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Needless to say, many stops on my long positions got hit, which is as it should be. Most took me out with some of the day's gains preserved, but obviously off the highs. The first thing I do when an intraday reversal starts to threaten, is usually to go long the inverse ETFs quickly. Then I can tend to other existing positions and potentially initiate a few new ones. I am now out of many longs and am newly long in SRS, SKF, and QID. I posted earlier that there was no shortage of sell pressure and while the battle at resistance was inevitable, the victor was yet to be determined. I think we have a clear winner on the day, and potentially the start of a more significant correction-- but we'll have to see if we get any follow-through tomorrow. Certainly the conviction and oomph behind the sell-off trumps that behind recent rallies, which have been weakening over the past couple of weeks (at least).
Went ULBI @ 4.32 boss....it's a knife thing......when you get time....your thoughts?
What about a nice TZA bath? It's even an anagram for your nickname.
As for ULBI-- I imagine that you already know my thoughts, Tazz-- and if you don't, you don't want to.
I also like that we finally got a -1200 tick and several in the -1000 range. Bam bam bam. That is real selling. VXX also printed 2 points and got a little excited (today again was a new year low).
My Yearly S&P Chart:
http://www.gamingthemarket.com/wp-content/uploa...
Bank Index finally cracked:
http://www.gamingthemarket.com/wp-content/uploa...
XLF closed right at that fib, wtg XLF:
http://www.gamingthemarket.com/wp-content/uploa...
I'll be posting the link to your post here on a couple of other boards so a maximum number of people can see it.
Thanks guys.
I especially like the KBW chart.
Ken Heebner of CGMFX has been green the past 2 days and money centers have been his focus, so he's hedged somehow here near term.
My best day this month ;-)
An okay day is a good day because green is much better than red.
Have you called on Zeus at all?
after a teeny tiny catnap ;-)
I hope you have fewer interruptions tomorrow, DG.
Glad you had those shorts/puts today.
...set personal record for number of positions held (and I can't day trade!) (lots of small long positions, mostly gone now)...
...set another record for stupidest order entry error (went long when intending to go short)...
...switched from net long to fully hedged in record time...
...and after all that...closed the day with the account within 49 cents of yesterday's close!
So, the room was filling with smoke not because of spinning wheels but because frustration makes smoke come out of my ears like in the cartoons...
Both sides are owned by the banking industry with out a doubt. Obama's administration will do nothing just like Clinton and Bush.
There are still unreal amounts of these derivatives (500T plus??!!)out there ready to explode...Just need a black swan event to tip them over. The first wave crushed firms that had been around for 100 plus years and had survived the Great Depression, world wars, etc. (Lehman, Bear). These firms were swatted like little flies by this stuff.
My own personal philosophy is very close to the libertarian view point, but after watching this and thinking through the crisis I'm having major doubts.
Brooksley Born is an great American hero who tried her hardest to protect us from the mess that she knew this would and ultimately did cause. I have a ton of respect for her.
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/warning...
The regulated U.S. stock market is roughly 2% of the size of the unregulated global derivatives market. On one hand the Fed has to print money until the end of days, and on the other roughly 75% of the world’s total liquidity is trading swaps on the rates.
http://www.gamingthemarket.com/not-too-big-to-s...
"The Geithner CCP proposal strikes me as mandating a casino where the seventeen dealers at the seventeen tables own the casino, control credit, control the odds, control the deal and can determine who wins and loses. If your only choice is to go from one rigged dealer-owned table to another rigged dealer-owned table run under common management, that isn’t much of a choice." -RGE Monitor’s London Banker
http://www.gamingthemarket.com/geithners-silent...
"Timothy F. Geithner took the helm of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in 2003. High on Mr. Geithner’s to-do list was understanding and monitoring the $26 trillion credit derivatives market — twice the size of the United States economy — the fastest-growing financial market there is."
He said everything was fine and risk was manageable. This was five years before Lehman and Bear collapsed. Good job Timmy!
