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I shorted the R2K yesterday for the first time in a while near the close. Small profit at the moment, but I'm going to push it into next week.
Have a great weekend, folks.
Nice trading ;-)
I did mean intraday.
Tice on Bloomy now.
Brinkley, you will soon get an email.
http://screencast.com/t/DzeSdLgd8KC
http://screencast.com/t/DmAcStzTG
http://screencast.com/t/cYzShTqw2
SRS
http://screencast.com/t/xuTfvqJfx8
http://screencast.com/t/TK986S7fJJ
If IYR breaks this pattern “OH YEA”..I started buying the SRS today…It’s premature until we get the confirmation but the INSIDE DAY and gap down with the MACD acting bearish with IYR made me start…I need the break of these EMA’s as well as a crossover and bear realignment and a column of “O”s before I add significantly. A turn up on the 5 EMA as well as a bull alignment on the 15 min. will have me cover.
:)
http://screencast.com/t/ky1B5rmGTwDk
http://screencast.com/t/IXi3ykPj
I like looking at the yield charts better as it gives me a better prospective on what the price levels mean....have a nice weekend...
Left JAZZ @ 8.64...even....
Left HEB @ 1.81....even
Holding DPTR.....
Done for the day....good trading all....
Moo...Ms B...another good week @ The Shady Rest.....(Petticoat Junction)
I slept in this morning expecting the normally flat OpEx Friday (needless to say I am a bit surprised) ... since many here concurrently follow the Slope of Hope (aka SOH) blog I thought that I would post yesterday's video by Tim Haefke ... Tim Knight at SOH showed an old video from him this morning ...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gWyonzpA-HU (it contradicts Tim Knight's sentiments just a bit)
You will want to visit the Slope to watch the original video first ... which explains the technicals of the $SPX gap fill ... overall this seems like a big deal technically (and something that I had NOT seen mentioned anywhere) so I thought that I would be bold and post the SOH reference here ...
Good trading to everyone ...
Some fish and some v cute bears do like to sleep in
Hahahaha
More generally this blog is held in high regard at SOH. I'm not sure I can recall seeing a negative comment about it, although there were a few jokes about you opening a bar on Fridays.
Besides, the more Happy Hours, the better, right?
btw ... sometimes I get the same feeling with Tim but for the most part I just think that the darker side of his personality is overly busy, a bit compulsive and slightly neurotic. He loves to trade though and that is why I keep up with his blog.
*edit* Heavy volume in first 30 minutes. Up 11% yesterday. Short interest is 16%. Pretty volitile so far, but gains holding so far and once settled a bit may make another strong run up, IMO. Company will be announcing some Phase 3 data next week.
Futia called for an "imminent" retrace correctly yesterday. Partially because of his call, and that the Dow futures were positive after IBM's AH sell-off, I was leaning very short last night on /ES. His tweet was:
"$ES_F The ES will hold above 1083 for the rest of the day and rally into the 1090-95 range by the close. A 20 point break is imminent.
9:59 AM Oct 15th from StockTwits "
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Monday_%2819...
uuuhhhh, the link doesn't work.
Google: 1987 Stock Market Crash and click on the wikipedia entry.
Okay, Google 1987 Stock Market Crash, folks
and click on the wikipedia entry.
Sorry, it was actually two years ago...
On November 7, 2007, the NYSE confirmed that the exchange has scrapped this rule as of November 2[1]. The reason given for the rule's elimination was its ineffectiveness in curbing market volatility.
http://www.nyse.com/press/circuit_breakers.html
http://www.securitiesindustry.com/news/-23998-1...
I like ITB quite a bit after it recently failed a developing Inverse H&S pattern ... http://tinyurl.com/nrjfob ... not a huge mover but generally steady ...
I am also currently screening several retail stocks ... (but have not finished that work yet) ... the RTH looks sickenly over inflated but it has been the bear's nemesis in this counter trend ... http://tinyurl.com/ykpgq2e
btw ... I would note that earnings really kick into high gear next week ...
You can try XRT if you do not like RTH and want to short retail ... especially when consumer service areas are selling ...
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hl?s=XRT
http://screencast.com/t/6NDNkBCCeb
I should mention that a high percentage of the time on opex days, we end up not far from where we started. That plus market internals make this intraday rally's odds a little shaky. On the other hand, many stocks have staged impressive recoveries off the lows. Not placing any big bets here on an opex Friday.
