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1. Urz is an absolute doll (but you already knew that), and
2. personally, I'm resolving to emulate her good example by letting people know how much I enjoy and benefit from many of the posts here!
I agree, Al, and moo has also called attention to this and asked that everyone recognize good contributions by fellow blog members. And yes, Urszula is indeed special. Thanks for addressing this.
*Edit-- (Also a very crafty way to add to your own point tally.)
To be honest, for me the effect of those "liking points" is not just the warm/fuzzy/mojo enhancement already discussed, but also genuine, informative feedback that influences what sort of things I share here. If certain types of posts don't elicit comments or points, I tend to feel others don't find them interesting, and vice versa. If that works for others as well, the points actually shape what sort of things we all will and will not see here. FWIW...
I try to give points, especially on when I take an idea for study and put it on my favorites/bookmarks. I hereby resolve to continue and also do better at that.
;-)
One of the things I like about this blog is the pleasing mix of traders we have here. Recently on The Slope I listed some of the reasons I award points.
Plus, sometimes when I'm trading I don't have time to reply to a comment that I found useful/instructive/amusing/incisive/just plain interesting so I award that person a point to show them it was appreciated.
Spotlight on Apple-- will it, or won't it?
Once upon a time I owned some HERO and was up to my eyeballs in HERO, ATW, PDE, RIG, DO, NE and the like.
Base Chart: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HERO&p=D&yr=0&...
Brinkley, I don't know if others have noticed, but your posts today have been not only excellent (as always) but also pretty funny. Thank you!
AAPL, from a relative perspective, appears to have a lot more time/room.....ISRG at inflexion.....GS doubtful....with today's move, BIDU surviving......all this based on 5 yr weekly fast stochastics channels.....
could well be my 10 bagger.
Going to the Doc when not feeling well is also a psychological-boost.
I've spent most the day studying Person Pivots and the Person Proprietary Study available to TOS customers.
Here is a link to a lecture on the subject by John Person himself:
http://tinyurl.com/yzrool5
Wondering if anybody has experience using these tools, and what their thoughts are.
He has been using the pivots to time day trading entries and exits and has been doing a study on linear regression trading as well.
Here I am with the ol' basterd in 1999 (I think):
http://www.screencast.com/t/BJEmK6nXZ3Td
The monthly count is only on bar 6 of a potential 9 so he is watching the 920 area for this month to continue the monthly countdown and 987.48 for November to close above for a 7th bar to record there, monthly bar 8 or 9 would then need to exceed this months high to perfect monthly sell set up by January.
DISCLAIMER: Long since a buck or so.
I'm going to walk the pooch before things really get started. Back in a few.
http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/andrews-pitchfork...
Back from the beautiful Bay Area.....celebrated "Diwali" with old friends...missed meeting a few of you.....very sorry to hear of moo's indisposition.....speedy recovery to you, sir...!
Laptop crashed....desktop...the screen won't light up.....have been w/out a comp. at home for the last couple of weeks...... holding ISRG from 253 and AAPL from 191.....
It's great to hear from you. AAPL was good to you and it looks like ISRG will be as well. Hopefully your computer issues will be easily corrected.
Hope your computer soon behaves itself. Bad computer!
Good 2CU ;-)
I have seen many people debate whether gold is a bet on inflation or deflation. As I see it, it is neither. Gold does well when monetary and fiscal policies are poor and does poorly when they appear sensible. Gold did very well during the Great Depression when FDR debased the currency. It did well again in the money printing 1970s, but collapsed in response to Paul Volcker’s austerity. It ultimately made a bottom around 2001 when the excitement about our future budget surpluses peaked.
Prospectively, gold should do fine unless our leaders implement much greater fiscal and monetary restraint than appears likely. Of course, gold should do very well if there is a sovereign debt default or currency crisis.
