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http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?s=&sh...
Note: I'm long all manner of things that could be hurt by a dollar surge, but that's why I'm paying attention.
Am just watching for now. Need a decent fall from here for the ES to go long.
Yet another trader has questioned Ms Brinkley's motives?
Due to envy perhaps?
As to Brinkley.....I am dismayed by what has occurred.
Right now I'm exhausted and have a heavy heart.
Because Brinkley is irreproachable in her comportment (would that I had such constraint and class at times) such insinuations made by others reflect poorly on the makers and not Brinkley.
She is indeed and I agree about what these criticisms reveal about those who've made them,
but the fact remains that her integrity has been questioned more than once, and attempts are being made to discredit her.
TBT and the 5-10-30 yr. indexes with the PNF and the weekly with their EMA’s….
The 30 Year Yield Index has seen its weekly momentum turn positive but that has not changed the longer term chart pattern. The trend chart remains negative as it trades below the bearish resistance line which means that the trend of longer term rates is negative. While the TYX has seen a rally during the past week, that rally has just brought the TYX up to just below the bearish resistance line and to the middle of the ten week trading band.
http://screencast.com/t/WZfL5q3t
http://screencast.com/t/5ocJmtoc
The 10 Year Yield Index chart remains on a spread quadruple bottom sell signal given at 32.5 this month. As fast as the TNX fell to 31.5, it rallied to 34. This rally merely brings the TNX up to the bearish resistance line and into a strong resistance area at 35. For now, the trend remains negative here.
http://screencast.com/t/pj9TNvEYf6
http://screencast.com/t/Axih6Pdm
The longer term charts as well as the short term chart on the 5 Year Yield Index shows a negative trend. Like the long and intermediate term rate picture, short term rates have rallied during the past week but that rally has not materially changed the Point & Figure charts from a negative trend and suggesting lower rates. If you look at my weeklies you can see that perhaps these PNF’s will be reversed and rates will head higher but as of now the jury is out and I am playing TBT a little tighter than I feel I should…When and if rates move materially higher TBT will be where you want to be buttttttt is that now???
http://screencast.com/t/Debp4FG6C
TBT is a good issue to “Trade what you see not what you feel”….anyway…just a thought…
Remember, price before anything else. PRICE.
The wave count looks easy enough to resolve here:
On the bearish view we are near completing the C wave of an ABC correction up. As & when that finishes, in a way most likely defined by the July to October rising wedges and the falling bear market trendline established 'Oct 07 to May '08. The upper channel of the bear wedge is at 1104 (thanks Joe) & rising a couple of points per day, and the bear market trendline is at 1120 or so. On the most credible EW ABC count in my view, we cannot rise past 1120, so a turn on all these counts looks very likely within a few days.
The bullish view looks very similar, except that we are completing the C wave up of an ABCDE bullish wave. On that count too everything immediate looks the same, save that the coming wave D down cannot fall further than the top of wave A at 956. If we break 956, then we are most likely in P3.
I posted this chatting to a passing bull on SOH yesterday:
'You are looking at 666 to 956 as wave 1, 956 to 870 as wave 2, 870 to ? as wave 3, and wave 4 coming up therefore can't go lower than the top of wave 1 at 956.
If your count is right, and we are in a new bull market, the next few months could be a lot of fun.
Let's say we top at 1120, having risen 250 in wave 3, and then correct back 62% to 970. We could then start a wave 5 up that would have to be less than 250, as wave 3 cannot be the shortest of the three upward waves. Wave 5 would therefore be capped at 1220.
After that we would expect a three wave correction downwards to retrace 38% to 62% of the rally to the end of wave 5. If wave 5 topped at 1220 then a correction of 210 to 345 points would be expected before another five waves up began.
Sounds great. Let's hope it plays out that way.'
Either way, the future will clarify a lot over the coming month or two, and the market before us will become much more easily profitable, which will be a relief to most here.
Meantime, we should work out how best to profit from the wave down that looks as though it is now coming within days.
Obviously it was written for a bear blog & was not a popular view there at all. Wave count looks very clear either way though. Either of the bull or bear scenarios look very interesting from here.
One lesson I have definitely learned over the last few months is that I should have spent much more of it here. Not a mistake I plan to repeat in the next six months.