Those who bough Nov calls for SPY did not make that much...just enough to cover their commissions per contract.
Btw, I have a stop for my VST /ES long at below the LOD.
http://retracementlevels.blogspot.com/2009/10/c...
I did catch a ride up on CME upgrade new for a nice clip as well.
Note to self: Don't trade on OPEX, not worth the risk/return odds
http://www.gamingthemarket.com/wp-content/galle...
Still holding my DTO until that criteria is met (which is just a sim trade so I don't care if it gets blown out, but I have to stick to my plan when I make one and not get wiggled around indecisively)
Since you manage so many positions I'm curious how much capital you're risking and monitoring on average.
As for my specific account information, I'm not at really at liberty to disclose that in a public forum, and frankly don't know why anyone would consider doing so. And besides, it should be irrelevant-- the only really pertinent information from my above comment is that I I considered the risk/reward to be favorable, at least short-term, and defined my risk parameters via my stop placement. The rest is all relative.
I've followed some of your trades and I have no idea what your buy size position or price is. I'm only curious about your risk appetite in this market and how you are able to managed 10 longs during downside moves, weakness, and gaps. If you're in 1000 OIH at 125 vs 50 OIH at 125 it tells me a lot about your style of trading. To be honest, I haven't been able to learn much from your style, because I have no idea about your execution.
I'm not trying to criticize or slam you in any way. All I am saying is I have a hard time learning from what you actually do. It's important to me, because your overall calls have been splendid. We know that you're long and what sectors, etc. You've been spot on. I'd like to learn about the risk management, entry timing, downside risk aspect. Do you use the 2% rule for loss, that type of thing.
http://screencast.com/t/67vd6RsJjy
10/16/2009 08:49:11 REORG - CASH AND STOCK MERGER $33/SHR & .985:1 EXCHANGE TO PFIZER INC CUSIP 7170 (PFE)
Bullish IHS on Dow and S & P.
Transports, Nasdaq and mini Russell have double tops.
The buck will be the one I watch closely today.
VISN still going strong...sold it at 7.19 and it's over 10.
Good video post here yesterday on the critters.
They know how to have fun ;-)
http://tinyurl.com/ykgahk4
http://tinyurl.com/ygbrnse
http://tinyurl.com/yhnnhx7
http://tinyurl.com/yzl688q (fwiw ... when I look at this chart ... March 2009 is much different than March 2008)
I would note that over at stockcharts the commentary generally suggests a continuing up move (following the trend) with eyes on the next $SPX retracement of 1121 ... John Murphy nailed the USO break out two days before it happened (which I personally did not consider to trade). Arthur Hill has noted that there are very few bearish confirmations here ... the only breadth indicators that are bearish at this time are the McClellan Oscillators ...
However ... I am lightly short the market (and no longs) with less than 10% of my account in some put positions ... positions like BAC continue to look like good shorts to me ... have a good weekend!
Some TA analysis showing IT top may be in place already.
http://elescolazo.blogspot.com/2009/10/review-i...
http://elescolazo.blogspot.com/2009/10/review-i...
http://forums.technicalwatch.com/post?id=3728465
INDU with TRAN daily charts -
http://forums.technicalwatch.com/post?id=3720865
fyi - IYR weekly chart is giving mixed signals and it is too early/iffy to make an IYR or SRS new trade, in my opinion
- hiker
Added: Glad I didn't trade the close, I would have been on the wrong side.
Thoughts on IWM? Clear double top on 14th and 15th(downside objective seems to have been met). Now seems to be forming the RS of an H&S pattern formed last week. Did not confirm the new high in other indices. Doji on the weeklies.
Small caps are also not going to be benefiting from the dollar fall and have a lot of small financial companies in the mix which are likely to be under some pressure.
SPY ~ 60 Strange behavior, "trapped between" channels somewhat
http://www.screencast.com/users/katzo7/folders/...
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091016/ap_on_bi_ge...
"Along with the enforcement division's deputy director, Storch also will supervise the SEC's Office of Market Intelligence, with an eye to improving the monitoring, collection and analysis of the hundreds of thousands of tips and complaints the agency receives annually."
Of course! That way they'll have first dibs on front running the good stuff!