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Well, I've spent more time under my desk than working at it tonight, still trying to diagnose my tech issues. However, I have promised a look at stop placement, so here you go-- but we'll have to examine them in a few stages due to my time constraints.
I went back through today's trades and have pulled up and illustrated my GMCR long scalp as an example of a successful "quick" trade with my stop placement and rationale behind it. On this one, I knew from initiation that it was going to be strictly a scalp-- meaning I knew I didn't want to hold it overnight, and I didn't trust the market enough here to give it a chance to get moody and change its mind. Stops were placed at short-term support levels, as shown. As you can also see, I opted to sell into the volatility as the stock made a nice move, rather than give it much time and room to back up and consolidate (or potentially reverse). Still, the stop would have kept the trade above break-even and out of trouble if I needed to be dealing with other trades at the time. This one worked well, with a quick gain of $1.80.
http://screencast.com/t/cyyWH8hCE13
I'll illustrate another example tomorrow. Let me know if this is helpful-- or how it could be more so.
Thousands of Swedes have been vaccinated so far and the reports of side effects are "flooding in" to The Swedish Institute for Infectious Disease Control (SMI). Annika Linde: "It is obviously so that the vaccine against the swine flu results in more side effects than the normal flu vaccines. That is because the swine flu vaccine contains adjuvants, shark liver oil, which triggers the immune defense to respond. That also results in that the protection against the virus becomes better."
Hi everyone.
Bearish Key Reversal day confirmed by a distinctively negative volume profile.
Today is the day at the very least to use end of day/after hours to apply stops on your longs or to have written premium if you are a long term investor. If you are trend trading bearish key reversal days even in bullish trends are purported by some to have high probability (with confirmation) to be days to write premium, sell or better yet short to enhance overall gain as compared to buy and hold.
The bearish key reversal in September gave us a quick 60 point pullback to the 50SMA.
The first downside objective is an open gap from 10/14 in the 1073-1075 zone. Below that the current 20 SMA of 1065.83 has huge volume-price profile, which could looks either supportive or distributive, we shall see. Just below is an open gap from 10/08 at 1057.58. It could bounce to back test the short term uptrend line, or if it loses that support area its likely to test the current 50SMA in a hurry at 1043.21 with an open gap at 1042.58. On the last key reversal it pulled back to a very weak looking volume-price profile and then pushed to new rally highs. That key reversal pullback was less than the pullback in June and the 50SMA had the low price-volume profile, so the return to break highs shows the strength of the buyers cum bankers with tarp monies and momo money. imho, the economic hope is more supportive of these prices than reality.
The major daily PNF support/resistance of 1093, plus or minus 0.005% was lost today on increasing volume and the hourly volume was ugly. They couldn’t find the exits fast enough when there was no follow through and the handwriting of the bearish key reversal was on the wall. The next major daily PNF support/resistance is 1039, plus or minus 0.005%. Notice how close it is to the 50 SMA. Below that the next major daily PNF level is 988, plus or minus .005% and that has a much higher going long probability on price-volume profile than 1039. But the 50SMA has been a thing of beauty for the longs on this rally off the lows of March, including the bear traps and false crossover SMA signals during the June and July pullback.
Good luck everyone. Sorry I have little time to follow and post here. I make more money on my day job when I put the time and energy in. But I miss you all. Respect those PNF and gap numbers. Most of the time when your bet loses the direction of those numbers, it’s a good time to reverse your position. I posted those numbers on the last pullback and did well with the shorts on the pullback to the 50 SMA at the Flikr site, though I didn’t completely cover til the end of the day close above 1039. And I didn’t reverse my position as it back tested the short term down trend line and I was not comfortable going long at those levels. I’m now back to a position trade 50% short via SDS at $SPX 1098.40.
Due to the decay over the longer term with SDS, I use the $SPX and SPY for charting, but trade short term swings with SDS.
On the 60 Min SPY:
Selling pressure indicated and showing signs of weakness, signaled with the downward sloping Macd and the stochastic with divergences.
Vix powered through the downtrend channel line with a huge bar in the last hour.