Barring a surprise in the next 45 minutes, the market is set for a big gap up at the open. Be on the alert for the possibility that the gap will be faded, at least to some extent. The markets have come far, and as mentioned and illustrated, major resistance is not far away and the odds of a correction getting underway relatively soon are quite high. Trade the trend, but guard your profits carefully up here, with stops in place at all times. I have things to tend to before the open. See you in the pits.
http://tinyurl.com/yhlnjk3
After the September highs were taken out today, I had to update several of my charts. Here are a few of them … HOWEVER before proceeding I would note that tomorrow presents both (1) several news events; and (2) several major earnings reports, which can impact the markets.
http://tinyurl.com/ykg6z38 (USD at newer ST lows and closes daily below an important weekly line)
The USD and Volatility continue to favor bulls, and NY Composite led the major indexes today.
http://tinyurl.com/yh8xrzy ($NYA helped by the move in financials today)
Two areas that helped the MM’s pushed the Dow over 10,000 were the cyclicals and transports. Notice the unusual spikes in each of these areas (which seem a bit overdone to me).
http://tinyurl.com/ykmxv2s (cyclicals have led the market rally, and spiked up BIG today)
http://tinyurl.com/yzcukg7 (transports are NOT on a dow theory signal yet ... they need a new high)
there is a pretty interesting FXY chart here ... http://etfstocks.typepad.com/
Are you sure the trannies didn't make a new closing high on Wednesday? Richard Russell of Dow Theory Letters wrote that they had done so after that remarkable spike. I was very surprised, I wasn't expecting a new high below SPX 1120.
USD is interesting as well. If you regard the two peaks as a rather unbalanced double top, then that would indicate to slightly over 73. We're close to that now and that fits reasonably well with your lower trendline as well.
I agree the move was surprisingly huge (and rather awkward)
still considering what the implications might be.
2009/10/15 Disqus <>
The raw cumulative $NYAD is showing a much clearer picture, with a still-very-intact trend.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYAD&p=D&b=5&...
I'm watching $NYA50R carefully.
Flat for now... but placing a paper trade on the /ES short at 1084
During the past few months while other risk assets have rallied and the USD dumped, oil has been range bound. If the global economy is becoming better, oil should have had some bid.
It is action like this, which sometimes makes me wonder if the big boys have been told to keep a cap on oil speculation to limit the tax on consumers.
If you come to think if it, a weak dollar, low long term interest rates, a roaring stock market and a range bound oil. The market is giving the Fed and the Obama administration, everything and anything they could have wished for during this period.
http://tinyurl.com/yj5srbd
short ES 1083.50 pre-market and sold oct 1080 calls
Left my AMD position AH @ 6.41.....now trading @ 6.37 PM.....
Still looking @ the menu as I am hungry....but nothing hits me yet......Hiker posted his concerns and I hope they were not taken wrong.....I like his take as it is healthy for the blog....Ms Brinkley continues to trade the charts....gives her concerns @ key levels...but trades the trend until market shows it's changing....
Now lets get some ideas out there.....
I quietly follow many traders, and your posts are included in that group. Let me first say that you have made so many terrific calls and entries in this market over the past 6 months … that includes holding forth just the other day that oil looked ready to continue up (and it did).
In regards to last night’s rumblings by Hiker, they obviously do not hold true. My comment to you would be don’t let that impact your trading and/or blog activities. A response about it may or may not be worth your consideration or energies.
I have observed that you have not only been gracious with your comments and sharing trading ideas on multiple blogs, but you have taken on a coordinator / leadership role for Moo’s blog which is important to its success (especially with newer traders). Because of the dynamics of that role, you are somewhat set up as a target for odd comments from visitors and participants (think of Tim Knight for another example … the guy has a big target on his back with some of the things he posts … so you are in good company).
Overall, that is the dynamic that I see here. And fwiw … we all have biases – everyone (I spent about 15 years conducting social research so I know quite a bit about this). The best thing that we can do is admit the bias by describing our trading method or the basis for the trade.
However, it is pretty obvious to me that labeling-condemning others in the process does not have to be a part of that kind of disclosure, and that is where I would agree that Hiker over stepped a bit last night. Therefore, I can understand any strong, personal feelings you might have in response to the rather coarse and provocative judgment presented by Hiker. You will need to decide where that energy carries you.
You may have already moved on from this situation. But ... if you have not already, take a deep breath and know that you have a lot of friends in the trading blogosphere. That includes blue dogs, little fish, bears, stewed cows, etc. Have a good evening!
I have found your comments and sharing of insight to be nothing but generous.
Good luck today folks.
Will not short - too risky as of now.
There was no selling of note after Dow 10K. Possibly a pause before the move up.
http://www.rightline.net/calendar/index.html
SLW and CEF are the last positions I will be holding in my core gold/silver stocks whenever that time comes....
SLW and CEF are the last positions I will be holding in my core gold/silver stocks whenever that time comes....
got stopped out of 1/2 83.50 short @ 80.50 for +3, still in remaining
I wonder if they have an in-house cardiologist on the floor at the CME?
http://www.screencast.com/t/Ocq1fNh1T
Business Inventories Down 1.5% (August) Vs. 1.1% (July)
Trade well everyone...
