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I've also assured him that while he is greatly missed, we will manage just fine until he's better, and urged him to focus on getting well and not to worry about the blog. I'll keep you updated regarding his progress, and I'll be around later today and this week. Feel better soon, moo!
*Edit -- just realized you were referring to RB. You're the one digging up little-known "nuggets" trading for under $1, however. ; )
Still plenty of reasons to be nervous about IYR, though. It's sitting above a big congestion zone, and it has a habit of making up lost ground in a hurry, perhaps as liquidity chases returns in underperforming sectors toward the end of mini-rallies, forcing a cover by shorts who always like to pile on top of CRE. Gauging the magnitude of the next short squeeze, if and when it happens, will hopefully offer a insight into how much bear-trapping power is left in that sector.
Compare it to SPY's recent action (fueled in part by the rise of XLE, of course), and IYR seems a *little* safer to be short, at least for a trade. If it could only break the 50ema, I'd feel even better about it.
I was playing around with Fibonacci EMAs and time series this morning and believe I've found something quite compelling: This coming week appears to be 4,181 weeks from the peak before the Great Depression (Sept 3, 1929). Furthermore, we are currently trying to break through (and so far are being repelled from) the 610-week EMA (1093.76). Both of these facts could support the argument of those who are calling for something significant to occur relatively soon.
http://screencast.com/t/ImLOEtu75yFf
Cheers, Jamesbo
This is a very interesting chart. Thanks for coming over and sharing it.
My thoughts for the week -
http://chartsandcoffee.blogspot.com/2009/10/sun...
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I posted this over at SOH in response to Fujisan's post this morning (her post is worth reading) ...
After looking at my charts yesterday, I agree that we could have another move up ... but rather than relying on a specific target and/or approach (like strictly following EWI or Gann) I am taking a more eclectic approach ... as a result I am looking at what happens to the market near these areas ... first 1108 area (an area with some confluence just above the big 1100 number BUT also noted by Haefke on Friday) ... second 1121 (where there is a lot going on charts technically) ... and then 1144 which is an EW projection number from the stockcharts folks of c wave ... if we move beyond these areas I will begin looking at Fujisan's 1159 and the targets suggested by Haefke for the $INDU (see video below) ...
http://tinyurl.com/ygz4mxr (an $SPX chart mirroring the $INDU chart from EWI)
On the tape ... I am seeing some disconnection between the $SPX and $INDU so I am watching that more closely ... this disconnection could simply be related to the recent bold move by oil and other commodities ... the $TRAN has NOT confirmed with a higher high (e.g., Dow Theory) so I have NO long positions ... additionally related to this Tim Haefke amended his September comments on Friday which you can see here ...
http://tinyurl.com/yzcukg7 (Transports lack dow theory signal)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gWyonzpA-HU (Haefke adjusts outlook Friday)
LOTS GOING ON underneath the surface here (imo) ... so less than 10% of my trading account is short in various put positions and I am basically positioned to pounce until this extended up move MORE CLEARLY changes ... in the very ST I see some weakness and the market running out of fuel (much like Zigzag's 2nd chart in Fujisan's post) ...
Here is his email....
JUST SOME INFO ON ECU SILVER. a short film off of canadian tv and their last press release. What I like about them is that they were an exploration company and now they are actually producing with two mills. Most companies have no mill, just a hole w/ a liar above ground. These guys are actually producing gold and silver dore, which they ship out, and now they are going to start the second mill for base minerals, lead and zinc. One of the guys at the top of the company, is Michel Roy. Hear nothing but good stuff about him. Older guy, nothing but mining experience. Check it out, let me know what you think. Did you pick up additional shares? THANKS, E
http://www.b-tv.com/features/watch-now.html?cli...
Some chart data...http://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?ric=ECU.TO
This is a BIG lotto...BTW
Sixty charts at two year highs:
http://www.gamingthemarket.com/charts
Mean reversion is going to come into play soon with every major index
and
How to make $16k in a week with linear regression:
http://www.gamingthemarket.com/two-year-highs.html
Disclosure - I'm printing out the whole of "Hard Right Edge" into a binder form for our trading club. I have printed out the whole of other free sites and put into binders previously. I take all my trading books and binders there once a month, put them on a table for loan, and ask to write down only for the persons name and book title. My belief is that people will read, do better, and will return the books/materials to me. :-)
"8. Look for stock prices to move in lockstep with the index futures at least 75% of the time. The percentage rises during the midday doldrums and drops in the first and last hours of trading. "
I've noticed the opposite for most of this year. Absolute orgy in the first 30min to 1hr and then nothing all day long has felt like a theme most of this year. I can't even count on a big close (as opposed to some huge PPT induced closes in the past). I've also noticed on gap days more of a muted first hour and THEN a gap fill reaction after about 1hr into the open. Last week we even got a gap run at 12:30. All I can garner from this is, "the market is changing". Last year I remember at least 3 distinctly different market environments to trade in.
I've stopped trading the last half hour of our market for most of this year. It worked like a charm last year, but this year I can't count on it and find myself trapped in a position most of the time by taking a late trade. I've never liked trading the first 30min unless of course you jump in and get it right immediately then hop out just as fast. I'm rarely that mentally alert at 6:30am my time to do it and get it right.
