves on some stocks. For example i was trying to swing trade GS, the other day was doing well, thought it was going to go down but then that silly treasury thing popped up and flipped it all out, set my stop too tight et voila then it precedes to rollover as planned - nice eh? Worst part was the charts were saying yeah we're going up but my own opinion overrode that..classic mistake.
Anyway any technical tips or insights ( not philosophy i'm fine with that lol )...for intraday would be helpful. I cannot see really what i am doing wrong from intuition and picking direction for the most part, i think it's primarily risk management and maybe a tad impatient so i'm probably going to revert back to IC's and credit spreads way OTM to lick my wounds - they're relatively 'safe'. Currently i keep my eye on the fx, gaps on the major future indexes, cvwap with 2 deviations, internals and intraday volume breakdown - it all seems to work beautifully except when i throw money at it. That tells me my money management is virging on the crap side lol.
Your BIDU trade was awesome, how do you know just whent to dump? Index trading seems to throw me so many curveballs recently, maybe i just hit a bad patch. I've read many books, listened to alot of people, don't care which side to trade and done pretty well >some< of the time but i am not consistent and it drives me potty. I make lots of $$ then throw it away on reckless impulse trades - sure way to exit trading all together.
What for you is a high probability trade setup? Can you provide an example or two with your stuff? And yes i know i don't have to trade everyday :)...
I am only using options right now which is a shame, still haven't got access to futures or forex at the broker yet :/ I feel the latter is better for intraday and options more for insurance and longer term stuff ( although close to opex they can be good when the premium has been cut right now).
thanks
Selloff took place at same price as on Wednesday at /ES 1092 area!
Maybe GS in concert with MS pulling to rug out here, you know our recent new "commercial banks".
Certainly looks like it was the same set of sellers to me.
I will be short if we get back up to 1082 again....
A BB stock no less. No physical stops allowed.
Just to note, yesterday after the ES close, I computed the probabilities of reaching the different pivot levels for today, and 1084.50 had a 55.87% chance, whereas 1098.75 had a 51.84% chance. So far the premarket high is 1095, only 3 pts away from 1098. Pre-market is now showing me a 23.50% chance of touching 1084.50 and a 65% chance of hitting 1098.75.... so odds are better for going long...
I'm using the TOS probability analysis tool for the probabilities of these levels being reached by market close
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087...
Both in answering the question and in his prepared text, Mr. Bernanke again beseeched Congress to act soon to give regulators “resolution authority” to cope with the imminent collapse of a big financial firm other than a bank, and to address other vulnerabilities in the regulatory regime exposed during the crisis.
Lets say a home builder builds a house...They go to a commercial bank and request lets say $100,000 at short term wholesale rates to be manufactured to construct a house then mark it up to $200,000 and put a for sale sign on it.
A home buyer sees it, falls in love and runs to a commercial bank and requests $200,000 to be manufactured at long term retail rates.
And buys it.
Now lets say after the whole operation is balanced...The Home builder comes out with a yield of $30,000 free and clear profit to buy things.
The Bank gets a Mortgage asset worth $200,000 plus $5,000 of interest from the short term money creation requested by the Home builder that the home builder paid off when the Home buyer bought the house.
The home buyer gets a dream home and owes $200,000 that they will spend around 30 years working to pay off.
And the total money supply has now expanded by $200,000
That is the basics.
The USA imports 60 billion dollars a month of raw materials and finished goods and now with the Internet many services to sustain itself...
Any silver and gold coins spent into an economy dependant upon imports would circulate out and never come back. The gold in the Treasury has a book value of 11 billion dollars...that would be sucked out in days if used to pay for imports and if sold in the market would be 159 Billion or enough to pay for imports for 3 months tops.
The top says this is money...Or else...period end of story....
One more and I am done.....
You Farmer are on the Land owned by the LORD of the land and will pay tribute to the LORD of 1 Gold coin a year...
Where do I get this GOLD coin?
You can take one short ton of grain to the grainery of the LORD and there you will be given a GOLD coin for it and then you can give the gold coin to the servant of the LORD...
What if I refuse?
Then the LORD will drive you from the Land that the LORD is the LORD of...
There you go an abundant supply of free food to power your wildest hopes and dreams...Lies and delusions...
Just some thinking material for the weekend......Moo could be right about silver making a BIG move in the next few months....FWIW....