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=pot&ty=c&ta=1&p=d
CELG, GPRO, AMLN, LIFE
In the meantime, I want to urge caution up here. There are quite a few areas beginning to show signs of exhaustion, and I will be watching this carefully. Financials are under pressure and XLF still has a bearish island reversal in place that I'm keeping an eye on. Potential momentum long plays include BIDU, CME, MGM, ISRG, MA, WCRX, HGSI, POT, ASIA, SOHU. I also suspect we may start to see more intraday short opportunities before long, but be careful getting bearish too soon. I am anticipating a pullback to get underway before long-- which at this point I continue to see as corrective in nature, and that will likely present a new buying opportunity.
MGM had some news this morning which is making the stock jump. No position for me yet but might buy on a pullback. If there is one.
The first is INET, the second is LOCM...both are STRICTLY technical buys...but I often do minor due diligence on my tickers and noticed that these are both pure web plays. On a side note, is Moo feeling better? I sent a couple of emails last week to talk about the blogroll, never heard back.
http://tinyurl.com/yhh2fdn
We are at the top side of the daily channel.. We have been in this channel for 5+ months... Looks like it wants to break higher overnight, but I am a bit suspect... we have housing starts and PPI coming out on Tues 5:30 am est..so that could be a moving event in either direction. if we should break out to the topside I see the next fib level at $1.5245 as the next target.... Lots of support from different views at the bottom of the channel.
Great short entry at this area..risk to reward is phenomenal.. Would like to see it pull away a little before I jump in with both feet...but I did take a small sized short up here with a tight stop.
I also wanted to note that the /ES is not that strong up here in relation to the /NQ's.... Really feels tired up here and due for a rest/consolidation...maybe even a pullback?
I would be careful trying new longs up here.....
Have a great night and I hope Mr. Moo is starting to feel better.
Looks like more strength in the US overnight. That should push up the Nikkei and ASX today. They wanted to be a bit weaker yesterday but that rally in Shanghai lifted all boats.
On another note, yesterday looks to have been a good day to add to long USD/JPY. It started to sniff the 21ema on the daily but didn't even get close before reversing. Equity charts won't look compelling to me until we at least get a slight test of these breakouts. Good luck all.
TNA - Small position in AH after AAPL earnings. I know QLD may have been a better instrument but I know TNA & TZA better.
AAPL - A small position in a bullish call spread bought earlier AM. Aim to get out tomorrow for a double - Thanks Anna.
I think GOLD is an ADR so drop in USD provides an additional kicker.
Did you end up messing around with options on HGSI?
My master got a contract to start a job tomorrow, and I don't know how to log on, so no more trading until next week.
Meow is me.
Compare late July and early August , GBPUSD just shot up 4%, 600 over pips, 5 days consecutively up.
Also reaching our RL 100% level that we mentioned last week.
Hope you can profit well from this trade.
Ready to exit SRZ @ 5.54.....will make me even.....
In that light what is the proper trading vehicle to trade oil. So as I don't have to find a big tank to put it in. Ha!
Things to know about, such as contango and backwardation?
Places to learn about oil trading.
Is this site good?: http://www.theoildrum.com/
Or this one? : http://www.worldenergysource.com/
Thanks in advance.
brinkley - I like your oil chart and idea about retest of the line on top. A classic. Let's see how it plays out. I use this idea every day on the /ES.
Good reminder by Brinkley about earnings ... this week really ramps up on the # of companies reporting ...
I am standing aside so far today ... I am watching the trio of the $CYC, $NYA, and A/D ratio line on a 10 nimute chart ... so far it looks like prices will hold up today on this lighter volume ... even stocks like CIT are holding up on news events ...
Congratulations to anyone who got into oil last week ... as long as the USD stays suppressed it does not look done on its run ...
Later.
EDIT: starting a position in VXX, long 500 @ 43.36
Loads of opportunities unfolding, Folks. For those few who bristle at making a bullish case or calls at these levels, the proof has been in the pudding, so to speak. And to clarify-- being bullish on the market does not have to equate to being bullish on the economy. It's just a pragmatic position that optimally exploits a trader's opportunistic mindset.