Best Regards
http://pragcap.com/do-you-have-what-it-takes-to...
Then talk to Ms. Bluechip. Tell her oral sex will cure the flu. If she takes her pants off, tell her it's for you, not her.
Get well soon.
ICE and CME continuance today?
CIT: 1.16 to 1.25
RNN: 0.89 to 1.09
IPCS (IPCS:$17.88,00$0.00,000.00%) : 19.60 to 23.90
ALLI: 5.58 to 6.65
ARMH: 7.49 to 7.75
HGSI: 20.24 to 20.80
FIGI: 0.46 to 1.10
AEZS: 1.25 to 1.47
CRIC: 14.52 to 16.50
BEST: 1.52 to 1.75
IMMU: 4.95 to 5.50
DOWNSIDE MOVERS
AMGN: 60.75 to 57.20
FNM: 1.45 to 1.40
FRE: 1.70 to 1.63
IDCC: 22.65 to 22.15
BBT: 28.23 to 27.14
BEXP: 9.89 to 9.65
Thanks in advance.
An excert from "Hard Right Edge" a free site with loads of info: http://www.hardrightedge.com/tw.htm
RECOGNIZING FALSE BREAKOUTS AND WHIPSAWS
The market is generating its fair share of colorful phraseology these days. Many traders are calling it nerve-racking or unreliable, while Cody's classic use of the term "dislocations" should find a permanent home in the Terminology Hall of Fame. But is this market really any different from the past?
Of course it's not. The market is bobbing and weaving the same way all stocks, sectors and indices do the majority of the time. Prices trend for a little while and then spend endless weeks testing higher and lower boundaries. Our frustration in playing this market is really a matter of perception, not reality.
The real driver for trader pain this year is the endless series of whipsaws and false breakouts. It feels as though common knowledge of price levels is being used against traders in a conscious and diabolical manner. Of course there's a reason for this ominous feeling. It's absolutely true.
Many computer algorithms running the market these days spin off public trader strategies at key price levels. Big money knows it can control price direction, regardless of where the herd is charging at the time. So it implements computer programs that fade the herd's response in order to trap them and generate quick profits.
However, swing traders encounter whipsaws and false breakouts throughout their careers, and we can't always blame our fate on cold-hearted computer programs. In fact, simple crowd psychology does a great job by itself of generating false breakouts, in most cases without the assistance of hidden forces.
So how do we deal with whipsaws and false breakouts? First, realize that traders spend too much time predicting the future and not enough time just managing what the future offers. Then remember that everything we do in our trading activities is simply an odds game. This reminds us that risk management is a required skill for survival
2 shots vodka....add 1/3 TP pepper....drink fast
1 clove garlic....diced....place on buttered toast
HOT green/black tea...2 cups per 6 hour shift
Rest for 3 hours @ 79 degree setting
1 hour session (sex)...2 times per 24 hour shift.......
Good luck Moo....call me if you need further advice......Taz
EDIT...BTW Moo...I love getting the flu.....FWIW
Get well soon!
Advil and rest.
Get well.
Yankees win.
Stay out of drafts and sunlight for awhile.
I'm playing around in freestockcharts.com today and it looks like it is going to do everything I was looking for in regard to the multiple tabs for charts in different time frames etc. I'll use it this week and see how it works.
Edit: originally said finviz but meant to say freestockcharts.com
Moo, hope you feel better and get well soon.
Cheers.
Get well soon Moo
According to UBS, cash positions reach their lowest levels since January 2004 as asset allocators chase equities
I guess when they talk of cash on the sidelines they are referring to Ben/Geithner!
http://twitter.com/alaidi
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Oct 19 (Reuters) - Noncommercial net longs in U.S. gold futures rose to an all-time high 253,955 lots in the week to Oct. 13, up 6 percent from a week ago, data published by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed. [ID:nN16322241]
For a chart of open interest across U.S. commodities, click: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/109/CMDS_CFT...
For speculative length in U.S. commodity markets, click: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/109/CMDS_CFT...
Then make him wear a surgical mask for a week for good measure.
http://tiny.cc/financenews
This market defy logic...up 8 months in a row?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6EElqrgk4N0
(Rub a clove of garlic over hot toast - no butter, just the garlic)
Also: miso soup,
ginger & garlic,
and lemon (not all together)
+ read/watch something very very funny.
Hope you are soon feeling a whole lot better ;-)
Love & hugs
and Moo hope you get well soon
year!
CVM down hard at the open today.
Why is AAPL falling apart before earnings? Very suspect.
Getting a little bit of a late start here. My wife is out of town so it takes a little longer to do all of the really important stuff in the morning like walk the dog etc.
BEST @ 1.75.....LOTTO...can this run?
Ms brinks: Do you see a play on MOO either way (short the pop into the trend line resistance...) or the momentum to strong and best to go long.
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There is another shorter term upper trend-line which would suggest further room to run till 42. We are also on a 9 on the DeMark Sequential Sell
Often the Barron bounces are shortable if they occur after a major run. MOO is also on a 9 on the Daily TD Sequential count which indicates potential of a trend exhaustion.
There might be a sell the news event on Potash stocks after the terms of the China contract are announced (indication are $500 which is supposed to become the floor on the market).
4min earlier it had a full point and I tried to sell half and it kept bouncing above my 104.36 order price