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http://screencast.com/t/4QZiTrzm9
http://screencast.com/t/a5Z7V1Qa
Finance…finance BPI contains much more than Banks..Banks are one of the weakest sectors as well
http://screencast.com/t/XykEscovnCky
BPI of BANKS…this contains all types of banks world wide
http://screencast.com/t/ykQGTl8cE
BKX
http://screencast.com/t/ArgmnNT1
http://screencast.com/t/0aktUo7ydja
XLF..daily..lower highs and lows…island with inside day…bear cross on MACD(still above 0)price on 50EMA support…no EMA bear crossovers yet …Butttttt
http://screencast.com/t/zDbdwBrAQjCv
http://screencast.com/t/kM2lQiF3DPK
weekly…ascending triangle(Bear wedge)
http://screencast.com/t/U4i3lpMv
RIFIN…time to go at it…
http://screencast.com/t/EJop6Bk4HcAM
http://screencast.com/t/woNBB2Tn
KRE
http://screencast.com/t/PRkSBUsRivVE
http://screencast.com/t/Bj0e9Ub7sLx
FAZ/FAS….whoops on the FAS
http://screencast.com/t/uKYrtaz9fW
http://screencast.com/t/06sehu83
Long FAZ...will add on further downward pressur on index...have stop at a profit level
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$XAU&p=D&yr=20...
http://tinyurl.com/ykzw6j4
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BIDU&p=W&yr=4&...
(I have to be away from trading today...lotta non-market stuff to attend to...)
EDIT...small position @ 1.37.....
http://screencast.com/t/vK6nGawpIvq
I'd sure like to see a clearly defined direction soon.
the uptrend has not yet reversed
out @ 1084.25, +5 = ES hit Friday's pivot... I'm done for today!
One question though - re the USD, when you said the falling wedge which is usually bullish...I thought that in order for that to be a true falling wedge it must follow a rising trend. If not, as in this case, it is not a bullish falling wedge.
Sector analysis is always appreciated and is a welcome relief from the over-analyzed SPX.
Angels can fly because they take themselves lightly.
Keep laughing my friend. Good luck next week.
For a person who missed this last little pop, these charts are starting to at least look more interesting. It may be time to start mapping out some trades. Good luck everyone.
Every dip has been bought so far and when we see that change we go short. Until then I definitely wouldn't be selling big here. If you feel like you need to be short then step into it. "When you are invited to the biggest dance of the year; you dance with who brought ya."
That said, I sure wouldn't be loading up the truck to buy either but my style is different. I don't need to be IN THE MARKET everyday. I usually make 3 big trades a year and I go through periods of 6 mos or more with no large positions and just playing the charts with 10%-20% of capital. My largest position to date is long USD/JPY for a couple of weeks now. I hedged this morning @ ~92 and will see what happens today and tomorrow.
have been, a confessed bull.
If you are a bull then congratulations, you are still in the driver's seat. IMO.
;)
I have heard from more than one person claiming that the market will roll over as $NYSI does not confirm the rally that began in Oct 2. So is the market wrong or is the indicator wrong? Go figure.
:):):)
If I could make one small point and this is not a jab at you (like you don't get enough love around here) but just for a "different" thought for some new traders to chew on.
I know you haven't really called it out in your analysis but it's on your chart so I thought I'd bring it up for discussion. I have to disagree with how many traders are comparing the recent volume on equities in general (XLF included) to Oct '08-Mar '09. In my mind, that was a "different" time. It's the same thing with the VIX. For some traders to expect that we go back to the 80s or even the 60s is wishful thinking if you ask me. I'd much rather them compare it to the historical average (which means it is still slightly elevated)
Anyway, I know you aren't "selling" that story but I just wanted to bring up for discussion. Thanks.
Good luck to everyone today.
Also, I will not be active today trading as I have a meeting this morning. Perhaps this afternoon I will be more active.