On the Daily SPY:
Macd is falling but not yet below 0. On Balance Volume downsloping divergence. Both the summation index and the bullish percents showing signs of tipping and point to caution for the continuation of the rally.
Good luck with it.
Long TZA from last week (10.95) based on increasingly shaky breadth measures. This is mostly a hedge so that I don't end up getting shaken out of longs (mostly oil and PMs) and will be ready to buy more when the time is right.
I'm inclined to just hold the TZA with wide stops until we hit some oversold situation, 50-DMA on $SPX, oversold CCI, etc.
I do have an eye peeled for the long-equities/short-dollar correlation to start coming apart. I'm looking at LQD as a tell going forward as well. It holds a lot of debt from banks. If we see more rough sledding here, I have an idea that continuation of the bull market will be in jeopardy of rolling over.
Listen. Wait and see.
know if you do.
Does not show the spread directly. IT is showing tightening though the yields were higher.
http://acrossthecurve.com/ of course has extensive posts on the Bond Market
He had plenty of shoes to sniff.
Flat/double tops produce market drops ( E-Mini Russell Dec. bar chart) and Dow transports also.
S & P E-Mini (a following index, has not complied and is staying in its primary but broke its secondary parallel channel. Dow transports indicator RSI showing downside, and slow stochastic also.
Oscar says pullback of 2-3 days and then buyers come back, somewhere around 1045.
Not keen on buying dips here, just one limit order on STO at $24.47.
Upside looks limited, unless dollar rallies.
PFE GLD and BLDP in the mix too.
Such a hurry for work today, kitty was locked in the closet. No accidents happened and he ate heartily. Kemal over at slope writes well, the dollar is the pulse of the market.
Now that reminded me of October 2008. Just a quick glance at the charts and it looks like we are getting to a point where I can at least take a position one way or another.
Anyway, I said to myself (and on a blog somewhere) that if we closed above 91 on USD/JPY I would consider it a good day. We got close but a bit of divergence on that late move (usually equities fall/usd rise) sealed our fate below it. At this point it doesn't look like anything major as we are still above all the mov avg's. However, keep an eye out for weakness and a chance to buy. I think we will chop around here for the next two days.
http://www.screencast.com/users/springheel_jack...
I've updated my rally patterns chart and updated it with a view of where we have closed in a tight range more than three times in a row in the rally so far.
Every significant rally top since the top in June has been marked by more than three consecutive closes in a tight range. Only one bottom was the same though, which was the one in July.
Arguably, we have still closed within the latest range today. If we break through 1075, then we could well see a drop to the main rally trendline and bear wedge lower channel at slightly over 1050.
I don't think we've topped yet, but if we break through that level, it will look likely that we have, and if we then break through the lower channel of the Broadening Ascending Wedge Top Pattern, then it would seem very likely that the rally has finished.
If we are to make significant downwards progress though, we will need to see some significant rise in USD. At the close today USD was still down from this morning, and Gold, Oil, EURUSD & GBPUSD were all still well up on the open. SPX was down, but there were no major breaks outside equities that I could see.
Man..I'm going to have to get an account where I can post picture responses.
You can get a free account at screencast for sharing charts.
NYSI is below September lows
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYSI&p=D&yr=0...
RUT:SPX now hugging lower Keltner channel; notice continuing strength in AUD:JPY on the same chart
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$RUT:$SPX&p=D&...
The relative weakness in RUT is suggesting that the Dollar weakness is finally being reflected in valuations. The small caps are more dependent on domestic economy and do not benefit as much from the weak dollar as the large caps. So the role of RUT as a measure of risk-appetite will be less relevant.
OTOH other risk appetite indicators like AUD:JPY, Oil etc. continue to rise. It seems that the primary support holding up the broad market indices is the weak dollar and the associated strength in oil, energy and commodities. Semiconductors and financials are leading the market down. If the dollar strengthens then watch out for a more significant broad market correction.
"Hello Moo?....it's TAZ"
"Yes TAZ what can I do for you?"