Also, I posted yesterday something about William O'Neill's book. I am enjoying it, but he seem to be a little harsh on validating certain patterns and trashing others. Also, he is mostly looking (so far, I am only 1/3 through the book) long term trades via weekly charts. Any opinions on his work? Thanks and good luck to you (not that you need it) :-)
I did notice your earlier comments/questions about O'Neil, but couldn't respond at the time. I don't know if my approach to trading has been heavily influenced by him or not, but I do agree with many of the general principles he lays out. I also still consider his "How to Make Money in Stocks" as an invaluable guide to trading and an excellent foundation from which to branch out and individualize. It's the first book I recommend to traders when asked, although there are many others. I look at multiple time frames when evaluating a stock, but daily and weekly chart views are very important in keeping the "big picture" in mind at all times. One of the most common pitfalls in trading I see is when traders micro-focus on only very recent action without considering the greater context. Best of luck to you and thanks for your comments. : )
Company - Ticker symbol(s) - Percentage of ETF - Website
Alamos Gold Inc. AGI.TO; 5.11%; www.alamosgold.com
Allied Nevada Gold Corp. ANV.A; 2.22%; www.alliednevada.com
Andean Resources Ltd. AND.TO; AND.ASX; 2.99%; www.andean.com.au
Aurizon Mines Ltd. AZK; ARZ.TO; 3.52%; www.aurizon.com
Avoca Resources Ltd. AVO.AX; 2.06%; www.avocaresources.com.au
Avocet Mining PLC. AVM.L; 0.88%; www.avocet.co.uk
Coeur d'Alene Mines Corp. CDE; CDM.TO; 6.2%; www.coeur.com
Colossus Minerals Inc. CSI.TO; 0.89%; www.colossusminerals.com
Detour Gold Corp. DGC.TO; 1.38%; www.detourgold.com
Dominion Mining Ltd DOM.AX; 1.33%; www.dml.com.au
European Goldfields Ltd. EGU.TO; 2.13%; www.egoldfields.com
Fronteer Development Group Inc. FRG; FRG.TO; 2.37%; www.fronteergroup.com
Gabriel Resources Ltd. GBU.TO; 1.55; www.gabrielresources.com
Gammon Gold Inc. GRS; GAM.TO; 4.32%; www.gammongold.com
Gold Wheaton Gold Corp. GLW.V; 1.07%; www.goldwheaton.com
Golden Star Resources Ltd. GSS; GSC.TO; 3.31%; www.gsr.com
Great Basin Gold Ltd. GBG; GBG.TO; 2.54%; www.greatbasingold.com
Hecla Mining Co. HL; 3.8%; www.hecla-mining.com
Jaguar Mining Inc. JAG.TO; 3.67%; www.jaguarmining.com
Kingsgate Consolidated Ltd. KCN.AX; 2.96%; www.kingsgate.com.au
Kirkland Lake Gold Inc. KGI.TO; 2.41%; www.klgold.com
Lake Shore Gold Corp. LSG.TO; 1.78%; www.lsgold.com
Medusa Mining Ltd. MML.AX; 1.22%; www.medusamining.com.au
Lingbao Gold Co Ltd. 3330. HK; 0.52; www.lbgold.com
Minefinders Corp Ltd. MFN; MFL.TO; 2.79%; www.minefinders.com
New Gold Inc. NGD; NGD.TO; 6.13%; www.newgoldinc.com
Northgate Minerals Corp. NXG; NXG.TO; 3.11%; www.northgateminerals.com
Novagold Resources Inc. NG; NG.TO; 2.74%; www.novagold.com
Real Gold Mining Ltd. 0246. HK; 0.80%; www.realgoldmining.com
Romarco Minerals Inc. R.V; 1.69%; www.romarco.com
Rubicon Minerals Corp. RBY; RMX.TO; 2.17% www.rubiconminerals.com
San Gold Corp. SGR.V; 3.73%; www.sangoldcorp.com
Semafo Inc. SMF.TO; 2.71%; www.semafo.com
Silver Standard Resources Inc. SSRI; SSO.TO; 6.7%; www.silverstandard.com
SilverCorp Metals Inc. SVM; SVM.TO; 3.10%; www.silvercorpmetals.com
St Barbara Ltd. SBM.AX; 1.6%; www.stbarbara.com.au
US Gold Corp. UXG; UXG.TO; 1.24%; www.usgold.com
Ventana Gold Corp. VEN.TO; 1.21% www.ventanagold.com
In assessing how far up the markets might go here, I have seen a couple of A = C projections for the $SPX (1144, 1158) and a variety of EW projections over at Stockcharts (some of them rather poor) ... but after this last week I am now technically questioning if the current topping process will be strong enough to reach even 1121 in the short term ... for example the transports and small cap’s failed horribly this week … clearly cracks are starting to appear ...
