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Daily_10_30_2009
S&P…for a change in trend we do need to see lower lows and then lower highs(simple right)so look here, where we are…The PNF is poised at the 45 degree slope which if broken is the major support line of PNF charting. Too we have a potential double bottom break which is also a PNF sell signal…now review the EMA’s as well. One can clearly see that the 12 week EMA has provided much support from the march low and if violated, as well as this TL, with it turning down would be bearish. The dailies show the EMA’s with my 5 day Tickler bear crossing the 30 EMA and all EMA’s looking to turn down and trend change. We need crossovers but????? Now look at the history of support that PRICE has had on these EMA’s and these violations, if the 50EMA break holds, is VERY serious. MACD ‘s seem to be realigning as well..Weekly is the key..needless to say CAUTION is warranted my friend. I have POSITION trades in place as well as swing trades so I may look to sell the swings on a break of the 1020 and look for a rally to reposition..
http://screencast.com/t/cn5o10XAr
http://screencast.com/t/rwPol7jAaOj
http://screencast.com/t/qKcBi3yNxrj
Breadth…we know the story here so one chart….
http://screencast.com/t/9ncKrgxSkM
http://screencast.com/t/vyYoxVebJsGd
Momentum..no need to dwell either.
McClellan….A/D…you do histograms and MACD’s soooo
http://screencast.com/t/y7u2jDOthoo
http://screencast.com/t/qgxQyy631
http://screencast.com/t/0s6TvkbFDf
VIX …VXN…contrary indicator …I would caution that option premiums will increase and the ones I have will be worth more just because of this volatility increasing. ..triple top B. O on PNF, looks like a realignment of the EMA’s, Histogram and MACD , give this baby momentum
http://screencast.com/t/W0mvdOXimNT
http://screencast.com/t/d2ZmuxEhoTHd
http://screencast.com/t/qkhw3DF2X
http://screencast.com/t/aR04mVf9osfy
Last our $$$...looks rather benign through the PNF eyes…MACD and Histogram look bullish but way too early to tell if we have bottomed…
http://screencast.com/t/rB0iHbE7Ae
http://screencast.com/t/7wE1B8FFXNSa
http://screencast.com/t/n5FXHoaxMFn
This is the story as of now.
BTW, did you see any good shows in Las Vegas last month you could recommend? I'm going for a trade show next week.
The market (again) feels right to me, and it does feel less false. I hit every directional move the markets made this week (both up and down), and made only one entry error (which was an early short entry on the Wednesday sell off).
I mentioned on Thursday that I would post some charts on the weekend. So, where are we from a bearish perspective?
http://tinyurl.com/yeswwst (much anticipated primary wave 3 a possibility)
If I were to characterize where the market is, I would label this week the first phase of determining whether a P3 (primary wave 3) will begin. This is characterized by the chart trend lines from March which have been broken (and re-tested) this week on many index charts. Here is an example:
http://tinyurl.com/yhr74cx (also I have noticed that these back tests are making a good entry point)
http://tinyurl.com/yk23vay (why this pull back looks VERY different to me)
The next phase of a broader decline I would label “confirmation”. Here are some confirmation areas I am looking for on the downside, and note that breaches of these areas further justify the bearish case here.
$NASDAQ (2040 PnF signal … already very close to this)
$SPX (1010 PnF signal, also 1014.14 is 38% retrace of bear market decline)
$RUT (has already initiated PnF signal)
$INDU (has already initiated PnF signal)
http://tinyurl.com/yzl688q (first time since 2008 … this is a big deal … BUT could see a snap back to central tendency)
http://tinyurl.com/yhnnhx7 (this looks like a triple top to me … next resistance is pretty clear)
http://tinyurl.com/yg685hf (a-d lines rolling over ... thanks to PikerTrader for this idea)
http://tinyurl.com/yf7pcgo (this one too)
http://tinyurl.com/yhmn32w (this one makes the market look really negative and broken to me)
I am obviously bearish here, but I am trading the short-term waves within the broader picture to protect against whipsaws (both directions). One of my current edges is focusing on the momentum moves of individual sectors. Shorting rises into resistance is also working well. I am mostly in and out of selective overnight positions (both directions). I will remain nimble until broken technicals reveal that price and support are ready to trump the oscillators on the charts (we appear very close to that although a right shoulder may form here in a broader H&S pattern).
Finally, if I were to put on my swami turban I think that retail will be a “tell” this week. The industry has some important reporting on Thursday, and the chart pattern of the RTH is finally looking like a bearish set up after this long price move since March. I am watching this week to see if retail can add more fuel for the current downside move (and commercial real estate is another area where I am watching for fuel).
http://tinyurl.com/yhpj2co
Good luck to everyone this week.