"Just checking in BD...how are you?"
"I told you two hours ago TAZ...I am trying to rest"
"Just thought you might have some beauties for the BLOG"
"TAZ I told you yesterday...I can't do that"
"Probably make it easy on you dog...you know...brothers and all"
"Hello...Moo....Moo are you there?"
Damn phone lost connection.....DRV moving nice.....
I present to you
The One and Only,
TAZMAN!
(Have booked my ticket)
Hope moo is feasting on garlic toast & the Marx Bros/those v funny episodes of *Taxi* with Andy Kaufman as Latka
+ and getting plenty of rest
Moo is recovering but still quite under the weather. I'm not sure about the Marx Brothers, but I know he enjoyed an old Rin Tin Tin episode with his morning kibble today. ; )
Best ticket I could get was first thing on the 28th. My Mama assures me she will survive till then.
(Must say she sounded 33.3% better upon learning I had my ticket.)
We will miss you greatly, but it's good that you're going to see your mom. I hope she feels better soon.
I will check in @ the bulldog when I can.
I will
got stopped out of several short positions (I tightened my stops yesterday and there have been no actual losers because of that) ... however I have already re-entered quite a few because the $TRAN and $RUT have not confirmed the rally with higher highs ... my BAC position (options and stock) continues to be a gainer for me ...
while the $CYC and $NYA provide a good thermometer for market prices, they generally appear "pinned" here ... but I think that the markets will generally hold up as long as oil futures stay up (e.g., they are typically run up on EIA news days) ... weaker areas like small cap's are holding less of their morning gains ... overall with the USD going even lower today, the decision to run the market higher is firmly in bull's hands (it is all about the USD here ... imo) ...
I have to admit after today that earnings may provide enough distractions to prevent the market from going too far in either direction ... market futures (both last night and this morning) suggested selling before the open ... head fake!
It's been all about the $USD for a long while now, IMO. I'm long and having a very nice day (oils, precious metals, MA, FSLR, BIDU, CME, & miscellaneous odds and ends), but have been getting progressively lighter on some of the overnight holds. Watching to see if we get a close above 1100 today.
having some work done on the home tomorrow (weatherized windows on the front) ... so I wanted some extra rest because the crew is getting here rather early ...
bulls need to break that upper channel line ... not sure that they can do that on commodities alone but they are getting some help from tech earnings ...
http://www.screencast.com/users/springheel_jack...
The first bounce point is the main rally trendline at 1055, though there seems some confusion over where this is. I put it at 1055, kemal_1 agrees, but I have seen this put at 1035 and 1045 as well overnight. This would be the least satisfactory bounce point as it would leave too much doubt over whether the rally was indeed over & wouldn't be setting up another termination pattern that I could see.
The second bounce point is the lower channel of the Broadening Ascending Wedge Top pattern. This would still leave some doubt about whether the rally was over, as it would leave this termination pattern intact, but would then be setting up a sloping H&S pattern with a target top for the RS in the 1090 - 1095 area. I don't rate these sloping H&S patterns highly for reliability though.
The third target would be the October low in the 1020 - 1025 area. This would be the ideal target as it would break the other two key trendlines and set up for an H&S pattern with a target top for the RS of 1080 and an H&S target in the 940 area. One slight downside is that we would certainly need to break back through the lower trendline of the Broadening Ascending Wedge Top pattern to make the RS, but the RS would take another month to make and so we would be no more than re-testing the underside of the main rally trendline and should see an RS top in a tight range extending to about six days at the 1080 level which would give everyone plenty of time to optimise their short positions for the start of the third wave down.
Only opening and closing figures are important for these targets in my view, and we might of course just drop straight through all these levels if the impulse down is strong enough.
If we break 1020, then P2 top is in. Next down is 998-1000, then 980, and finally 950-955. Those all should produce nice bounces. It's all about the jobs number today. I'm looking for a small 38%-50% retracement backup... only if the jobs numbers come in under 500k. If they are over 520k, then I look for more selling. I also think that many of the big boys will sell on Friday as they don't want to be long over the weekend. At least not at this high levels.