Good Trading To All.
entered into ES long @ 1079.25
http://acrossthecurve.com/?p=9619
Excellent bond related blog typically with multiple intraday posts
/ES hourly chart update...trading in a range/channel... Looking for breakout.
http://tinyurl.com/yfk53xo
I would add that here is one reason for the pop up this morning ... http://tinyurl.com/yzk4ca3 (I posted this chart on the weekend)
I'm looking for an opportunity to get into TZA and SRS if we get another series of high $TICK's.
Did Disqus start working better for you this afternoon?
I was thinking about the pop-up you got that asked to "kill or wait" and that almost sounds like something that would be generated from a virus protection software. Is it possible you were being asked whether you wanted it to kill or wait regarding some threat that your software found? You may want to open up your virus scan software and see if there may be a warning or something.
checked the virus scan and nothing was there but will try again just
in case.
TZA - Bought some at $11.51. Will buy more around $11.4 if it gets there. tight stop.
ALD @ 3.47....need a run....damn DISQUS
FYI update from Kemal_1 at SOH:
Be careful here. EUR/USD broke down from a wedge a few minutes ago. A backtest may still have to occur.
My best reading regarding SPX is that a short term top formed last Wednesday at 1101 at that the index is in an X wave. That is a corrective wave allowing another run up later. I don't see P3 being 'active' already.
I will put up charts later. SPX will almost certainly break 1070 this week.
I am holding Gold calls.
I just wanted to remind you these PnF numbers have been pretty much spot on lately. They are as PLAYABALE as 2SW's RLs. The boxes have to be analyzed to determine the probabilities/frequencies. Or you can buy them along with more from retracementlevels.com.
So far today achieved the 20 SMA (1070.03) and the hourly PnF potential support/resistance level 1069, plus or minus 0.0015%.
REPOST OF MY POST TO YOU ON FRIDAY, BEST OF LUCK TO YOU.
Hi Shift, fwiw I've noticed the PnF hourly and daily support and resistance levels, gap zones and SMAs have been more important areas to watch for change or continuation of price direction and or momentum than the trend lines. Though I do watch trend lines very closely, of late I noticed some of the others seem to have more significance.
I've been mentioning 1093, plus or minus 0.005%, for quite awhile as PnF daily major potential support/resistance level. Its gotten into or slightly above that level 5 times in the last 8 trading days, but hasn't been able to hold it. In the meantime the gap from Oct 14 filled. Below that is the gap from Oct. 8, 1057-1058 zone. Hourly PnF potential support/resistance levels are at 1076 and 1069, plus or minus 0.0015%.
EDIT...in @ 3.37.....
YRCW...out @ 3.51....entered @ 3.37.....scalp....
EDIT....YRCW....OUT @ 4.11.....nice.....
http://tinyurl.com/yhjft7c /ES Hourly....
http://tinyurl.com/ylg57a8 EUR/USD Daily
The /ES has broken convincingly below its Channel.... and The EUR/USD looks to have topped out just above its 6 month channel.... I see a higher probabilty of more downside pressure ahead.. However, The panic selling this AM was good enought for me to take profits on.... It sure did seem like we may have had some short term Capitulation. Good resistance on the $DXY at $76..
Trade well
Done for the day....I think....
YRCW @ 3.86.....
http://i34.tinypic.com/25ps7d0.jpg
PCX @ 11.04......
TZA - Got shaken out @ $12.12 due to trailing-stop! Likely would have got more by 1% or so with a 'better' stop
RSI(7) for GDX is now well below 30, and it will be interesting, to say the least, to note at which price it breaks back above that line.
Days like this are the reason I have insurance puts, but I would have been better off lightening up on the PMs on Friday, when I closed the last of the OIH calls, since the case for the pullback was the same for both.
mouth is first. hahahaha)
You know you've got a good trade on when you are expecting weakness and you
try to hedge and IT gets stopped out. I will be looking to turn some of that
profit into a PM trade soon enough.
http://tinyurl.com/ylbjrmv
on the upside I am watching $SPX 1071, 1077 (VWAP) and 1085/6 areas ...
