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I still believe that we are carving a bottom here at /ES 1030-1035 area, however if the dollar continue to climb we will go much much lower.
It is impossible for be to post my comments these past few days as I am focus on my own positions and looking at market action for profitable signs, but a always, when we are in a possible trend change the volatility is heightened and placing stops becomes more challenging, if I even use them. When I don't I must pay very close attention.
Hope everyone did well.
You didn't say but I'm guessing you did well today.
Any charts or insights you can share over the weekend would be much appreciated.
You've been talking about our oversold levels for some time now. What are you currently using as an indicator of this? What time-frame? I've been focused on removing the concept of overbought and oversold conditions from my trading. The past 2 years have created an environment that these seem no longer historically accurate. I would however love hear how you determine these condition's. Thanks!
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NAMO&p=D&yr=1...
There is now fear in this market and for once the bulls were scared. There was a BAC-ML analyst who had come out to say that the October decline will happen but will be delayed and that seems to be coming true. The economic news has been mixed over the past few weeks and we need a catalyst to get some real buying.
I also felt that long only mutual funds who are supposedly just 1% in cash started liquidating this week as their year came to an end. With very little short interest there are no natural buyers.
The money on the sideline argument is kind of specious; current money flow data suggests that money is exiting the US equity markets. Further those who missed the rally are in general unlikely to jump in now simply because they remain skeptical of the underlying economy; they have taken a 50% haircut twice in a decade are simply not comfortable risking it again in equities.
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GOOG and AAPL have filled their earnings gap; will AMZN also do that?
hope everyone was able to protect themselves today ... this selling does not look like it is over ...
have a good weekend!
daily MACD's are a complete mess on all of these (If you like to use this tool).
Watching the PMs during the next broad market selloff (hard not to expect one soon, perhaps next session) will be riveting, particularly if we get the kind of positive divergence we saw today. Fascinating (and moderately encouraging, though the PMs are treacherous bitch-goddesses to long and short alike) action today to see GDX follow gold up on increasing volume amid the bloodbath.
USO/OIH, by comparison, mostly just took their beatings into the close (though there was a small positive divergence there as well, nothing compared to GLD/GDX).
I saw your pumpkin avatar comment earlier but didn't understand what you were saying. Is the picture we see actually a carving on a pumpkin?
Stocks are plunging Friday, and the odds are very high that catastrophic wave (C ) down has started. This should be a relentless decline to new lows, with a series of stock market crashes occurring over the next two years. The S&P 500 has dropped below the botttom boundary of its Ascending Expanding Bearish Wedge, and stocks are far below their bottom boundaries of Rising Bearish Wedges from March 2009. Cash will be critical for conservative investors.
We have updated annotated charts for the S&P 500 and Industrials, available now at the Australia Daily button at www.technicalindicatorindex.com
Mid-day Friday, Gold is actually performing fairly well, rising as stocks fell, down only 2.5 after being off 10 earlier. Silver, same thing, down "only" 0.31. The HUI is off 17, and that index seems to be mirroring stocks, not gold at this time. Oil is off 2.87, the Russell 2000 is down 18, the S&P 500 is down 29, with the Industrials down 242 at the time of this writing, after being down 270 points earlier. The NDX is down 44 and NASDAQ is down 54. The VIX has risen a huge 6.7 and is over 30.
The warnings have been here for a while. This is a very dangerous market at this time.
I just signed up for a month trial, so I thought I would post his update.
;)
Have a great weekend.
http://www.screencast.com/users/Jayhawk1991/fol...
http://www.screencast.com/users/Jayhawk1991/fol...
YRCW @ 3.52.....
EDIT....out @ 3.64.....WOW.....
http://www.screencast.com/users/springheel_jack...
Next best short setup is if we bounce at 1020ish and rise to 1080 to make the RS of an H&S pattern indicating to 940.
Wave-A: 3/6 -> 5/8 = 63 cds
Wave-B: 5/8 -> 7/8 = 61 cds (a running correction)
Wave-C: 7/8 -> 9/23 = 77 cds
Wave-D: 9/23 -> 10/31 = 38 cds (another running correction)
Wave-E: the "devastating" wave, starts monday.
(Up, of course)
Wave-D is .618% of Wave-B
Wave-C is 1.236% (2 x .618) of Wave-A
(Wave-A + Wave-C)/(Wave-B + Wave-D) = exact sq root of 2 (1.414)
(tolerances within one SPX point)
* neely is the waver whom i first saw write of the "ABCDE" corrective formation with the "devastating" Wave-E.
http://siliconinvestor.advfn.com/readmsg.aspx?m...
pointing yourself up from another account ??
Vix posts monthly bullish reversal candle after 3 monthly doji's. Highest monthly gain since oct 2008 peak. Bullish vix/bearish markets.
Added: I thought I'd take my mask off since I wear it everyday.
FOMC 3-4 Nov
Obama to China 15 Nov and for good measure...
Full Moon Mon
treats to all
Good call on LVS. How did you know it would get a rise after earnings even though WYNN took a hit a couple of days earlier? Was it in part because LVS had already dropped as a result of the WYNN report?
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btw ... INDU heading for -300 ... looks like a sell off developing into the close ... ES below lod ...
see if it breaks through 2.40
??
SNDK - It is just at 50 dMA. Going long via selling Nov Puts. Stop if SNDK < $20.2
Brinkley, what do you think of a BIDU to 345 or lower? It seems $400 was pretty much it i.e. backtest of the trendline it nuked for earnings..
What about you? How are you doing? Btw, my email is karen at dojigirl dot com, if you ever want to chat off the board.
I've been shaving back puts today, but I still want insurance for the longs, and what more ironic insurance could there be than my remaining PRU puts? I'm in Decembers, with other lots for IWM, IYR, FXI, BNI, QQQQ and SPY, plus Januarys on BNI and GMCR (thank you, brinkley, for that one).
So, with PMs still down heavy, I'm down, too, but those puts have cushioned some of the blow.
Myself, I've become quite the customer for the MAR14s.
PMs looking better and better as they day goes on.
SLW is Nov 15 calls.
Today I picked up springtime calls in various PMs and JAN55 (2011) calls on GDX. If PMs trend up in the coming months, the leverage will be huge. If they don't, at least premium decay is muted.
Can't believe GLD is going positive !
Entered @ 4.04......
Sold when it broke under. Who knows where the bottom is?
Do I post to much?.....tell the truth....I can handle it.....
1. Yes
2. Bring it on Taz
3. You need help......
:)
Works both ways though....
HERO @ 4.92.....small position
EXECUTIONS FOR THIS TRADE
Date Time Price Quantity Total
10/30/2009 02:27:10 PM $4.92 100.000 $492.00
10/30/2009 02:27:10 PM $4.92 1,100.000 $5,412.00
NET TOTAL 1,200.000 $5,904.00
Dollar not helping the market.
Wow, today has beeen all about hitting the sell button. We touched the 78% Fib retracement of this last run up. Question for me is, will we make it down to the 100% retracement at some point, like we did in July retracement.
Of course could be lots of twists and turns in between, don't know, just following my signals to buy/sell.
FWIW.
Wow. I guess the Sep-Oct replay didn't work? Hahahaha. Needless to say I was stopped out of my SSO before I even got to REM sleep. -3%. Will look at the charts over the weekend but at first blush it looks like the USD is off of the mat.
Of course what do I know!
Now...did Moo dress up as a 100 OZ bar?
And Ms B....an inverted H&S?