I'm missing the open today, which is a shame, as it looks like there might be a gap up which would most likely fill, but I'm leaving an ES order to play a bounce at the 1069 - 1074 level.
10/21 is the Golden Mean extension by Lucas Waves of two key lows, explained herein:
http://siliconinvestor.advfn.com/readmsg.aspx?m...
The DEC crude contract in particular still looks pretty good, working a bull flag a bit higher. The DEC gold contract is also fairly resilient (though slightly less so), but it looks like the action over the past several weeks is shaping into a sloppy diamond.
I'd be curious to hear your thoughts, b.
I think that you have to watch the early morning (after Europe opens) to get a better feel for things ... most of the market is focused on the Euro / USD ... as an example remember that whipsaw this morning at the open (even though futures pointed down) ?
fwiw ... China GDP was 9% and so far there is little reaction on the Hang Seng (numbers came in as predicted) ... but if the ES breaks 1071 I will be watching closely to see if anyone steps in to hold up prices ...
-----------------------------
posted too soon about China ... HSI down nearly 300 now ...
"She loves me"
"Pick....Pick....Pick"
"She loves me not"
"Pick....Pick.....Pick"
"She loves me"
"Pick....Pick....Pick...Pick"
"She ....She....She..."
Damn Miner....lost count.....
TZA - Out @ 11.791 (+0.78). Should have Bought more of them...
Obviously a huge close, way bigger than anything we've seen in a while.
Did you have 1000 shares?
Keep posting your entries as these are two of my favorites to trade. If I could short TNA I prob. wouldn't even look at TZA. It's just easier for me to long and short the same chart and not retool my brain for 1000 shares vs 5000 or 10,000 and all the nerves that come with $100 a penny.
TNA is pretty fib friendly if you draw that last high to low as a guide on a hourly chart the last two months.
Lets see how tomorrow plays out, but I think this can continue into the weekend...maybe even get a real big move on Monday or Tuesday?
Anyway...it is all mental masturbation at this point.....
Great trade so far Bear..... Have a great rest of the day
some feel that there will be a bounce off 1071 (most of them are e-wave counters) and then they expect an attempt at 1121 ... while I do not necessarily agree with them I am trading for the short term and I may cover tomorrow (unless it is a 100% red day) and look to re-position myself ...
btw ... my target on BAC is $15 ...
there is still a lot of work to do..... I may sell some puts/calls
against some of my positions if I see the need to hedge, but I feel as
though this time is different.....Trying to stay in the move for as
long as possible without getting emotional. Will use my a SMA
crossover on the hourly chart for help.....will also look to see how
the overall market is doing...we have not seen a down trend day in
some time........ Maybe due for one tomorrow/friday? Maybe we get a
quick move down with short term capitulation on a Monday large gap down?
BAC $15 is where I am looking for it to move to as well. Measured
move on the bear flag formation is about $15 and change...dont have
the charts in front of me right now, but somewhere around that area
In anycase, it is nice to be in the green and as Mr. Moo says, the
market is confirming my trade.
Will also look to see how Mrs. Brinkley looks and reacts to the action
over the coming days. She is one sharp cookie and great trader. If
we are due for a large or timely fall, I am pretty sure she will be
positioned for it.
Have a great one!!!
http://screencast.com/users/ChickNLittle/folder...
The thing that struck me (as I posted here) was that after the ES reversed @ 8% odds to go short, then reversed on an RL with 7% odds to go long, not very long after that it needed 100% odds to go long to reverse. I read that as very bearish.
[These were all Hourly odds.]
Good to see you TT...hope your banking coin.....
UPDATE--now IWM is down 0.16
GLD is up AH, fwiw.
"It just shows you how susceptible we are to bad news right now," said Stephen Massocca, managing director at Wedbush Morgan in San Francisco. "We've got such an extended stock market that a feather of news is enough to cascade it down 100 points."
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=130271191...
