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Will Santa Deliver?
As per the market, my eyes are on the USD$. Ben recently said it will be protected and I believe him, but at the same time this market will only go up if the USD$ continues to crash. The choice is simple if you want to avoid anarchy in this country. Sacrifice the dollar otherwise higher interest rates will bankrupt America at this point.
Hope you are up on your paws soon.
Great call and good of you to point it out as I still have some left.
looks excellent. I'll continue to hold at least half of my position unless
the market deteriorates significantly before the close. My FSLR and BIDU
longs are also working nicely now.
Institutional investors used the cover of better than expected earnings to distribute stocks to less savvy participants me thinks.
ISRG same...AAPL I suspect will do the same as well.
However, I can't ignore that the bulls took over 1080 on /ES. Might this mean a continued march up to 1120?
Maybe.
Do you still have the small short position you built up from last Friday?
Thanks.
The only way to harness this market's action imo is by nibble day trading. I had a terrific day today with just 2 stocks.
MS, HERO
MGM was abandoned early as it was too inactive and moved money out of there and into MS.
Unless the bulls give the 1080 area away again, I will likely be long in my day trades from this point forward.
I do find it a bit odd that the entire 20-point drop in /ES yesterday was retraced with good volume, given that the drop too was on very large volume in a very short period of time. Is Mrs. market telling us that she made a mistake yesterday?
A couple of days ago, Frank Barbera was calling for an extended trading range between SPX 1075 and 1125 from now until probably mid November [ http://www.financialsense.com/Market/daily/tues... ]. So far he's been right.
may abandon it.
My platform (Infinity AT) could not keep up with the price movement when I went short @ 1079.25. Huge gaps. Was sometimes hard to tell where the price currently was + my PnL column was consistently wrong. This continued for @ least 40 minutes.
I decided it was best to scalp. Am still doing that but expect further upside: some price targets - currently - are 1081.5 and 1085.
No longs with good enough odds for me @ the moment.
ESI down $7--( education ) its bad-debt expenses increased and the cost of its classes and administrative expenses grew.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ITT-Educational-3...
On a side note! This guy at yahoo can't spell--Yahoo is going to fire the Author
topping potential SPY 110.30 X 110.80
count this as my potential " top" call no. 1
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=60&st=20...
I am long a good bunch of FXP ($8.09) ... we'll see if I am correct about this one (I saw some funny movements in the overnight markets last night) ... I am also going to begin to focus on individual stock picks (and less on ETF's like I have been) ...
To keep things technical here's a chart ... http://tinyurl.com/yg8kr8o (until the $TRAN confirms with a higher high I see little reason to be too bullish) ... one scenario that could play out tomorrow is second day rise up on commodities ... the cyclicals and financials led today (commodities did not) ...
I will watch price action closely at these levels on the $SPX (1102, 1108, 1121) as the markets most likely grind up in front of the weekend ... I will be surprised if the $SPX gets above 1109 (and will probably get long if it does) ... and since AMZN blew out earnings (up 14% after the close) it is a bit peculiar that the ES is only up 1.40 now ...
If Disqus continues to have problems you will know why I am not here ... good luck to everyone tomorrow (especially with using Disqus)!
Keep and eye on the ol buck...thats whats wagging the dog.
See you all tomorrow
But I'm glad you're having fun ;-)
I realised - too late - how brusque my reply seemed. 'Twas not my intention.
I am running around like a mad thing getting everything organised so I can fly to see my not-very-well Mama.
I appreciate the point you made but cannot "check my charts" as I have none to check ;-)
Hope you're having a pleasant weekend.
Next one was 1091.5 with 97.5% odds and that too was broken though i see that the ES has fallen below it now.
I like volatility but when such high odds RLs are broken it's hazardous to continue trading if you're a daytrader.
and then 1088. As a consequence i avgd in short @ 1089 and 1091
The ES is far from my thoughts and will be for the next few weeks.
All the best with your trading, dear Pink.
http://www.screencast.com/users/springheel_jack...
It is the updated rally wedges & trendlines chart with the bear wedge upper channel drawn back to Nov '08 (Thank you Dutch), and the declining trendline from the Oct '07 peak to the May '08 top.
Interestingly the two key trendlines (black) will intersect at about 1110 in slightly over a week.
Another thing to note is that the bear wedge from July only, which broke downwards in late September, has retested the lower channel line (blue), now at 1100 and rising at about two points per day, and failed to break back in with any conviction. That strengthens the bearish case here, and suggests any significant rips here should be sold.
