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;-)
At least I understand the problem...
I went back through today's trades and have pulled up and illustrated my GMCR long scalp as an example of a successful "quick" trade with my stop placement and rationale behind it. On this one, I knew from initiation that it was going to be strictly a scalp-- meaning I knew I didn't want to hold it overnight, and I didn't trust the market enough here to give it a chance to get moody and change its mind. Stops were placed at short-term support levels, as shown. As you can also see, I opted to sell into the volatility as the stock made a nice move, rather than give it much time and room to back up and consolidate (or potentially reverse). Still, the stop would have kept the trade above break-even and out of trouble if I needed to be dealing with other trades at the time. This one worked well, with a quick gain of $1.80.
http://screencast.com/t/cyyWH8hCE13
I'll illustrate another example tomorrow. Let me know if this is helpful-- or how it could be more so.
It's a thing of beauty when you get it right just after the open. You got 80% of the days move before the hour was up.
TNA 47.16 support.
IWM 61.36
With the morning weakness in stocks, we have moved back into a multiday trading range. We continue to see a somewhat elevated number of 20-day new lows among stocks: over 400 so far today across the NYSE, NASDAQ, and ASE. Note how small cap stocks (IWM; above) have struggled at resistance around 62.50. I continue to view the recent action as part of a topping process that will ultimately lead to a break below the lows of the past several days. Especially on my radar: commodity related energy and raw materials shares, which have been market leaders. Should we get a pullback in commodity markets, perhaps as a result of a dollar bounce, we could see that weigh on stocks as a whole.
Dr Brett
5 mins ago.
chart http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_7VHLCUlm_9o/St34wqMhp...
1082 area did not have as much volume traded there as 84/85 and 80/81 area, so that is likely the reason why buyers were willing to step in there. 1075 is another highly traded area, whereas 1073 is not highly traded....
http://slopeofhope.typepad.com/Current-Shorts.txt (the price listed is his stop)
if you are not familiar with Tim ... he holds more individual positions than anyone I am aware of ... I personally hold no more than 8 or 9 positions at a time as I prefer focusing my trades on short term moves ...
http://screencast.com/t/9ZTM8bus
Asia is looking resilient this am. As discussed the 3060 level in Shanghai is key. Right now, we are well above it and have even been green. The USD/JPY had a nice performance yesterday. It held the 21ema on the daily and bounced nicely off of it. We broke higher out of a bull flag last night and look to be retesting it this am.
http://tinyurl.com/yjltpyo
Best fun was 6 futures scalp trades, 4 winners + 2 tiny losses.
Just one of those things.
This has never happened before. All the other windows I had open were unaffected.
I don't usually trade the close, as I always lose money. I won't be trading it again!
Sorry that happened to you. The couple of times I had similar experiences I had my heart in my throat until I was able to get re-connected, hence the reason I decided to always use stops.
Slippage is one problem; you most need a stop on the ES when it's in feral mode but that's also when you're most likely to get slippage.
When papertrading the ES I noticed that there were so many times when, had I used a stop, it would not have been to my advantage, due to the way the ES moves - and the pace @ which it moves, that I decided not to employ them. It's certainly true that there are times when a stop would've saved me from an additional 2-tick loss (and sometimes much more, of course) but not often enough for me to use a stop loss routinely.
Trading without stops requires unceasing discipline; I do my best to exercise it ;-)
The ES is a special animal. Were I trading something else I might well use stops.
I've had my current platform for 8 months and have not lost the connection before. Were it to happen again I'd have to look at using stops, for sure.
When i papertraded for 5 months I ran numerous experiments. I still experiment now and then, switching to sim-trading to test something.
I'm a daytrader; if I have an open position my eyes don't leave the screen. If I were a swing-trader I would definitely use stops as I can't govern a trade when I'm asleep ;-)
*I've explained my stance really because I have a few followers who are new to trading and feel the need to be explicit and clear.
of course
went long ES @ 1085.25 b/c I like the 1083 S1 for today (also weekly pivot), gap fill @ 1082 and 13pt intraday range already
reclaimed daily VWAP at 7.32
YRCW hammered, but has reclaimed (declining) daily at 3.53.
Think it's interesting over 3.6
exited 2/3 @ 1087.25, +2, using rest as runner to VWAP
How do you usually manage your stops (i.e. how do you decide where to place them on these short/day/swing trades)?
Thanks!
Thanks again!!
I think the better question would be is how you decide when you have a loser and when to take your losses? I think I've seen you write about losses once when a trade quickly went against you and the market also started to work against you.
Edit.....THERE SHE BLOWS.....
Call me later...1-888-TAZMANN
EDIT...still have AXL...dropped FAST....
Correction: http://tinyurl.com/create.php
I expect 4 of A of P2 (http://tinyurl.com/yg4u6cj )to begin in DEC
A=C of today's ABC bounced right where it should've.
Lettuce see if it holds!!
http://finance.aol.com/quotes/ecu-silver-mining...
EDIT...I don't have 900K......trading volume today.....I wish....
TNA fib support at 46.25 would come into play.
