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We have arrived very close to my road map post 1120 of $SPX 50% fib. Also we are near the end of October timeframe.
http://bluechipbulldog.blogspot.com/2009/08/end...
Tomorrow's close may actually show a flat doji day with a lot of volatility and the time to short with vigor may come starting Monday. We shall see.
Of course everything is subject to change...Hope everyone had a profitable trading day.
Are you expecting a 10% correction from SPX 1120? I have been scaling into my /ES short since 1075. Yeah it was too early, but I was able to reduce my cost basis by managing my position every day.
Btw, Carl Futia is calling for a 20-30 point break [ http://carlfutia.blogspot.com/2009/10/some-obse... ] from the /ES 1094 level.
I am making sure that I enough dry powder left to add to my /ES short to 1120+.
You guys are the best. Thanks for your willingness to share your thoughts...best of luck
Your analysis has been on spot on. Again. Thank You.
Sure glad we didn't ask you to present the bearish case when the charts were telling you we're going higher.
I for one am very grateful you told us that the setup suggests we're headed higher, but also advised caution.
Look at us now.
You are amazing.
Once again thank you for good info that is well presented. And good commenters; I like minireaper, inthepink, the /ES folks; 'cause I'm an /ES kind of guy. And, well, just everybody.
And very little drama, just the facts ma'am. Yes I admit I do have other personalities and like to sometimes be silly or even egg headed from time to time, but what a cool, calm place to be here on BCB.
Just sayin'. Not puttin' anyone down or comparing.
Best Regards :-)
on a $TICK graph set the timeframe to 1min, then add study MovAvgExponential
length 60
Good trading to everyone.
Remember that?
Brinks out.
Thanks moo & brinkley -- this is a wonderful site!
covered shorts @ 1083.25, +3 < was looking for 82.50, but I'll take it
I tweeted this earlier, but was wrestling with Disqusr. I added to AGU and POT longs this morning and entered SOHU and SUN. Tight stops and most likely day trades, but we shall see.
When pondering the US Dollar over the past week I remember that I had this tucked away on my computer. This is from Jesse's Cafe Americain a few months ago about the dollar and stock strength and weakness and what it all means. To summarize:
1) when the dollar and stocks are both up, we are in a true bull market with a healthy, strong economy.
2) when the dollar is down and stocks are up, we are in a 'fake' bull market (see 2003-2007) where equities are rising only because the dollar is falling and exports become cheaper, but it is not really healthy or sustainable.
3) when the dollar is rising and equities are falling, we are experiencing deflation (last fall.)
4) when the dollar falls and equities fall too, well, game over basically.
Good luck to everyone today!
Thanks for this, Fish.
fwiw ... keep an eye on oil today (report at 11:00 am) ... it could move the ES today out of its range ...
I will do that
Thanks Morisse!
What would be your choice moo or brinkley.
Joe Quinlin from US Trust has a lot of his wealthy customers 50% in BRIC's.
+5,234 in the sim today with a huge risk holding two shorts over night into earnings.
Wow, $5k day. Took an overnight to achieve it which I still refuse to do with my real money.
This strangle is currently bid at 14.80. Last night you could get 20 for it. Typically IV rise would take care of the theta crush but not today.
Brinkley gets a big cupcake with valentine sprinkles on this one from me for observations made more than a month ago. I reconsidered OIH puts and closed them for a little more than break even. If I had gone long (and stuck with the full position) a bit earlier than I did, I would be sitting on a mountain of profit. As it is, I'm sitting on perhaps a nice-sized haystack and happy for it.
Big hugs from the filthy miner, b. ;-)
bender
http://screencast.com/t/F1e4fdo2uJmk
http://screencast.com/t/vxenQ07EqJG
Real trades 3 fas longs, profit stops killed and filled below entries -$49
Sim Trades:
FAZ 5k long from yesterday +2300 (stopped out in the gap zone under the open price)
TZA +500 stop in, trade still working
ICE went long this morning at support +500 hit, I took it into the 5min 50ma and sold
Later All
I have not been trading oil, tried to catch OIH back at 115 on a nice set up and we opened up that Monday (I think it was) with a big gap above it and it never pulled back for a clean entry for my style.
short ES @ 1087.25, stop above 1088. Looking for rotation back down to 1084-1083 possibility.
Also eating cheddar corn chowder for lunch
http://chart.ly/ateqbm
SRZ may be the new SRZ, breaking up a bit
with volume.
LTON wins lotto of the day though.
EDIT- out of MPG, still in SRZ
LTON was a good trade for me today....
Thanks Moo...Ms B....
I'm not trading that rubbish
http://slopeofhope.com/2009/10/i-still-really-l...
TAZ, I placed a small Vegas Style Lotto trade a few minutes ago....Thought of you cause of the "LOTTO" aspect...more like a small gamble if you ask me..... 10% probability of success...