EDIT: starting to make a small move..looking for 5.85 - 5.90
http://safeharborinvestments.com/index.php/our-...
http://esecfutures.com/2009/06/18/cycle-of-trad...
month, ie GCZ9
you must paper trade with your buddy solzilla because there is no way in hell you have any money left if you followed your own calls.
and remember dear katzo - you took your knife out first in this fight.
waiting..........
all with today's low as stops
Wild ending to a football game. When you watch this picture Plymouth as the bulls and Westland J. Glenn as the bears. You'll see what I mean. Be careful before you celebrate.
http://highschool.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=10...
Anything can happen.
Brinkley....stay out of this.....I trade better when I'm PO'd.....
Going for a tall boy......
tight trailer on this one...target is 33.30
Going for another tall boy.....
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AMR&p=60&yr=0&...
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CAL&p=60&yr=0&...
Target #1: 33.30
stop just under 32.44
MPG could move again big 1 way or the other.
SLW added to position @ 14.48
average cost 13.31
AAPL, GOOG new highs
price before all else....
Left TLR....NCS even.....no action.
As for my AM post....did not defend Hiker...was amazed @ his call that people on this blog "can move" market. I only said I did like his charts for different view. Hope it was not taken wrong....done for the day.
Good trading all.....BTW PCS was a steal @ 7.08.....was off by a day.
11:49 AM Eastern Daylight Time, 10/14/2009 (MidnightTrader) -- MetroPCS (PCS:$7.43,00$-0.11,00-1.46%) and Leap Wireless (LEAP:$15.14,00$-0.26,00-1.69%) ease after Wal-Mart (WMT:$50.15,00$-0.19,00-0.38%) says it will offer no-contract mobile-telephone plans for $30 and $45 a month.
Looks like a surge up later, I hope!?
Added quotes...."I told you to buy it Yesterday in the 23.45 area if it got there. It got there close and volume came in.
I would watch the 60 minute candles and trade off the SAR/volume or wait and watch for a restest on lighter volume. I'm like Gusto, it be (about) the volume. Some don't agree."
I have noticed multiple instances of these large drops in EUR.USD in the afternoon session in the last day or two. With Europe done there is less liquidity and more volatility. However I am seeing a lot more large down candles on my intra-minute charts. We have reached an area of major resistance here it seems; a slight drop in conviction from the dollar bears perhaps.
Good read on PM's....
Only took 4.5hrs straight yesterday, 1hr before that and about 3hrs last year on my first attempt. That's what happens when you have zero experience, only some common sense, and a brief understanding of the concepts involved and no facts!
I tell you though, I was SO HAPPY when I got it working. I exhausted every option except the last one that worked.
did any body following this ... ????
3 trades on FAS -$8
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TNX&p=D&yr=0&...
LONG /ES at 1083.75... on board with Fari..
I am surprised at the lack of any profit taking before the inventory report tomorrow.
A/D llines have been declining on both exchanges now. NYSE was close to 2000 earlier today and is 1300 now. NSDQ down from 1570 to 1055.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SD218s8Sexg
The October 200 Calls for instance?
http://screencast.com/t/jLpnUpUMxpK
10 yr.
http://screencast.com/t/DW5G8LrS
30 yr.
http://screencast.com/t/ISQPJ7ELHj
TBT
http://screencast.com/t/7a1aHoBq
http://screencast.com/t/RMrfQNb5ggd
http://screencast.com/t/cDrY3wqlVIs
http://screencast.com/t/lcWxQpThMLP
as you can see on the 15 min. we have a belt of candles and bull alignment on the EMAs and within the standard dev. From the blue EMA..the MACD is in a bull as well…this give us a slight pause when we look at the daily..there I see the histogram trending up(momentum) the MACD bull cross and the EMA’s looking to realign into a bull alignment…the weeklies are showing a nice bull candle arrangement with a trend line break…still a lot of resistance in that picture..our PNF show us in a column of “X”S but we are below the resistance line and do not have a buy signal…if you look at the 10-30 yr.yield charts you can see that a move to higher yields may be just beginning and that is what TBT trades off of…I position issues so my course of action will differ from yours, butttt depending on your option you may want to roll these and buy a longer dated option at a higher strike and pocket the difference..that way you will not miss a move and will be in the option free…anyway…
Of course I did that with GLD and am still waiting for an opportunity to get back in.
I had a porno day as well with MS.
If only GDX could trade a little bit more like OIH, I'd be a happy camper. GDX seems designed to throw people off, again in both directions.