Date ET Release Briefing.comConsensusPrior
Oct 27 09:00 CS Home Price Index Aug-13.0% -11.90% -13.30%
Oct 27 09:00 Consumer Confidence Oct52.6 53.5 53.1
Gap support at $SPX at 1060.03, gap fill at 1057.58-1058 zone.
Kelam_1 SOH EOD FYI:
Nice profits, Tim. Congratulations.
Here are some of the promised charts. The short term EUR/USD chart shows that after reaching a new high this morning, the big wedge was decisively broken. Right now, positive divergences on 60 and 15min charts suggest that a transient turn around is imminent.
http://tinyurl.com/yfq2e73
On a larger time frame (6 months), one can see that the EUR completed 5 waves up from a (b) wave low. Potentially, today's correction marks the beginning of a corrective X wave, which allows for a resetting of the overbought indicators.
http://tinyurl.com/ylc2d3g
The X wave may last well into next week.
Finally, the GS commodities index shows that the current weakness may be part of a retest of a triangle break out. If that view is true, we should see a strong move up sometimes next week.Both gold and oil should profit.
http://tinyurl.com/ylskjxb
Good luck.
Just 2 cents from someone who learned the lesson the hard way.
SPY looking like they may go for a quick gap fill soon at 106 - maybe even push a 104 but i think that'll be it. i really don't think there will be much more so going to go long ( weds/thurs ) in anticipation of the huge auction in a few days..it's the biggest one yet and alot of indicators i have are showing a rapid drop int he overbought conditions - i think one more push is possible and feels like they're sucking the bears in for another round of beatings - they can move the SPY 20-30 points with that amount of $ no problems. ...after that..who knows, could push onto 1200 for xmas or roll over and head to 900s..will have to see.
the name is tricky, so will see
it would not surprise me to even see $370 to 369 tonight, before 8pm eastern time
and btw, the BIDU buy near $100 was about as much a no-brainer as can be claimed by a chart trader
367 has some retracement appeal
sadly i don't think the profits will be that great either way due to the hedging but i maybe able to bail on those and claw back some time premiu - anyway can't complain, better than losing a whole wack..
Market reaching some interesting levels tomorrow/weds...
Let us see if there is any follow thru in Asia. I think some important econ numbers are coming out in Australia but I must check.
On to the trade. I got stopped out of my hedge on the long USD/JPY. This trade just keeps going and going without taking a breather. We are 400+ pips off the low and almost 300 pips positive on this trade. No point in letting up now! LOL.
I was just reading through some of the info available via the links on the right side of the page and noticed that the link to Charts and Coffee is not taking you to the active site. He moved to a different site and the link here hasn't been updated.
I am back from my Trip.. Did I miss anything??
Back test taking place on several commodity charts ($CRB example) … http://tinyurl.com/yzhf8y8
BIDU after hours (wow!) ... I understand a blog recommended going long on this stock yesterday (ouch!)
How do you see the action today? AMZN did not care about the broad market sell-off today. It is trading down AH after BIDU. Do you see a very short term top in? Where do you suggest that we cover short exposure (120 ish? S1 is 120.41)
Interestingly IV in AMZN is trending higher, suggesting continued expectations of explosive moves. On Friday the Puts were trading at higher IV. Today it was the calls.
I had a bad day today. Entered the wrong order when I was trying to close an option spread near market open and then to my horror saw the stock move exactly as I had thought it would but with double the exposure in the wrong side than I had planned! The market moved quicker than I could react; then the collapse of the rest of the market kept the hope alive only to see AMZN go through my original target price of 125. Some very basic trading execution errors exacerbated by a reluctance to take a loss thanks to what the broad market was doing....
Broken neckline although the H/S is a little funky. Either way support was broken last night. A bit of a bounce to try and retest today but not much action. Keep an eye on it.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FXA&p=60&yr=0&...
http://siliconinvestor.advfn.com/readmsg.aspx?m...
Happy Trading.