What instrument are using to go short? I am thinking IWM.
Also does anyone here trade with ratio spreads? Go long 1x calls ATM, short 2x calls at ATM+7%. Close the position as it approaches ATM+5%.
You can do reverse with puts but there the vega works against your favor. i.e. if stocks fall the volatility goes up and since you are short vega, you get hurt more.
I am thinking of putting a call ratio spread on sometime in the middle of next week after the post-opex excess is taken out.
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/annotated-...
BOT 15.72....Sold 16.19
BOT 16.00...still in
nice earnings
When I first saw those red candles at 1:30, I thought you were short!
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=qdel
http://gustoonstocks.com/forum/viewforum.php?f=3
Calling it quits. Good luck to everyone.
I'm prepared for both directions
Well you have to be ;-)
When I get on the "Vino".....somebody....stop me!
JAZZ....slow climb.....
Small position....2K shares....
Lott stuff can bite quick.....
I did have the balls to short last night up to /ES 1095. That was insane.
[Later] I think it's going to get there
I think many think that /ES 1075 will be the LOD.
A rapid scalp because the odds are quite low; odds far better for the long.
I think that's fairly likely to be the LOD
but the ES is feral so you never know
just FYI
I might try a short from 1082 as well. A rapid scalp. Not sure yet. Might be better to wait - hope! - for 1083
http://screencast.com/t/Ayu4cmcm
And the ever helpful finviz: http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=211&f=ind_was...
In other areas, we're obviously seeing signs of some breakdown as we near the oft-emphasized ceiling of resistance just overhead. We're due a real correction and there have been many clues that one is waiting in the wings; but as stated before, at this point it appears that it will present another buying opportunity. Lots of things moving today and I need to turn my attention to the market. Will comment again in a bit.
Could you plz provide me with your email address? I searched SOH for it as I am a moderator over there and was somewhat shocked (LOL) that you have not posted recently over there. It is your civil duty . . . . I would like to send you an apology for my recent behavior in response to your response to me over there. Flowers? Candy? Chocolates? A well chosen poem from me? Plz pick your poison !
A wrap up from GustoonStocks.....
Board,
This is what I posted at the site under "daily observations". Feels like little profit taking today as we usually follow Europe and Europe is a bit weak. They didn't like that BAC earnings report. However, I did notice an upgrade on C so we shall see.
October 16, 2009
The world markets are mixed. The Nikkei was up 18 bips. The Hang Seng was down 31 bips. Australia was down 41 bips. Shanghai was down 11 bips. India was up 74 bips. Europe is trading down. The Dax is down 30 bips, the Cac is down 52 bips and the Ftse is down 28 bips @ 8am est and have been weakening throughout the morning. The S&P 500 futures are down nearly 6 points. GOOG and IBM came in fine with their earnings. BAC and GE were light on revenues. The dollar is trading up versus the Yen. Oil and Gold are trading down.
1. Good earnings/guidance? GOOG, AOS, CBST, CYT, TPX, VMI and UFPI.
2. Good upgrades? Needham likes TRGT, Benchmark likes GOOG, Jesup likes SWIR, Deutsche likes LYG, BB&T likes KR & SWY and Maxim initiates CHBT with a buy.
3. Good gappers? TRGT, SPPI, FLIR, AIRT, NVAX, GOOG, SLT and AKAM.
4. Bad gappers? ELY, SFSF, CRYP (guidance), AMD, IBM, SNY, BAC, ING, DB, C, BCS, UBS, WFC and SI.
5. Cramer? Likes homeland security play FLIR. Also had the XLNX Ceo on who said things were great. Cramer reiterated. He also reiterated GOOG going to $600/share. Of course, he was wrong about the Dow going to 9000 first before 10,000. You can’t be right about everything.
6. Soros speaks and says the U.S. will be a drag on world economic growth. China may be in an asset bubble related to real estate.
7. Kaufman likes FSLR and raises eps estimates.
8. IPO CRIC (China Real Estate Info) price 18 million shares @ $12/share.
9. Secondary – CSIQ prices 6 million shares @ $15.75/share.
10. HGSI to host 11/2 conference call to discuss top-line results of Belimumab, a drug for lupus.
Gusto
Citigroup price target raised to $6 from $3 at Barclays
Shares are Overweight rated.
http://www.screencast.com/users/katzo7/folders/...