I like TZA 10k long if IWM crosses 62.34 with volume
Here is a Market Delta footprint chart filtering out trades of 50 contracts or more in the ES futures (click for detail). As you can see from the blue arrows, large trades executed at the offer price were a nice indication of an upside breakout move in the making. Unable for selling to take us below the day's VWAP, we made a run for the overnight highs and took them out.
Chart http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_7VHLCUlm_9o/StYnpYOKO...
Dr B.
5 mins ago.
won't know until mid-night
Total contrarian balls out trade.
Will find out if C and GS can step up to the plate with JPM as the lead off run.
The market will let you know when to short. What's different about falling knives and rising knives? Whatever. AAPL reports Monday. GL
http://www.screencast.com/users/katzo7/folders/...
Do you see /ES hitting reasonable amount of resistance at /ES 1090 and might break 20 points to, say, 1070?
Thanks.
http://carlfutia.blogspot.com/2009/10/at-resist...
Just got here. Haven't done my prep yet (am running a bit late). Will get back to you if I have anything that might be useful.
I'm still feeling good about the USD/JPY pair. All other major currencies are hitting highs against the US but not the JPY. If you can't tell there is a major central bank intervention going on here. We'll see if 89 holds by the end of the Asia session. I'm adding slowly but surely on any drops that don't break 88.
I was putting the EW case for not exceeding 1120 this morning. Now I'd like to look at the wedges and topping patterns on the SPX, mirrored on the Dow & others.
http://www.screencast.com/users/springheel_jack...
We broke the upper channel line of the main rally wedge (red) today. This does not kill the wedge. Bulkowski says that broken wedges tend to perform better than unbroken ones. The principal strike against this wedge is that it would be a bearish continuation pattern, whereas rising wedges are primarily bearish reversal patterns.
The second rising wedge (blue) is for the rally since July, and that would be a bearish reversal pattern. We broke down out of it and today we broke back in. That may weaken the pattern according to Bulkowski, but definitely does not kill it. The top channel of that wedge I put at 1110, though Joe reckoned it at 1104 today. It is rising at a couple of points a day though, so by Friday it should hit 1108 either way.
The third pattern (black) is a pattern that the second rising wedge has been morphing into, and that is the Bearish Broadening Ascending Wedge Top Pattern that McHugh has pointed out. As the name suggests, that is a bearish termination pattern, and the top channel is also at the 1108 / 1110 level. The bottom channel, which would be the likely minimum target level for the next wave down, is at 1030.
To take a longer view here is a chart of the bear market to date:
http://www.screencast.com/users/springheel_jack...
The falling trendline was set between October 2007 and May 2008, and should represent heavy resistance. I would place it between 1110 and 1120.
Just to summarise then, we have heavy pattern resistance from the top channels of two patterns at the 1105 to 1110 level, and are extremely likely to bounce off them and return to the lower channel of the Bearish Broadening Ascending Wedge Top Pattern, at perhaps 1040 by the time we would return to it. We also have the descending trendline of the rally to date just above that to act as further serious resistance to prevent the SPX reaching 1121, which is the 50% retracement level for the bear market.
We may well reach 1105 tomorrow by the look of it, otherwise Friday. I will most definitely be shorting there. I'll be adding until we reach 1120, as a break through the top of the rising wedge since July would not only be a frequent occurrence, but according to Bulkowski, would strengthen the pattern considerably.
The stochs look ready to turn down at any time IMO. RSI looks as though it will be ready in a couple of days, which fits my timeframe & I am very aware that if the 1110 - 1120 level is as significant as I am suggesting, we may stall for a week or so in that area as we did at the significant interim top in June.
MACD is less encouraging at first glance, but when compared with the infamous failed H&S from May to July, you see that then the MACD peaked at the time of the LS top in May at ~930, dropped somewhat for the peak in early June at ~960 and dropped further for the RS top iat the end of June at ~930. What we're seeing now looks entirely consistent with that, and I would go further and suggest that we may be seeing another H&S pattern developing here with a neckline that looks likely to be in the 1040 - 1050 range, which is another encouraging indicator that we will most likely correct back to there soon.
More than anything else, this is a scalp scenario based on the wedge and broadening top patterns with a target slide from the 1110 - 1120 area to the 1040 - 1050 area. There may be a more sustained slide after that, but I'm not thinking primarily of that.
ACOR has three upgrades I see so far...
Acorda Therapeutics FDA panel near best case, says JP Morgan
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What's the weather like in Texas today?
Here it's rainy (appreciated) and quite cool in the evenings. Hoping for some sunny days soon. Need to feel that warmth - which you have plenty of.
Will they give us a blow off top tomorrow on opex?
She's about done.
Is this dip a buying opportunity?
C currently down 3% in pre-market.
NOK currently down 8.45% in pre-market.
Edited