http://tinyurl.com/yzcukg7 (still no confirmation)
http://tinyurl.com/yzllbk8 (I am watching lower trend line more closely)
http://tinyurl.com/ykpkpy8 (notice relationship to big cap’s)
However it is still a mixed picture so I am NOT calling a top … if the $SPX can close above 1102.50 then I will re-assess AND a close above 1108.30 will probably change my mind about all I have mentioned ... I am watching these specific areas of the $SPX on any moves up - 1095, 1102.50, 1108.30, 1121, 1144, 1158 ... on the downside 1071 must be solidly breached and because concurrent VIX and USD up moves will have to be a part of any significant downside move by the market I am currently not too bearish ... here is another reason that I am not too bearish in the short term …
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f7f6zn9akLY (it is worth looking at his September video)
http://tinyurl.com/yhewk2e (a chart I am beginning to mark up)
It caught my attention that the tape on Friday was rather odd with the VIX, VXN and RVX moving up all day and yet the TNX and TYX were firm ... usually the $TNX moves down with the markets so I am watching bonds more closely this week …
http://tinyurl.com/yzk4ca3
This song may be appropriate to listen to (a couple of times) before the opening on Monday …
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LiE1VgWdcQM
Steenbarger covered his short late Friday too [ http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2009/10/thoughts... ].
"As we approached the Wednesday and Thursday lows, however, I noticed that we only had a little over 500 NYSE, NASDAQ, and ASE registering 20-day lows. That was about the same as Wednesday's level and below Thursday's."
"In short, we were weak; just not outstandingly so."
Buying at /ES 1072 with stop at 1068 should provide good risk vs reward, since if 1070 is broken, /ES goes to 1050.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/worldwide/
I like Dr. Brett as he can be very helpful ... but I don't trade like him so I do not follow his trades ...
It was good to learn what I learned this week with a paper trading account rather than a real money one.
Just my 2 cents (which used to be worth a nickel before USD debasement)
"learning to trade with paper money" is a waste of time - it is different with your real hard to earn impossible to reset money
the SHORT BOND trade that happened earlier this year. In the long run, the
dollar will be weak and get weaker. I don't think it will fall off a cliff
though. These major changes in the economic landscape move like fault lines
(about 2-3 cm/year).
And yes, I will be trading 50, 100 and 150% positions when I get my real money.
I agree with Moo that internals currently support short positions ... but as long as the ES stays above 1071 then the risk-reward is poor to enter new shorts here (imo) ... watching the Euro for clues through next Tuesday ...
Glad that I did not reverse and go long this morning (when I got stopped out of everything except some long term IRA positions) ... my clue to stay out was that the note yields have stayed up all day (e.g., going the same direction as volatility) ... also did anyone notice today that all the volatility indexes are up BUT the $CPC is not?
I've been mentioning 1093, plus or minus 0.005%, for quite awhile as PnF daily major potential support/resistance level. Its gotten into or slightly above that level 5 times in the last 8 trading days, but hasn't been able to hold it. In the meantime the gap from Oct 14 filled. Below that is the gap from Oct. 8, 1057-1058 zone. Hourly PnF potential support/resistance levels are at 1076 and 1069, plus or minus 0.0015%.
meaning to me. I think the home credit is a fairly direct stimulus to a
broad contingent of our society whether or not the sales would have taken
place anyway is a variable totally open to assumption.
Given the current economic environment, which do you think is the most probable? That is why some of the lower end housing issues have subsided, but we continue to see problems in the high end market. Unless you are an owner in the Hamptons, where housing prices have increased by 30% because of all the GS bonus money going around.
EDIT: Condos aren't covered in any of the figures.
Added: The purchases of furniture, TV's etc were made because in the past when most people moved they were moving up to larger homes and had more room for more "stuff". I think that trend may be reversing and more people may be moving down to smaller homes.
Would rather wait a session or two to see where the volume stalls out, no?
Did you see MPEL yesterday?.....Also WUHN....on my list
GL
http://siliconinvestor.advfn.com/readmsg.aspx?m...
Also watching NCS....