All over it on ZeroHedge also:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/dick-bove-stat...
And here:
http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/bespoke/
The Federal Reserve said its 12 district banks saw “stabilization or modest improvements” in many areas of the economy, led by housing and manufacturing, while all regions reported a weak or declining commercial real estate market.
http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2009/10/cracks-i...
Yeah, I've never been short naked options before, and I'm not really all that keen to start. Perhaps I'll buy a higher strike and make it a bear call spread.
Or just call the whole thing off. ;-)
can only go to zero. But there is no limit how high a stock can go so being
short a call is way scarier than being short the stock, imo, due to the
leverage if it goes against you.
I don't see 4.5 points of red. I see roughly 2.5 from the high of Oct 20 to
now. The FDA meeting ison the 27th. Don't panic yet. We can panic next
week.
I'm not panicked, I promise. Selling that much premium has a calming effect.
I also wonder how much of today's move was MMs hedging long-call positions with short stock. Just look at the OTM November call volume versus the puts. After yesterday's sell-the-news tape, I can't help but wonder if lots of folks are harvesting that upside premium and pushing the MMs (if they are the buyers of all of those calls) into delta-neutral with stock sales.
volume. Don't know how to tell if they are bought or sold though.
The scenario I have in mind involves options traders opening new short-call positions to capture the hefty premium on the right side of yesterday's selloff. The options MM who buys the calls has to hedge the position by shorting the underlying stock. With such heavy volume and a huge imbalance on the call side, I wonder if that hedging could have been a significant factor in today's HGSI price movement.
Just a theory, tho.
What I've been seeing are massive opens, or mid morning gap fill moves, then avg to low volume churn.
You'd have to drill into individual stocks to find the high day volume rally to close moves. I have a trader friend (http://theimpatienttrader.blogspot.com/) that used to use that as a criteria for holding overnight. A rush of buying in the last 15min. in particular the volume had to exceed the average volume on the day. He wanted to see 2-3 HUGE green bars on the 5min. chart to take a position into the next morning.
BTW, NVAX seems to be finally breaking out for real.
That minyanville link you posted was worth having a looking at.
Who knows, though. A nutty sector of the market however you slice it.
Sniper's usually got something interesting to say.
Building a short collection up here..... Will cut or hedge trade if the dollar breaks much below $75..or EUR/USD gets much above $1.5050.... It can go to 1.5250 if that happens. Went Short BAC yesterday...looks very weak... and a few others.... Now adding to collection... FAZ, TZA, SRS, SPY, RUT, FXP.... All puts/calls..... I hedged this am with the /ES @ 1090 - 1096... took some of the loss off...but unhedged now and added to positions. This is not a all or none trade....just see this as a great risk/reward trade up here.
I know this is somewhat of a trying to catch the top trade, and not recommended....but I feel the trade is to be a contrarian here.... Kinda of feel something brewing in my gut. Besides we have been trading in this range for a week now, and this is the top side...
We also have the EUR/USD at a major resistance level from the channel I posted yesterday and the /ES broke its channel yesterday....back up into it today but i feel as though the break yesterday was a tip of whats to come....
Key Level for the dollar to break on the upside is $75.70 IMO, A break from there and then we have $76 and .... Very Crowded trade and the exit doors are not large enough when the fire alarm goes off.....
I am stalking MGM on the long side however..... and will entertain any other long set ups if they should play out.
Have a great day everyone
Great trading for all....
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/weak-dollar...
Also lost money on SRZ yesterday......Did Rosa tell you?.....
I wonder how that sounds in Russian.
Chuck asked a question about precious metal stocks on the previous page and I haven't had time to address it yet. I suggested yesterday that since near-term it's impossible to know whether the group will forge higher or pull back more that new positions be built in stages, buying on dips. There has been a small (very short-term) head & shoulders-like pattern on the daily chart of GLD that raised the possibility of a move down into the gap. However, so far the sector hasn't given up much ground and it is entirely possible that the recent light consolidation is all we get for now. Waiting for more of a pull back could leave you out of the action altogether, which is why a phased-in strategy might be worth considering.