If we haven't already made at minimum a major interim top, we should not be more than a few days from doing so.
Took off my shorts in the am as we could not break the /ES 1072 level.... Had puts/calls on SPY, TZA, FAZ, RUT, BAC, SRS, FXP, MNX, ... sold them from the /ES 1072 level thru 1077 level...all in batches.....
All in all it was a great trade... I still feel we have much more room on the downside but I did not think we were going to roll over today as Banks are relatively strong..GS is a good indicator and has been green all day. Dont have the stomach to give back the 35% ROI in just 2 days.....
They came close to shaking me out yesterday, but I hung in there and left the house for a few meetings...came back home to a delicious surprise....
Not sure if this last reversal will give us the start to the next leg down.....but I decided today that although we may see SPX $1000 sometime in the next week or 2, it is very possible for us to just trade sideways for a while...and kill my option premium.
Will watch the KING DOLLAR.... for upcoming clues of what's to come.
Glad to hear all is well with ya! GL mi amigo
Special hello to Sir Taz, the charming Pink and the well-balanced Chuckles
Real humour, daring, and recipes as well ;-)
I will come here when i can.
How are you feeling?
If you are looking for a POSSIBLE trade the hourly on AUD/USD is forming a nice 3 day long H/S. Right shoulder 0.929 Head 0.933 Left shoulder (forming now) ~ 0.929.
Anyway going long s&p now on any and all pullbacks, a monster treasury auction is looming next week, i expect that to coincide witht he peak of this rally ( finally ) and will short around 1110 or thereabouts ( assuming its post-auction) and see how it goes..
Todays action is extremely similar to what happened a few months back, i recall a day doing exactly the same thing and the s&p prompty went onto new highs shortly after. Suspect the backtest of the channel broken yesterday is going to get hit tomorrow and then they'll chop their way through the previous resistance once more..
It's a shame the technicals work beautifully until the fed stick their stupid oar in..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PSZri7AUcGg
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/eric-e-burns/fox-...
With the White House taking shots at Fox "News" and Obama implying republicans don't think for themselves I can't help but smell the beginnings of a revolution. I've heard it before from Ron Paul and Tahir over at www.f8analysis.blogspot.com but haven't really believed it till this week.
Gold miners did not follow despite USD$ going down. DJI gain +130 1.3% @ 1081, S&P 1.06% @ 1092.87
The entire move yesterday is now gone.
TZA - Lost on my TZA trade - a small loss as I bailed out earlier than stop when I saw EUR/USD kept going higher.
AMZN - Put spread should be nice and green tomorrow with it up over $9. Instead of cashing-out on the spread tomorrow, I may roll the Nov 85 long Put to Dec and continue to hold the Nov 90 short for better profits.
However, all this was before AMZN went above 107 in AH, so I will re-evaluate tomorrow, but now more likely that I will just cash-in and move on...
Done for the day....good finish all...
Maybe the fear of being stuck in depreciating cash or depreciating fixed-income investments trumped the other kind. Or maybe this is just a short, oversold bounce. Couldn't say, really.
I saved the chart --I should post it--
Still holding that POS ULBI....from 4.32.....
AVII @ 1.74.....let's see if she will run....
here.
I did a study on the 13600 call options at 190, welcome to read....
http://snpmonster.blogspot.com/2009/10/gs-optio...
Long TSO. Nice pullback on recent breakout. Tight stop at 10c below LOD. Take a look at both weekly and daily charts. I may be mistaken but TSO has formed a nice cup and handle pattern, and an inverse H&S (not so good pattern).
BTW I am reading William O'Neill's "How to make...." book. Nice and easy vacation read. Brinkley, correct me if I am wrong, but I think this book has an incredible influence in your trading style (for your longer term, swing trades). At least during the past few months I am following your trades. Again, I may be wrong on my findings.
Treasury Sets Record $123 Billion Auction for Next Week .
http://www.cnbc.com/id/33432491
"Mastering the Trade" John Carter
"Candlestick and Pivot Point Triggers" John Person
Some mind training books on the way:
"The Power of Concentration" Theron Q Dumont
"Discipline : Training the mind to Manage Your Life" Harris Kern
"The Master Mind : The Key to Mental Power, Development and Effficiency" Theron Q Dumont
"Find Your Focus Zone: An Effective New Plan to Defeat Distraction and Overload" Lucy Jo Palladino
"Unleash the Warrior Within: Develope the Focus, Discipline, Confidence and Courage You Need to Achieve Unlimited Goals" Richard Machowicz
I study who does well, so:
"No Excuse Leadership: Lessons from the US Army's Elite Rangers" Brace E. Barber
"Leadership Lessons of the Navy SEALS: Battle Tested Strategies for Creating Successful Organizations and Inspiring Extraordinary Results" Jeff Cannon
For relaxation during/after the markets and for life:
Awaken Your Strongest Self: Break Free of Stress, Inner Conflict, and Self Sabotage" Neil Fiore
"The Fine Art of Relaxation, Concentration & Meditation, Revised: Ancient Skills for Modern Times" Joel Levey.