* Q3 adj EPS $0.02 vs loss/shr est $0.01
* Q3 rev $153.7 mln vs est $159.5 mln
* Says audit panel overseeing a rev recognition probe
* Shares down 2 percent
Oct 22 (Reuters) - Digital video editing and software firm Avid Technology Inc (AVID.O) posted a surprise third-quarter profit, helped by a 40 percent drop in operating expenses, and said its audit panel is overseeing a probe into revenue recognition on certain product shipments.
btw ... a 8% to 10% decline at the open is VERY severe ... that's the kind of thing that destroys trading accounts quickly ...
-----------------------
down 15% now
since there are many new traders on SOH, moo's site, etc (and I have noticed that many of them have follow me individually) ... I felt it was important to speak up ... in addition many blogs and chat rooms are visited by people simply pumping stocks (so they can get out of positions) and so I felt a "flare warning" was necessary for these newer traders ...
I wish you well with your trading ...
Anyway amazing RIMM is the only major that's fumbled everyone else has pretty much killed it...i thought this Q would be the one that'd nail the rally...simply amazing really.
moo, I know you've been away due to illness for a bit this week. Wanted to see if you had any strong feelings on Gold and PMs in general over the next few months that you wouldn't mind sharing. Seems like a dollar bounce is overdue and wonder if that gap up in early Oct on Gold is going to get filled prior to a continued move up. thanks in advance
But I will later....Thanks
Good trading to everyone today.
------------------------------
btw ... I had to upgrade my trading software late last night (and it did not go well) ... so I will be busy repairing that today ...
found it.
greedy with my mutual funds up 34% YTD, will keep TWM until I get
stopped out.
Here's the H/S I was telling you about. Sorry I can't give you an AUD/USD
pair chart. Jing sucks on my computer here. Maybe it's all the pirated
software. Hahahaha.
Anyway, you may want to watch it as it should resolve itself early Monday
(Asia time)
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FXA&p=60&yr=0&...
SOL @ 4.17.....
Self-Loathing Friday.
Thanks for listening.
Oh well, back to the drawing board.
+1,332.43 PERCENT
You don't see that every day!
EDIT...out 11.87.....
http://pragcap.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/10/l...
I have a sneaking suspicion that if there is to be any significant downside pressure in the coming months/years apart from a simple upsurge in volatility, that it would originate from EM land.
EPI (Indian ETF) - Bought Nov OTM Calls on the cheap. Already own lots of stock but think a 5-10% rise in next 2 weeks and this is a trading buy rather than add to stock being held for the longer term.
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=epi
If I were buying (more) stock, I'd watch the 50 dMA, about 5% lower to use as the stop.
Went DAN @ 7.06.....
http://tinyurl.com/yzuuvfr
Monday, Tuesday, there will be a sharp retracement down to 1.49 - 1.50. Then the final ascent to 1.52 - 1.53.
Regarding SPX, I expect a new recovery high today, which is followed by a sharp retracement early next week. Basically following EUR/USD in direction. Then the final top either end of next week or beginning of November.
If we get up to 1105 in the SPX cash today, I will buy, (sell ES short) my first short position.
ADDED, Kemal_1 update:
I need to post a correction and update. Obviously, there is no upturn coming. The reason is simple, my labeling this morning was 'too late', EUR/USD is already in the subwave 2 retracement, consolidation.
The corrected EUR/USD chart is here
http://tinyurl.com/yjvyybo:
The old (and wrong) one was here:
http://tinyurl.com/yzuuvfr
Gold, oil and EUR/USD is holding up well. I am expecting a breakout in EUR/USD by Tuesday at the latest (move to 1.52). SPX will follow and CLOSE above 1100.
My short buying is pushed back by two days, starting next Tuesday and lasting up to Friday.
I am 95% confident of the correctness of the new chart.
Thought's, comments anyone?
There goes TIVO.....
silver seems to be bucking here...
http://www.gamingthemarket.com/wp-content/uploa...
Try $IXF and you may be able to find it.
TZA @ 11.90
I feel lucky.....
$TICK intensity is strengthening to the down side and I've been adding to short positions as it spikes in the +200 to +300 area.
This Doji is confused enough,thank you.
(never mind ... I re-read the post)
Added: I'm not calling it either way. I think momentum is to the downside but it's a coin toss for me.
TZA looking good .....steady eddy.
EPI @ 21.19
looking long term India
stop 8%
Be careful - I'd set my stops tighter for now. The biggest Indian company by market cap and almost 10% of the indexes (and EPI) is Reliance. It is currently in India's supreme court due to fights between the two Ambani brothers. It could jump up-down depending on legal action or absense there-of. If/when it moves, it may have a huge effect on the Indian markets
I continue to stand aside here ... if the markets had a chance of breaking 1071 they would have done so by now ...