Bought the BIDU OCT 420 call for 85 cents on the sell off.... may sell 1/2 if BIDU can make a run into the close and have a free roll... in any case, it is a small trade and has already been written off as a loss....Would be nice to see GOOG blow away earnings and announce a 2 for 1 split...now that would make cause the shorts a lot of pain!!
Have a great day everyone!!
I know AAPL refused to ever split.
I think GOOG may never split also.....they may have made that statement in the past...
7 11 back door little Joe. Feel like I'm at the craps table with dinner money on the line
short ES @ 86.25, looking for 84.25 or below
FAS stopped out at 17.99
TZA still long from 10.82
Added ICE long at 96.35 +.10 stop in on it
CY reported $0.10 earnings, better than expected ($0.06). Shares nevertheless down -3.9% premarket.
Bought @ 9.66. Sold @ 10.10. Held for a 7-day swing...
Good luck to all in these OpEx-y times...I know my limits so I'm in cash.
went long ES @ 83.25
EDIT....left CROX @ 8.05......
Up 15% on good news.
That's what I do for /ES
time losing all their money....... had a nice lunch.......won't go
there again......
Linktone Enters Into Mobile Video Agreement With China National Radio Mobile Media 10/15 07:00 AM
FWIW, IMO the big move in the GBP was mostly due to a report that QE will be ending soon. Now if the US is really serious about a strong dollar (instead of jawboning it), they'd start making the same statements. The only problem with that is bonds would fly!
Pros at work, sold the Volatility.
Selling the naked strangle would have worked even better. 195-190 was yielding close to 6 at close, now it is down to 2. I was afraid of big moves though in retrospect it might have been a gamble worth taking since GS was going to beat so downside surprise was limited and after the run up and Whitney downgrade, it was unlikely to run above 200.
I am no sure whether I would do the naked strangle on GOOG. It has the same character: Run up into earnings which are expected to be positive. But Goog tends to pin so still might be worth it.
I can't sell naked options in the accounts I trade options in so I can't execute these types of strategies.
Rosa: LOL! "corner offices"
I would have thought that derivatives to be registered legislation passing would have brought the mighty down, but does not look like as if they care. Perhaps 'they' know it is just drama and nothing that reforms is going to pass!
But having said all of that, the older generations like my grandparents' age love to talk about the Civil War.... and the JFK assassination
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087...
My sell @ 2.65 was hit...and then she ran.....
EDIT...stopped out LTON......@ 2.83
Not sure what to make of the weakness of GOOG today going into earnings, it can be a crafty devil, i guess we'll find out soon enough.
2 FAS trades 20min early under 90 and got chopped out blown out of profit stops.
Where's that mood ring..mines probably black right now.
I feel twice the nervous nellie for dumping NOV115 calls for a modest gain, even though the price action was hardly scary. Those would have been more than doubles by now.
The JAN125s (though also pared unjustifiably) are still around, cost approx 4.80, now bid 9.80. A little bit of patience, when it comes to both buying and selling, would serve me better.
And how about that SLW, sheilas and blokes? Silver still down almost a point, SLW now flat and near new highs.
Now if only HGSI would justify that nice volume bump with a breakout ...
Actually, I see no news. Broke out with some volume though. Six-month daily
Left @ 3.07......won't chase it anymore......ran up 3.20.....and quick drop....
DTO back under 66, I have a limit order for 65.99 for a swing play which I will hold for at least 1 week.
http://screencast.com/t/QyGkbeFrb
http://i34.tinypic.com/2430wib.jpg
By the way, today (Thu already over in Asia) was THE day Indian consumers buy more gold than others, so think Spot gold has some more downside...
In BEE 2.55 stop 2.49
BEE holds over 2.6 = watchout
edit- damn, sould've held srz and mpg for another 5% today
BEE moving atleast
Gasoline Inventories Fall by 5.2M Barrels so more people are buying gas than expected and we get this buying spree today correct?
keep up the great work Brinks & Moo
Short 500 BLK 227.15, sim trade swing, gonna hold it as long as my DTO swing. At least a week.
Whaddaya think, moo?
here. As per SLW, as with most miners, these are to thought of as leveraged
instruments w/respect to the metal in day to day action. Overall, SLW is
actually still under priced with respect to the price of the metal at this
point imo. It should be above the price of SLV itself. There is alot of
catching up still if everything holds mostly the same market theme wise...
yesterday....
Got in FAS 2500 shares at avg of 91. I have a .25 trailer on it now. Might be the trick to trading FAS for me. Half order on a break out set up, if it fails put in the other half at the lowest price point (90.90 on this trade). If that fails take the loss.
Have a good evening
Nice to see GDX holding above the previous swing top.