And one I most likely really need HA! :
"The Art and Science of Personal Magnetism : The Secret of Mental Fascination" Theron Q Dumont
Most are inexpensive. We'll see. Thanks urszula for showing me that people do read.
to the Daily Trading Coach. Thanks for the info!
Inverse H&S forming on ES today if 1075ish holds?
http://www.screencast.com/users/toad37/folders/...
I'm going to take a break and then work out what to do.
[Later] I like 1084.25 and.....maybe 1085.75
[Later still] Another possibility is 1084.25
BQI @ 1.56.....
My issue is everytime I've been ready to long it, it's gone lower. It needs to prove to me it can sustain an uptrend and this market have more emotion than robot high frequency fed induced POMO buying.
Watch PQ if oil starts a move....
been busy scalping ... shorted EBAY (24.20) and so far that looks like more than a day trade ...
Nat Gas in 15 minutes ... UNG has been a good short above $12 recently ...
watching 1070/1071 area on ES today ... good luck to everyone today ...
(I will not be around too much because some upgrades are being done to the home)
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=sny
short ES @ 1075.75
yay I got to post!
On the negative side, the company is loaded with debt, to the tune of $2 billion; investor David H. Murdock, who has controlled the company since 1985, took it private in 2003 and financed it primarily with loans. All the money being raised in the offering will be used to pay down debt; that, in combination with several other transactions, will trim the debt load to $1.6 billion after the IPO.
yeah, the debt thing kinda turned me off too.
Welcome back moo-- you have been missed!
YRCW @ 3.27.....
too busy this am to state trade alerts, but so far doing well w/ +2.50 and +3.50 on trades respectively.
1068 is about 12 pt range from 1080, so that would coincide with the gap fill and vol virgin poc
Then Yesterday...Cut&P....
Multiple Insiders of Encorium Group, Inc.(NasdaqCM: ENCO | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) bought 3,937,500 shares of ENCO from the open market on 2009-10-20. The stock was up 5.46% after the InsiderCow.com report.
Trade amount: 3,937,500 Shares
Trade type: Open Market Buy
Price Range: $0.40
Yes, I'm on twitter...or at least that's where I tend to make comments.
Mostly on the ES.
Things are good. I'm sim trading the ES, which is getting better. I've been
good on direction but still need work on trade entry.
I tend to read the blogs mostly by my disqus subscriptions, which cuts out
the chit chat.
I hope you feel better soon. Maybe you can still get some good rides in
before it gets too cold. I'm a long retired racer, but I've been training
fairly hard recently.
Cheers,
S
sold AAPL Nov 200 puts @ 3.80 << day trade only
Left YRCW @ 3.34.....3.27 entry...scalp....
AKNS....left @ 1.14...enetred @ 1.11......yesterday....stuck....
Measured move back to 1082 support.
Lack of trend after 1.5hrs in the market.
Nasty golf ball sized knot under my left shoulder blade running pain up into my neck which I can barely turn.
Be back later guys and gals. GOOD LUCK!
TZA - Bought small position @ $11.87. Will buy more @ 11.7. Stop loss 2%. Hope to ride to 5% profit. Will likely bail-out if FXE > 1.5 too.
The older posts on the lower RH side.
The ebook "The Power of Concentration"
Best Regards and Happy Trading
Just saw a Head and shoulders formation on the $DXY 5 minute....neckline around $75.20..... a break below that would give us a potential target of $74.95...would shoot up equities and commodoties....
Got to run :)
How about a Put Spread Nov 90/85 for credit of $1.7 or so?
Loved "Band on the Run" album....
For me, Band on the Run = 3 songs in one
tried my hand @ $SPY strangle selling 116 nov calls/ 103 nov puts @ 1.04 credit, 11% chance of reaching 116 by Nov 2 and 16% chance of reaching 103 by Nov 2.
Added: If we get another big sell off at the end of the day I'm going to be PO'd.
Left ARNA @ 4.30 ....even....small position.....