Off the morning watchlist (which I never got around to completing): POT +$5.28, ISRG + $3.01, CME + $2.30, JOYG + $2.14, CAT + $2.25, TEX + 0.82, and ASIA and MGM idling for now.
Other stocks I've been swinging that are doing very well today and are not listed above include AGU, ATI, ATPG, HES, OIH, SOHU, SINA, HGSI, RMBS, DO, YGE and TSL. GMXR took a hit on news, but the daily chart still looks ok to me, my precious metals are consolidating near the unchanged mark, and PALM, WCRX, DNDN, RMBS, AMLN, CRZO, and BCRX aren't doing a whole lot. I also added BIDU this morning, am watching MA, and have been in and out of EBIX. Stops in place on all.
Regarding SOHU, I'll be interested to learn what you see in the chart...in one sense, it's been going sideways since June, which takes skill in this market. Also, today's 7+% jump was on news of.....being upgraded to neutral by one analyst? Not arguing, just expressing curiosity about what you saw, because I'd like to add whatever it was to my toolbox.
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=joez
A pair of jeans in motion tends to stay in motion...
How was your weekend?
I didn't do anything exciting. Read, slept, walked.
How about you?
Of course holding overnight is another thing....lol. Cheers!
I don't hold much through earnings-- occasionally when I feel very strongly about a chart, but even then it would almost always be a partial position. Some of my IRA stuff might be an exception.
Going to add DRV I think.....
Looking for OIH in the 130's and DTO to hit 60.30
Looking for VXX in the low 43's-42's
S&P to that 1108 area
So far we've filled the Friday gap and IWM is lagging.
I always wanted to go to a casino.
MGM at $11.88, stop limit $11.59.
Fall Fest '09 was pretty darn good... we had Abita Amber (our big LA
microbrew) on keg this year with some chickens, burgers and hot
dogs... also had a hot dog eatin' contest but I did not participate
months.... was delish
Fed Chairman Bernanke: US Needs to Cut Deficit, Asia Seeing Strong Recovery
NVAX @ 3.82...
...because I want to have my hook in the water and it's pulled back to where I think it might find support...
days, it is known as an "island cluster."
http://www.cnbc.com/id/33381140
EDIT: which just now breaking down to a longer time frame
Rexahn Pharma Sells Shares In Direct Offering At 82c/Shr 10/19 12:17 PM
Stock goes to 1.06 on news....NOW they come out with offering?
Go through some of his older articles on how he mentally takes on trading:
http://fearandgreedtrader.blogspot.com/
I was watching sportscenter last night and Trent Dilfer said something pretty cool about player mentality when they are going through a losing season, coaching changes, head coaching questions, etc. He said players start to FEAR losing and so they play with fear and can't perform. They should be playing based on their natural talent and letting things fly. Overcoming FEAR is the #1 issue I think we all have once we've suffered losses. Losing money is emotional. Trading is 100% you, there are no excuses, and that's why I love it.
Thanks Dutch. +1
http://tiny.cc/financenews
same ol same ol
AAPL is a great buy based on this
http://www.traderslog.com/trading-rules.htm
Best Regards
How true, especially if the trade goes against you. So easy to be overly patient and stubborn and wrong. It's funny how that is so much human nature. If something works instantly it's hard to believe. If something doesn't work it's hard to believe it's not working.
Uniscource Energy CEO Paul Bonavia was on Bloomy this weekend, they are buying solar power units in Tucson, right where GS has roots established.
Actually it's a good proxy for energy, and has some recent buying.
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=xlu
http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-mf...
(both look pretty good on the daily)
http://www.cnbc.com/id/33381926
Why do you choose a 220 day EMA?
thanks...
Gap fill at $45. Bands are real tight.
Stochastics @ 14.91 on the 10 minute. Good luck.
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=ros
I just asked for a different opinion because I didn't want to miss anything obviously bearish....
thank you
I'm biting my hind quarters just thinking about it.
