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Long time lurker, first time poster and like many others, I find this secular profit-worshipping, money-loving and butt-kicking blog to be genuinely refreshing for my inner trader's soul!! By secular, I mean one that sticks to smart trading instead of falling into the permabear or permabull malaise that most sites have nowadays. So thank you all.
I have mooched too much for too long from you all - so in the interest of karma, I will start posting here providing some hopefully good ideas and adding to the quality here. Now I'll go back and dreamily stare at my gold profits over the last week......
I look forward to your commentary kautilya.
It looks like we are the cusp of new highs in both.
-Google has already announced that things are getting better. Apple has been ahead of sales projection. So unless we get a legendary sell the news event, the NQs are all set to rocket ahead.
-Similarly the continued weakness in the dollar is likely going to keep a bid under gold.
Now the question is what happens when commercials are positioned so wrong: Do the run to cover as disciplined traders or do the hold on to losing trades because they are "commercials"
I have noticed that historical trends are not working in this market. Whether it is the seasonal weakness in gold or strength in bonds in October, or Lowry's 90% DOWN days occurring in a bunch, the market seems to be doing the opposite. In fact when it comes to Lowry''s it seems that it is doing the reverse since the UPSIDE days are tending to occur in a bunch!
One possible explanation is that unlike normal markets where most of the market is positioned long and a big down day triggers more selling, currently many players are sitting out the rally and every time the dip is bought, more of them throw in the towels and jump in. This perhaps explains the cluster of UPSIDE days which follows any big DOWN day.
The one thing which can possibly derail this is the financials. The market brushed off Meridith Whitney today even though the balance sheets issues which led to the crash have not gone away. Hiker also alluded to breadth deteriorating in an earlier post. But as the summer of 2007 showed, market internals can remain divergent for a long time before the leaders collapse. In the current situation the breadth is showing some weakness but nothing like 2007.
NYSI has not confirmed the new highs..
3 year chart
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYSI&p=D&yr=3...
1 year chart showing the divergence
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYSI&p=D&yr=1...
for gold/silver, I'm betting and have been betting that the COTs are wrong. It's been a very painful lesson for them so far. I anticipate they will cover these short positions at not yet attained higher levels.
http://www.tradersnarrative.com/a-major-non-con...
I tend to agree with the author that it is all the dollar and not inflation. As long as the dollar sinks Gold rocks. However if and when dollar gets strength, gold may be in some trouble. Part of the reason is that dollar strength is likely going to a result of deflationary forces; a result if either risk aversion or sooner than expected rate hike.
The truly big gold play will occur when we have a weak dollar AND inflation. We may have to wait sometime for that though.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYAD&p=D&st=2...
http://screencast.com/t/JVrpOZ07M
I have to say you are amazing. As consistently bearish as other blogs have been you have been consistently bullish based on charts, and clearly now it is obvious that you are the winner. I highly doubt they will sell the news tomorrow, and as you have said, market looks to be moving higher. I wish I had the temerity as you and Taz to buy, but I have been largely in the sidelines and thats ok, I dont do this for a living :-) I hope one day to be in the same thought plane as you. Keep up the good work.
To tag along investorbad, I have been wondering what the criteria a stock needs to achieve before you enter a position. I've been redefining my list of criteria over the past few months and would love to hear from either of you. Thanks for the great site!
and it has paid off in spades.
Other than that, I look for very high or low % short float data on equity issues. I look for issues that have been over sold or over bought and take a counter position.
I love regression to the mean on the intraday time frame using 50% retracement unless I can identify the day as a trend day early enough. I also use VWAP to identify trend days or range day. From there I enter or exit along 1 and 2 sigma std devs accordingly.
I also watch pricing behavior tied to volume intraday to plot probable direction so that I might see a profitable situation.
I use gut instincts many times as well. There is more, but I'm too tired right now! Off to bed for me!
Hurlbert is singing your song...
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB12550160118...
i remember in early 08' he kept wailing that insiders weren't selling the equity market so the weakness was temporary...
Nothing new today. 1.2.1 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm, the breadth signals are way too overbought plus TRAN has yet confirmed the INDU new high, so I still think there’ll be at least 10% correction ahead.
However, no argue, if SPX breakout above its 9/23 high at 1080, the ST Model I will signal BUY and theoretically it should be blindly followed. Just under the current market conditions (mainly because SPY has too many gaps. It’ll be the 13th gap if the SPY does gap up tomorrow because of the INTC ER .), if you have no confidence in following the signal, then perhaps the conditions below are helpful in gauging if indeed the breakout is decisive:
Close > Open and Close > 1080.
At least volume > today's volume.
Both SPY and QQQQ new high.
Because of the relatively low volatility (Refer to the chart 0.0.1 Market Top/Bottom Watch, see ATR and BB Width indicators at bottom), so if the ST Model I does give buy signal tomorrow, the stop loss will be very tight, which should be around today’s low, so estimate the risks yourself accordingly.
Refer to the chart 6.3.1 Major Accumulation Day Watch, if tomorrow happens to be a Major Accumulation Day (NYUPV/NYDNV > 9) then the bullish confidence could be a little bit higher, because it could be considered as a major bottom formed by 2 very close (well, reluctantly) Major Accumulation Days.
SHORT-TERM: MAINTIAN THE CONSOLIDATION THEN PULLBACK FORECAST
Short-term, before I see a decisive breakout tomorrow, will maintain the consolidation then pullback forecast.
1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 30 min), this chart is interesting, it’s the 3rd Symmetrical Triangle breakout with the text book target at $108.66. The previous 2 triangles were so far exactly on the target. So does that mean this one will be right on the target too? By the way the bear’s hope is also here, because the 3rd time is the charm...
source: http://cobrasmarketview.blogspot.com/2009/10/10...
It might not spike--so that stupid lady with the high pay, ( dutch's gal friday) might be right, and GS is a short now! As near as I can figure, they would have to beat the street by 0.50 cents ( report at least $4.75) to get to $201 ( last years may high)