Problem is, I have no GLD and am loaded with miners.
Though HGSI's complete about face in half a day was somewhat surprising. Pleasantly so.
Added: ...8.49, not 9.49... ;^)
Run over by SRS.....small loss....
added: watching like a hawk this last half hour...
out RNN @71 +.03 small profit
thought it would hit my target of .75
I'm sticking to my trend and volume rule. No early trend, no trade. It's frustratingly pointless to keep scalping thin air getting chopped or wiggled out of trades that go no where until finally some volume and buying comes in well after I've given it several attempts on better price structure opportunities.
We got the move with less than 2hrs left in the market today. I can't time it and I'm not going to try. The only thing working is leveraging in long on every dip. I've never been a position trader and I hate sitting through losses waiting for the trade to finally work.
Thanks for your option info.... have a great night
Thanks to everyone here for another great day. It's a Wonderful Life.
# of weeks
% gain or loss
I took 100k: lost 30k, made 23k, then I started fooling around and throwing darts. I basically took a 100k account and churned 100k of it up and down in 6 months, ie. my total profit and loss was 100k of profit and 107k of loss. Kinda feels like internet casino!
RUSSIAN BONDS SOFT; HAIR TRIGGER SITUATION. HEAVY ISSUANCE COMING. DEALERS ARE POISED TO DUMP. INDIA ACKNOWLEDGING INFLATION…
Update: I just received that dealers full note:
THERE SEEMS TO BE A TOUCH OF NERVOUSNESS, ESPECIALLY IN EMERGING MARKETS. CHINA WAS URGED TO RAISE RATES IMMEDIATELY BY ONE OF THE HEADS IF ITS SMALLER (6TH LARGEST) BANKS. RUSSIAN BOND MARKET IS ON THE VERGE, WITH DEALERS POISED TO DUMP BONDS IF NO BUYERS SHOW UP. INDIA ACKNOWLEDGE THAT IT HAS TO LIVE WITH HIGHER INFLATION. GOVERNMENT BOND DEALERS ARE STILL WEEPING ABOUT HAVING TO BUY UPCOMING SUPPLY WITH OUT THE FED TAKING THEM OUT OF AUCTION POSITIONS. REUTERS FLOATED ONE OF THEIR PERIODIC WARNINGS ABOUT THE U.S. LOSING ITS “AAA.” PIMCO HAD A BLURB WARNING ABOUT A “DISORDERLY DECLINE” IN THE DOLLAR AND TECHNICIANS ARE WARNING ABOUT “KEY REVERSALS” IN U.S. STOCKS (LOTS OF WARNINGS!) BUT…THE ECB SAID THERE WAS NO INFLATION IN THE SYSTEM, FRENCH CONFIDENCE ROSE AND THERE IS TALK OF ASSET ALLOCATION OUT OF STOCKS INTO BONDS. WE ARE IN AND OUT OF THE FLATTENER GIVEN FRONT END SUPPLY AND WILL LOOK TO TWO STEP THAT INTO STEEPENERS AND OUTRIGHT SHORTS INTO THE NOVEMBER AUCTIONS OF 3′S, 10′S AND BONDS..
" INDIA ACKNOWLEDGE THAT IT HAS TO LIVE WITH HIGHER INFLATION."
"REUTERS FLOATED ONE OF THEIR PERIODIC WARNINGS ABOUT THE U.S. LOSING ITS “AAA.”
"PIMCO HAD A BLURB WARNING ABOUT A “DISORDERLY DECLINE” IN THE DOLLAR"
All the above means to me that gold is going much higher. If rates were to rise you will quickly see social unrest rise to a level of anarchy and I truly believe that before any hint of that becomes "common" this gov't will throw the USD$ under the bus, as you say. I think the "steepeners" and "flattners" would mean the FED will be using its power to manipulate the short term yield curve. Money will simply pour into the most undervalued asset:GOLD. The timing of all this? Who knows when and how...but these dancers will take their steps according to their own rhyme and reason.
Your best friend.....Taz
BTW - this was a zstock7 trade I took, sold profit, rebought same setup yesterday. I'll send my thanks in the morning, hopefully, Z!
http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/bespoke/2009/1...
Home sales are the only item on economic calendar today, but first we will get a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on the supervisory landscape at 8:30 a.m. ET. While nothing market-moving is anticipated, there is always a risk of price swings during his talk.
At 10 a.m. ET, Existing Home Sales will be released. Expectations are for the unit number to rise from the last report, with a forecast of 5.35 million units. The range is from 5.21 million to 5.5 million.