I added 4000 DTO at 60.30.
I'm watching 14.43 on UCO to go short oil with my real money. Watching it closely, I need to see a serious move down to go short with real money. Stepping in front of a commodity bull train is ugly if you're wrong. We saw that March 2008.
OIH also has hit 9 on the DeMark TD Sequential Daily and kissing upper end of the 3 month channel. Initial target at 20ema 30 min currently near 129.30. 70c stop loss.
Scaled in 130.xx since not expecting an EOD run today. Stops in.
I bought last week @ 19.55 and am trying to figure out whether and when I want to buy more.
The options are still carrying a huge premium. You could collect more than four bucks a share just selling the front-month 16/25 strangle, though you'd be on the hook if it tanked and have your gains capped if it explodes.
Myself, I've 2/3rds of my lot covered with NOV25 calls. Ideally, it will run to 24.99 through OPEX, then explode. ;-)
Your ideal scenario is for the explosion after OpEx, as in after Nov 20?
Ideally, since I sold 25 calls against a long stock position, the stock will rally but not exceed the strike price before expiration. I don't really expect that to happen, though. I was mostly hoping to lower my cost basis (by more than two bucks, as it happened) while preserving significant upside potential. I also have HGSI in my IRA, purchased in the mid-18s but not covered by calls (I don't trade options in my IRA). FWIW.
Reporting before the bell tomorrow: BK, BIIB, BLK, EAT, CAT, COH, KO, JEF, LMT, EDU, OXPS, BTU, PFE, DGX, UAUA. UTX, UNH
*This is not a complete list. Just some notables. Please make sure you know when the company of any stock you are holding reports and plan accordingly. You would be amazed at how many traders every earnings season get caught unprepared.
Buy @ average price 8.87, sold @ 8.92.
I have a question about this issue I'll ask in a future post...
JAZZ, both today and Friday, exploded on high volume only to give it all back. What does this mean?
I'm really not the paranoid type, but my only explanation is that it's a deliberate maneuver on the part of someone who wants to unload shares. That is, in a thinly traded stock it makes sense for sellers to try to initiate a stampede into the stock, so paradoxically they buy a lot and then sell even more into the ensuing rally. Market makers, "manipulators", whoever... Does this seem possible or likely, or should I consider myself somewhat paranoid???
Certainly is stair stepping since June on that first pump. Maybe it's just people like you. You bet on a break out, vol starts trailing off on the pump and you take profit. It sluffs off, hits another price point, $$$ starts to average in.
I had lots of help from the other traders on that site--It's too bad the guy started using comment moderation. It destroyed the comment section. it was a great comment site. (350 comments a day) Every trade posted was a winner +100%, 100% of the time.
Now the site is dead--take a look!
http://www.beanieville.blogspot.com/
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I4U6T_BB1N8&feat...
Of course, my personal record on knife-catching still advises prudence over trying to hit that 50-foot-square of air near the highway embankment at 100 MPH, it must be said. :-)
ISRG earnings Tuesday I think, buy the NOV 310 call and the 220 puts—one or the other should go 900% higher on a $40 move by ISRG
The other way to play earnings on ISRG is simply to do what brinkley did, just hop on a few days ahead ( subject to broad market going in your favour ) you can normally pick up the meat of the i.e. it's moved 254 -> 268 in 2 days? ...
http://www.businessinsider.com/david-einhorn-at...
I'm just not comfortable with all the breakouts I see. Historically, I don't
trade well when I'm not "feeling" it so I will just sit out for a bit or
until we get at least a little retest of the break.
Speaking of, I'm feeling it with $/Yen. Will see if it can stay above that
21ema it is testing again today. For a large, longer term trade, I like my
position so far.
Good luck to you guys.
DRV @ 18.95....from yesterday....
SRZ @ 5.58....running....
EDIT...Left SRZ @ 5.81......
A few quick trades. Much better start than yesterday.
Keep thinking of moo.
Cool trading, everyone