Are you in Argentina on business or pleasure?
I'm very reluctant to take new long trades here (except just added some calls to my SLW position) and afraid to short aggressively yet. Tried to short SPG which has been fave of mine to day trade but suddently find the shares are HTB on TOS. Bought some SRS instead. Stalking CDE for a re entry...oops there it goes..
come down and see what they can steal. Sometimes they get lucky but as a
realtor it is frustrating to have to educate buyers and placate sellers.
SLW looked particularly resilient to me during the recent PM retracement, and today's action seems to portend more great things to come.
Ah, to think if I had been a bit less trade happy a year ago when I started loading up on this baby.
Whoops, as I was typing ... new 52wk high!
I sleep 35 hours a week............. if I'm lucky.
I'd put ENER in that same boat.
watching BIOD
I got to post here! yay!
So far so good...
My DRV holding nice....
Same old crap. Until the selling becomes just as intense, this is the grind.
On a side note, my 195 Nov AAPL puts @ 4.20 were stopped out for -1.00 this AM... c'est la vie
No trades currently
Chinese GDP will be released today (after close of u.s. markets today and before open thurs).
Needless to say this report could have impact across multiple markets.
Bloomberg: China’s ‘Growth on Steroids’ Raises Danger of Renewed Slowdown
http://www.screencast.com/users/ahildret/folder...
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/comparing-...
If you believe either of the charts, doesn't seem to matter.
I've got a new account at TDAmeritrade with $6 flat commissions and unlimited shares and when I move my cash over my buying power will increase by nearly double. I'll probably spend the rest of this month doing that unless something goes big soon.
Incidentally, I did part one of the discussion on stops in the previous post. Don't know if you caught it, but you had expressed an interest.
I was the one that asked you about your STOP management strategy yesterday. I did not spot your response in a recent post. Is this even what you are referring to? Sorry if i sound a bit confused.
Thanks a bunch!
I'm not saying today is a grind, I'm generalizing it over the course of weeks and months. Take away these 15-30min buying spikes and it's been very hard for me doing pure day trading if you stick to the first 30 last 30 avoidance rule and no overnight holds. Remove the 15min super spikes and gaps since July and I'm left with figuring out how to trade what's left. I've still got the training wheels on you know. I'm not nimble enough to jump from stock to stock, sector to sector, or identify which sector is getting the early rotation in the first 30min of the market. I've tried to keep it simple. I used to trade several sectors and my only consistent success this year has been trading the ETFs using 1000-5000 share trades.
I have an extensive watch list but no alerts so I have manually scan all my charts. I have two monitors with 6 charts per page and 3 tabs per desktop. All my market indicators and quote tabs are on the right.
I just need a couple trades to go big for me like I catch in the sim and I will feel a whole lot better. I need to think more positive. I need to trust myself.
----
BTW today I had the pleasure of covering my short in oil at the exact bottom tick of that 5 minute bar. It feels great to be lucky than smart! Ended up positive shorting oil through out the day. Still have to work on my psych since I scratched a bunch of long trades right before they broke out on a day when the intra-day swing is more than 5% UP.
I bailed on my DTO yesterday for a 1pt gain on 5000 shares (sim trade of course).
Stopped out of HGSI (&*$%@!!)....
Edit: actually it was a 10% pop if you add a few days.
Takes time my friend....but your calls have been good.....FWIW
Making Chicken Wings for my bride tonight.....
( default student loans, because of lax entrance policies) I'll wait for $27
short ES @ 1093.75
not seeing a real edge in either direction yet except for range trade of +1 and -1 vwap
Nasdaq breadth just went negative in spite of AAPL and GOOG. OIH of its highs and near the previous high support of 131.0x.
I own BCRX from yesterday, but have shied away from MNKD due to it's wicked plunge two weeks ago.
Not to mention we got 4 consecutive gap up mornings this month to get us here.