XLF hasn't even come close to 15.09 yet, financials have flat lined since that Friday gap. Pretty wild last week. 3 days, 3 gaps, only one has filled on XLF.
I've left my order there.
Really don't think we've seen the LOD yet + lower than 1080 seems v possible to me.
And just ferr fun: http://tinyurl.com/ygrtxuh
Note the unauctioned 1076 area - likely a magnet at some point
Here's her disqus link:
http://disqus.com/Fujisan/
Lots of us have marked the 1070 to 1071 area ... Kemal also noted this area
I am 100% short the market (expecting a two day tumble). For anyone interested, BAC looks like a good short here. Transports and Small Cap's have not confirmed with higher highs, and that was a primary indicator for me. We'll see if the indexes break below some of their channels today (60 minute charts). I am NOT shorting commodities, as bonds are still having some trouble (however the TLT did gap up today).
I am generally leaving the tech side of the market alone for now (due to several earnings events) ... but I could be wrong about that one as it is showing weakness to $SPX because of the large moves in commodities ...
fwiw ... today's PPI showed less inflation and this may pressure oil into a weaker move here ... but I waiting till EIA news comes out this week before I trade oil ...
BAC is my largest position as it looks the best.... great Bear Flag formation on 10 minute chart over last 4 days.... The DXY looks like it has made a bull flag formation on the 5 minute chart and now starting to make a move out ot the top side. I posted the EUR/USD chart and /ES chart..both gave me the confirmation I needed to try the Short/Dark side this time around. I got my "you know what" handed to me the last time I tried this stunt.
http://tinyurl.com/yhh2fdn EUR/USD Daily this is from last night...but you get where it is now
http://tinyurl.com/yztj9ok /ES Hourly this is from this am, but we are now convincingly below channel.
GL to you my furry friend.
note that the SEC is going after "dark pools" tomorrow ... they are lowering the disclosure ceiling from 5% down to 0.25% per stock ... this will make dark pools less reliable for hiding trades ...
Going to repost the DAILY EUR/USD chart I posted last night as well as an Hourly for the /ES....
We are at the top of the channel on the EUR/USD...6+ month channel and at the low of the /ES channel. We are either going to break to the upside on the EUR and the /ES will make a move higher or what I think is the more probably play is we make a move lower on the EUR/USD which is what we are seeing take place today and we breach the channel on the /ES to the downside....
http://tinyurl.com/yztj9ok /ES Hourly Channel
http://tinyurl.com/yhh2fdn EUR/USD Daily Channel..
Very tempted to buy some index puts at these levels but waiting just a little longer....may start accumulating today...
May go in again
entered some AAPL 195 Nov puts @ 4.20 - day trade only, haven't done options in a while
ES short @ 1091 vwap
AAPL puts looking good though
+1 DTO * 5000
TZA and VXX +500
I haven't had a swing loss in a week in the sim. +10k in 3 weeks (real account can't afford some of these trades, lots of size and risk for only a managed point)
Steel Dynamics cautions fourth quarter earnings could be lower due in part to the change of season and a slight slowing in market momentum.
The chart has a wedging look and after the close to a 20% run it might be ripe for a pull back.
It has broken down the wedge it had formed from last Tuesday and now below the trend line from Oct 2. I think 125-126 area would be a good area for support. Major Fib retracement at 125 and change and close to the break out point. 127.18 is also a Fib Extension support apart from the previous swing low.
Were you the guy who recommended a China based steel company that Buffett likes to me? I think this was a while back and came up during a discussion on X. If you were, can you pass the ticker along?
Still holding DRV @ 18.95....Have RNN @ .74....added 1/3 more @ .69....(knife)....let's see....
Watching BSX....killed on not bad earnings
Good morning gang ;-)
A few quick trades. Much better start than yesterday.
Keep thinking of moo.
Cool trading, everyone
and Sir Tazman
http://finviz.com/publish/102009/TASRc1dl1102.png
Tazman - Are you saying possibly buy here with stop 4.38 and target of 4.93?
EDIT went TUNE 1800 shares @ 1.92.....time will tell.....
I went short @ 1098.75
and got out in 40 seconds. Boo hoo!
This company makes boards for set top boxes CATV....DTV...Verizon..... out of Plano Texas.....
Joao just sent me this: vid of a v v drunk man buying beer
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,1,26...
(The link worked on The Slope so hope it works here)
GLD @ 103.78
Stop @ 98
EDIT: taken out +.02 on the trailing stop
and it went to .69 and now its at .70. How come?
My avatar from a year ago just showed up. Weird.
HRAY buy the dips....
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BRF&p=D&yr=0&m...
I don't know what all this fuss about the 2% trading tax in Brazil. They had a 1.5% tax earlier last year and lots of foreign money flowed into Brazil then. I expect Brazil to continue to do well as us$ resumes its decline
Also, what is 'MS' - you mean Morgan Stanley?
for his own portfolio.
Brinkley literally taught the course on gap theory, but it sounds like she's fully engaged at the moment.
Sean
BEST @ 1.64...small position....
something below 1080, as a possibility.