One thing is obvious about today though ... the $SPX is going to have a VERY difficult time getting to 1,100 again ... the top may be in here ...
I have been mentioning 1071 since Wednesday (after I looked at some wave analysis by Kemal) ... not sure if I was the first here ... overall I sense that we are finally topping here and I am not as bullish as some (stockcharts keeps mentioning 1145, which is an A = C area) ... I have a difficult time seeing a bounce above 1100 after today ... if the $SPX gets above 1108 I will re-assess my stance ...
I will continue to double my posts between here and SOH ... I think that some of Tim's trading and blogging focuses are changing a bit as he begins to manage his new hedge fund so I am looking for other connections ...
many of these silver miners are way over sold on the daily RSI (PAAS, SSRI, SWC). Not yet on the weekly. I saw your comments earlier about silver looking bullish. Good entry on these?
COP @ 52
Strong buy....
A little bird flew on my shoulder and whispered it to me.
GS and MS had huge buyers come into the last 10 minutes...largest volume bar of the day for them.......
Hope everyone had a great day....... Have not traded much since I covered my shorts yesterday morning.... but plan to be a little more active next week. Will try to post a few updated charts of the /ES, $DXY and EUR/USD over the weekend.
All the best.....
Peace out!!
You had mentioned the $IXF a little while ago and I'm curious why you watch it as opposed to XLF. I kind of like being able to see the volume available on XLF but want to be using the better of the two.
Thanks to everyone for another great week of my continuing education.
I have rarely if ever seen a move like this in a mega-cap when the rest of the market is so negative. The stock kept on climbing one stair-level after another.
I have fairly complex option/stock position set up today which will be profitable as long as it closes below 125 on Nov Opex. It is heavy theta positive but delta/vega/gamma negative though so it will have big swings till the Opex. The challenge of course is the next four weeks. I will have to hedge heavily when it approaches 125. The challenge of course is to avoid whipsaw.
Is a 25% run on one day good enough for the next few weeks or do you expect this to continue running?
ii) if one owns a stock, delta is +ve while the rest are zero.
Let me guess -- you own something like 100X shares of AMZN and wrote something like 4X calls?
------------------------------------------
I was looking at the historical charts of AMZN and noticed that the April 2007 earnings report had a similar reaction. There was a gap from 44.75 to open of 53.12 followed by a close of 56.81 a similar percentage rise like today. The stock never looked back and went up more than 10% to 62.78 the next day which was the high till opex, with the stock finding support at the 50% retracement of 59.70.
This was the time where the market had a similar look with breadth indicators going down while the major indices were topping. This started the period where the four horsemen ran up till the peak in late 2007.
Master Shake had alluded to something along the same lines about the market action being concentrated in a few leaders. Precious metals, commodities, energy and technology seem to be the winning sectors this time around so it is very likely we will see a focused effort by the mo-mo money to run up these sectors.
Ms. B: What do you read of the action in AMZN today. There was absolutely no hint of profit taking. The largest pull back was perhaps $1.50 near the previous all time highs. It seems all the hot money was jumping into this stock with no looking back. The overall market though is going through multiple distribution days.
I am certainly not a chartist, but AMZN & BIDU were strong on Friday, rising almost monotonically when the broader market was declining on a trend-down day.
I too made the mistake of shorting AZO (via bear call spreads) in the Spring of 2009 --- I saw AZO make an all-time high while $SPX made the March low :(
OTOH though this quarter was great AMZN is sitting on a potential bomb if the state sales tax initiative goes through. NY has forced Amazon to collect sales tax since it has affiliates based in New York. With local government finances in a very bad shape, it is just a question of when not if that some form of internet sales tax becomes reality. That is going to be a big blow to AMZN's electronic sales which I think made up 40% of their total revenues thanks to the big tickets they carry.
Ride the IV increase into earnings and get out before they report
Find the big movers and ride the momentum after they report, usually when they start they will just keep going for a few days
examples are usually the high beta stocks, BIDU, ISRG, AMZN, FSLR, MA etc...
If you do ride through earnings, do not use straight long OTM options ever or straddles/strangles, they rarely rarely work. And if you do, it has to be throwaway money, i normally run through the cost and look at my account - that and write it off straight away if i do take a position but it is gambling in it's purest form.