I am open to any direction here (I am currently about 50% short and no longs) ... so for example if we bounce here then that just delays the confirmation that I am looking for ... at one point on Friday I was 100% short (but no margin) ... I will probably cover several positions at the slightest hint of green on Monday morning ... my key trading tactic here is to remain nimble until the trend changes ...
I admit that my post above reads very bearish ... but I am not advocating a plunge as much as I am suggesting that the pull back (and market tape overall) feels different ... I attempted to clue traders here into that but many were still buying pull backs when I saw the markets going down 225 to 300 points ... technicals are now beginning to validate my perceptions of this time being different ...
On the upside ... I am watching $SPX at 1040, 1050 and 1060 ... an $SPX move above 1060 and I would probably adjust my outlook a bit because a potential H&S pattern would be in play ... that could change my tactics (e.g., like going whole hog bearish) ...
Hope that addresses your question ...
http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/po...
I never come back to black sites, because of my vision. I've heard from a lot of veteran traders tell me they don't visit black sites, either--It's a fast way to kill a website! Un PRO too!
COT reports show EXTREME divergence between commercials and speculators across virtually all risk asset classes (PMs, Currencies, Equities, Treasuries). As a result the risk of a major collapse is quite high. My understanding is unlike commercials who are often hedging and hence less likely to panic, the speculators are more likely to capitulate if things move the wrong way.
The Fed has clearly signalled a change in wording. It has been perhaps priced in already but you never know. The NFP estimates for this week are quite optimistic (< 200K job loss) but if the first time jobless claims are any indication we might be in for some negative surprise again. The GS economist has been reducing NFP estimates over the past few months and has been dead on. If his (incorrect) reduction in GDP estimates is any signal he is likely to be worse then consensus on the NFPs also.
in the blink of an eye
3/24/00 -> 10/11/07 extended by 1.27 = 10/31/09
5/8/09 -> 9/23/09 extended by 1.27 = 10/31/09
the emotional, irrational 6% correction is over.
imho, imho.
my twitter nest: http://twitter.com/h1moonbeam
more H1-blab here: http://siliconinvestor.advfn.com/subject.aspx?s...
http://www.screencast.com/t/hlHsHEDJnznO
http://www.screencast.com/t/2Z57cr9Nf
http://www.screencast.com/t/MDTakib937Z3
http://www.screencast.com/t/Z52kBeWA
...../\.....
CROWS are fun to play with, but they stick in my teeth. LOL.
Us country cats living on rural roads don't see any Trick or Treaters.
I like your idea on the 1X over a longer time frame.
Wilbur Ross was picking on CRE again, but direct shorting would be the way to go, one can bleed to death picking the right moment with SRS.
hahahahaha!!!!!
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYMO&p=D&yr...
The Goddess Luna
right now and the march low.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYMO&p=D&yr...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FwjvkZzGNvM
Bats do get a bad rap unless a Yankee is holding them.
http://screencast.com/t/PAW6DNc2F
http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/bespoke/
ETFC news for those interested in trading it:
http://www.istockanalyst.com/article/viewarticl...
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYHL&p=D&yr=1...
The sudden drop of the 20 has me a bit worried here. It is very reminiscent of Sep '08 and Feb '09. The one saving grace is that we are way above the 200 (unlike previous moves) and if we get the 20/50 turned down and crossing it, it could be a long cold winter.
http://tinyurl.com/ybxmka4
PnF shows supply and demand, without the noise. UUP would need to exceed 23.04 on a closing basis to have a normal 3 box buying reversal.
Early last week when Brinkley was posting about buying OIH, I posted the PnF levels on a hourly chart. You can see that chart below the UUP chart. We teach best what we most need to learn.
I know I don't have to tell you of all people this, but posts about buying or selling of positions are only a consideration offered for further analysis and must be put within a time frame context and your own risk profile. These views stated as comments are made in the hope that they will enlighten, amuse or pose questions advancing a useful debate.
I made good money on OIH last week as a day trade. I also lost money on some short trades. No one is perfect and we are always learning. The market is dynamic and will always continue to surprise and enchant us.
Hey RB ....wake up!!
Good morning Moosters!
Looks like my shares will be called away. Might be worth buying them right back ... gotta like the odds of a trend day, eh?
Considering the way it traded on Friday and the overnight futures action, I wonder if we might get a GDX trend day as well.
Which strike did you pick?
opex. Especially if the market takes a dive too.