Didn't see it on your list.
Have a nice weekend
Chuck and I just talked about buying the basket play....did not go....
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idCN...
Those markets specialize in it, investment banks have to give up some of their risk.
low volume pullbacks.
(sold but watching closely)
After a period....will these go out of style?
Royale Energy Inc. Discovers New Natural Gas Field
On my list....no position.
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/oil-prices-...
Sep, 8 out of 9 days of buying on the rally.
Oct, 8 out of 9 days of buying...
I recall you bought AT&T a few days back. Do you still hold it?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=T&p=D&yr=0&mn=...
Would welcome opinions from anyone else too. Looking more as a safe high-dividend play rather than appreciation, though a bounce from just below the 50 dMA here would also be nice.
Also PBT and HGT are nice....I have both in long IRA......from the 10 and 14 level......
Amazing how many stocks given up so much weight and still have a long ways to recover.
and then you have stuff like CAR and DTG and I just don't frigging get that other than players at the world's largest casino taking a bet with $0 as the downside $.50 away.
Back in Feb. March things were looking pretty bleak. I had no compunction to go long at the time (other than a day trade). Sometimes we read so much crap it causes us to have too much bias. I've since lightened up on my bias nightly readings.
Thanks for the thoughtful reply.
http://disqus.com/moo/
Out of my strangle for a $400 profit. Should have bought at the open when there was no drop from yesterday's AH close. But the overall market weakness suggested holding.
mrtopstep HEADS up:hearing the FED has a 2pm dealer call about reverse repo op next week may cause some pressure in the front end
about 2 hours ago from web
EDIT went @ 1.81.......
So it goes.
http://www.etfsecurities.com/en/updates/documen...
http://www.research.gold.org/prices/daily/
WAG - Up nice in today's down tape and one more 52-week high. Sold calls against stock held as it is due for a pullback. Perhaps even a near-term short as it comes back down in the channel.
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=wag
Feel free to ban this clown.
http://www.screencast.com/users/katzo7/folders/...
That drop on SRS to 9.65 would have been good but it was only there for a split second and I wasn't convinced there weren't going to be more high $TICK's.
I'm holding off on putting swings in place for a few days to see if we've gotten the expected pullback. I think I will do much better with swings, I won't be worrying about a couple of pennies on the stops like I do with scalps.
There are so many possibilities and I only want 5-10 at any given time so I am going to be very selective.
[Later] 1087.75
What are the rules with regards to links on here and getting something rejected?
EWA - Sold @ $24.02. Bought last week @ $22.70. Plan to buy it back lower early next week, hopefully back in the 22s.
http://finviz.com/publish/101609/EWAc1dl1405.png
Board:
HGSI is getting some option activity today. C upgraded the stock to $30/share yesterday. There will be disclosure on 10/20 and they will also host a 11/2 conference call to discuss top-line results from Belimumab (Benlysta), a drug to treat lupus. I'd buy the November 20's for $3.50 right here. Or, maybe wait for Monday and another down day possibly. The conservative way to play would be via a straddle as you never know which way these decisions are going to go and how the Market will react. It may be big either way. After all, there is a big gap below.
Anyway, HGSI will get taken out eventually imo. They also have a drug in development for Hepatitis C.
Gusto
admin
Site Admin
return 25% by Nov OpEx if it gets called away.
http://www.cboe.com/TradTool/webcast.aspx?chann...
I' m a tuxedo black and white cat and I just walked past your dog house. Courtesy of Barry Ritholtz via Jeff Saut of Raymond James:
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALe...
Your post from the other day mentioned PRICE is everything, yet this piece places emphasis on price movement, which I equate with momentum. I went back and could not find your original entry to hone in on what you were referring to. Is this because you use technical analysis and this article has a fundamentalist perspective?
Can anyone give me some input on Pfizer? Wyeth shares converted over, it seems undervalued and it's not a risky stock (ALL stocks are risky) and it now has a mountain of debt.
Berkowitz at Fairholme has been riding it for a while, and he's no slouch, so now I'm overweight PFE, unless FAIRX sold it off recently.
Long term chart:
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=PFE&ty=c&ta=0&p=m
They announce earnings on Tuesday.
Selling on strength yesterday has me a bit concerned.