1078.5 looks appealing
Brinker (EAT:$14.74,00$-1.77,00-10.72%) also expects franchisees to open fewer stores in its current fiscal year, as credit remains tight and fewer suitable sites are available.
Before Chili's (EAT:$14.74,00$-1.77,00-10.72%) new menu takes hold, Brinker (EAT:$14.74,00$-1.77,00-10.72%) will keep pressing promotions to bring in guests, a strategy that will hurt margins. Shares fell $1.60, or 9.7%, to $14.91, even as Brinker's (EAT:$14.74,00$-1.77,00-10.72%) first-quarter earnings and sales topped estimates. Investors were also turned off as Brinker (EAT:$14.74,00$-1.77,00-10.72%) did not update its full-year earnings guidance, analysts said.
Stifel Nicolaus & Co. analyst Steve West said Brinker's (EAT:$14.74,00$-1.77,00-10.72%) earnings were helped by lower interest expense and taxes, a low-quality upside. Analysts expected restaurants to see benefits from lower food costs, but Brinker's (EAT:$14.74,00$-1.77,00-10.72%) saw unfavorable prices, partly as it was locked into a long-term chicken contract.
"Less bad is no longer relatively good anymore. The Street's tired of it," West said.
http://zstock7.com/?p=1790#comment-20522448
http://screencast.com/t/tgpX3lgA
the 15 min. is trying to rally it..
http://screencast.com/t/Ly68kyOqXuxS
I signed up for your website last night, had my credit card charged, and I still haven't heard back from you with respect a username and password required to access your paid website.
Can you send me your order number?
You can use this link.
http://zstock7.com/?page_id=36
You already sent me the log in info.
My real name is Gabriel H.
I'm outta here.
(Best seen on a 20-day chart...)
Take a sim account with 1mil buying power, average in going short the last two weeks, scalp 5,000 to 10,000 shares with no more than two $200 losses in 31 trades and bingo = $14,775. Three weeks of really average trading but no losses.
Well I will know what to do with my inheritance one day I guess. Just build huge positions averaging in and put in a 1pt. profit stop loss.
Thanks
c
Maybe I'll just keep my trades to myself. Real or Sim.
And that TZA stop has yet to hit by .01.
I get scoffed at for posting up virtual trades and my real trades normally don't last long enough for me to even take the time to post. I just feel like a lot of my trading idea post are pointless. Kinda suits the market in my opinion on most days. Just pointless grind.
Digging out of a year long hole, then digging out of a hole after your first trade of the day is depressing to say the least.
If I had more cushion, more profits on the year, I'd give most of my trades more leeway. Couple months back I got stopped out of two real account 5,000 share TZA and FAZ trades to the f@#$&ing penny by the MM's. Two trades, back to back, to the penny loss which was the last low into the close. My bad was marketing in and allowing that entry price to dictate the stop. I was hoping for a break out and caught more coiling action and price probing.
Trading defensively sucks, but I have to do what works, if only incrementally sometimes. That's why I love the paper trading. It's real time, it mirrors my account, and it'd be exactly what I would do if not for fear of losing big money trying out my ideas.
Looking for TNA to craddle on the 25 tick chart here at 47.10ish or slightly lower
RNN @ .68
http://tinyurl.com/yh5ktuz
Going to watch OIH closely tomorrow with the inventory report also.
The gap ups & downs are nasty.
Q2 earnings were saturated with concern about top-line revenues while dismissing cost cutting labor expenses.
Q3 Revenue per Employee surpassed Q2, so I'm expecting a pretty good Q3 earnings season.
THU Initial Claims oughtta drop.
FRI ExHomes ought to be good.
MON SEP Durable Goods Orders oughtta be good/less bad.
TUE OCT Consumer Confidence is a crap shoot, and heavily weighted towards employment which dipped in SEP.
WED Q3 GDP Advance oughtta be pretty decent.
The biggie will be three FRI's away: OCT NFP, which should be a great improvement over SEP NFP.
For all the bear talk about the neighborhood since JUL... things are looking good for the market's earnings, even though the economy is having severe employment and consumer credit losses.
JAN & FEB will be bad.
All I trade are ETF's and trying to get a winner to run during the day and time the entry just right when the downside moves are .10 spreads on top of .10 spreads and my trades are normally 100% of my cash position per 1000 share trade. It's always gut check time. I've watched FAS drop a point a minute on a few days during early morning weakness in financials, even though the trend was/is up and all that. Just brutal to trade successfully and consistently. Not to mention the always present fear of being torched for that quick point in the wrong direction and it takes at least 10 trades to finally get a runner.
The only gap I can see (using prophet.net daily chart) is from 1099.03 to 1097.56 from Oct 3/08 to Oct 6/08, which would mean that we have closed the gap as of yesterday's high.
I really appreciate the fact that you took the time to look for it.
Take care!
CEL @ 31.07 IRA
http://www.bullionvault.com/
(I heard good things via Itulip.com too)
; )
I said I'd discuss stops, and I'll try to do that in an hour or two. Be forewarned, however-- there really is not a satisfying "solution" that works for everyone.
if I see this situation change (which can happen when Asia opens and trades for a while) I will post again ...
Now much new, just few updates