I did receive your reply and a gap in the futures does make sense, as I don't see the gap on the S&P cash index
I always appreciate your feedback and insights, and I also do agree with you that oil may be staging a major breakout.....but I'm hoping to catch a bounce to around $14, or maybe less if this knife starts falling again!
Thank you again for taking the time to reply to me.
TZA - Small position @ $11.01. Will buy more if I can before 3:30pm EST around $10.9x. Stop 2% down (around LOD) or end of day.
edit: based on lower highs & lows on IWM & SPY, GS heading lower and lower.
Counter trend instincts. I actually feel really excited and upbeat having reacted to a price point, made a decisive decision with full size, immediately lost, didn't panic, set my target price, left the stop alone for the next target (which obviously didn't hit) and stopped out for profit.
BEE @ 2.18......
MSH tech index also failing on the underside of the 5yr trendline (TK posted about this before)
ULBI @ 4.32....this is a BIG knife......
Tried for RNN AGAIN @ .67...LOTTO....did not fill....
BIIB, BIIB chart
Ms. B, I noticed how you reversed course today. I am curious about the criterion you used to decide that a sell-off was imminent?
Was it the break of the 1092 level or something else?
Also, when the market is above previous swing highs and starts to get choppy you should be establishing short positions with stops. You should follow Dr Brett's tweets.
I've been watching your entries since you were regular on Slope, then decided to stop posting so much.
I do follow Dr. Brett and the internals. (http://twitter.com/aviat72/status/5049166325 )
Since Ms. Brinks has been long and strong since March I am curious to know how she makes the judgement call.
There was something unique today in terms of how the market reacted to the break of the support. I think the inability of the XLF to break out of the Island gap perhaps triggered some anxiety.
Still, many stocks persisted to hold big gains, and a mid-day consolidation and pull back off early highs was reasonable and not unexpected-- in fact it is often standard fare in preparation for a new advance. I think that for me, perhaps the strongest intraday "tell" was a persistent and relentless selling pressure that is almost more "felt" and "seen" in the stock and market action, than measurable in terms of actual price at first.
Essentially, the nature of the selling and pressure was different this time. It was at that point that I commented on the steady selling taking place and reiterated caution if long. But the inability for the market to make a higher high (or to at least avoid making lower highs) following the consolidation was also very key. Repeatedly the indices attempted to head up, but the selling coming in at those levels was relentless. And when the futures then formed bearish head & shoulders patterns, I was buying the short ETFs.
And then as Chuck points out, when all my stops are getting hit in concert-- it kind of grabs my attention as well. ; )
It is posts like these which help learn the Art of Trading.
I had also noticed the decline in the A/D lines and the negative market breadth, the inability of XLF to move above resistance and the persistence selling in GS. Unfortunately did not act on it (i.e. initiate new shorts); have seen too much bear traps to jump in on a day where the USD was in the dumps and oil on a tear.
It would help if you could elaborate a bit more on how you "feel" the selling. Are there specific signs you look for apart from the tells already discussed?
The charts will tell you what is or isn't going on.
MI, -2.5%
ERIC, -7%
T, +3.5%
EBAY (EBAY:$25.03,00$-0.03,00-0.12%) , -3.3%
TQNT, -19%
AMGN, -2.4%
BEXP, +4%
LOGI, +8%
HBAN, -2.5%
MCD, +2%
XRX, +2.5%
HTE, +33%
RODM, +5.5%
JCG, +9%
DOW, +1%
SDXC, +21%
FFIV, +9.5%
EMC (EMC:$17.51,00$-0.21,00-1.19%) , +1.5%
QLGC, +1%
AKNS, +3.5%
TEX, -7.5%
RNN, +11.5%
Rexahn Pharmaceuticals Rallies 11.5% on Positive Study Results for Cancer Drug Archexin 10/22 08:19 AM
RNN could go to $2 in a month.
It looks like it's going to be a great day in the neighborhood.
Grabbed BEE @ 2.18 and ULBI @ 4.32 prior to close...
http://www.streetinsider.com/Special+Reports/Mo...