Ayway back to your AMZN, my personal take is it's probably going to top out with the looming market st top coming up....so i don't expect much more upside from here, maybe a bit more but those gaps below are going to get filled eventually, GOOG did the same when it had that $100 move on an earnings last year - it took 6 months but they got them filled...just keep an eye on them for when the market turns, they're normally good target zones when certain support levels give way
Good point, I have shorts on CVX and some other OIH companies
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
If the April 2007 pattern is any indication, we might run up another 10% to 130 before consolidating between 120-130. The 10% extension of the all time high to low is around 125. The 25% extension of the closing high is around 130.
On the downside there is the previous all time closing high around 107, the gap open at 110 and the previous intra-day high at 113-114 which should provide ample support.
I am rethinking my current position because I am not sure I can tolerate the draw-down which will occur as it runs up, before the theta of my short option positions kick in. My BE at November expiration is near 126 but the profits are going to kick in only in after two weeks.
The one big wild-card with Amazon is the sales tax/internet issue. It will be a huge multiple deflater when it hits.
5 day TRIN: 5-day (cyan) 10-day (red) we are close to a s/t bounce. Look when NYSE Trin hit 1.6 http://cdn.cloudfiles.mosso.com/c54092/app45331...
Our Timer charts: we are NOT there yet but er are very close--- note the closing MOs (-141 & -120) == s/t O/S: https://twitter.com/hamzeianalytics
Here is the chart http://tweetphoto.com/ngzzadh6 notice VXN got to -3 sig but I want to see VXO there 2 -- a good shake of weal longs is in order
Long NDAQ w/ 3% stop
NDAQ chart, It seems likely they are overdue to bounce 11% higher
BIIB target 38 http://screencast.com/t/9HXesBhoqjDR
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FXA&p=60&yr=0&...
X (weekly)
Very "popular" H/S that is buzzing all around the internets now. It looks like a classic set up but the downward sloping neckline worries me a bit.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=X&p=W&yr=1&mn=...
TEVA (weekly)
A nice consolidation pattern. A play on the upcoming health care scenario?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TEVA&p=W&yr=1&...
TIE (Daily)
My favorite stock to play both long and short. At a real nice support level. Leisa brought this up and I'm glad as sometimes I'm too focused on the day to day moves but take a long term view of this chart and see the nice basing pattern.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TIE&p=D&yr=0&m...
Have a great weekend folks.
X (long with tight stop) http://screencast.com/t/mZPvZqaX
TEVA - no juice, generics overrated
http://siliconinvestor.advfn.com/readmsg.aspx?m...
if anyone else has 12/4 showing up, please post it here and to my site (so i will be sure to see it). i have not seen it anywhere else.
of TA. I don't need an opinion. If it breaks and tests then I play it. If it
fails, I play it.
No need for me to try to pick it.
Tom DeMark
patterns at all. so, the whole % thingy is as slippery as an eel in olive
oil.
the one earlier this year, a continuation, would have gone into the trash
can of memory if it had not been so highly and widely touted by the bears
and doomers.
work to really care about it.
good luck!
http://tinyurl.com/29zesy (so you don't have to take my word for it ... here is a trustworthy reference)
I find it interesting that you cannot admit when you are wrong about that ... (e.g., be humble)
it is also interesting to me that you have time to post all afternoon when you stated that you did not have time for B's comment ...
not concerned about a perfect, recent major example which proves my point
and cost bears/shorts lots of money, especially in puts.
http://tinyurl.com/yl5gkz7
thoughts?
I saw your other question in this thread and will try to address later on, as I'm a little rushed right now and it was more involved. Thanks!
Any chance you are going to grace us all with some charts & analysis tonight? :) Very interested to get your take on things, particularly what look like bull flags on DJI/TRAN and early ascending triangles on COMPQ/RUT (from mid Aug timeframe)? thanks
“Failures in 1991 were a third of what they were in 2007. Trading chart patterns and making a profit has become substantially more difficult.”
Thomas N. Bulkowski, May 2009 Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodoties Magazine
“Since several people have tried to reproduce the statistics in my previous book,
Encylopedia of Chart Patterns, I thought it would be a good idea to detail exactly how I came up with the numbers for this book. Much of the methodology changed between books. Thus, statistical comparisons between the two books may not be valid. Below is the methodology masquerading as a glossary of terms.”
Thomas N. Bulkowski, Trading Classic Chart Patterns
There is no methodology in his glossary of terms. He actually used the word “masquerading”! I couldn’t make this stuff up folks. Its too rich, too deep (up around my knees).
Having a methodology is core to having a chance at surviving and succeeding in stock trading, imho.