-
Website
http://bluechipbulldog.blogspot.com/ -
Original page
http://bluechipbulldog.blogspot.com/2009/10/anatomy-of-sell-off.html -
Subscribe
All Comments -
Community
-
-
Top Commenters
-
Popular Threads
All Comments
That, my man....Is you.....
to complain about......good to hear that you are making time for
yourself.......this market is displaying extremely bullish
characteristics....one step down.... 3 higher......just keeps chugging
along.....though some individual names have gotten slaughtered pretty
ruthlessly.......
Wishing you the best,
/\shok
As for HGSI ... funny story. I still have the block I did the buy-write on, but yesterday I picked up more for the IRA south of 18. In an impulsive move not terribly justified by the action, I then sold it for a few dimes. The upside of the story is I rotated the proceeds into SLW. Considering how overweight I am already w/r/t PMs, sticking with the range trade on HGSI, which I even put on the record in this space, would have been a better idea.
Still learning, Di. ;-)
1710, plus or minus 0.005% (1718.55 to 1701.45)
1760 above
1660 below
20 SMA = 1727.29
50 SMA = 1694.67
terrific day going long and short on :
FAS, FAZ, GOLD, OIH, SLW
what a market. I expect /ES to visit 1052 area tomorrow and then we climb higher....If we breach 1052 area, then we go down further....
Hope everyone faired well today.
12.67% chance of seeing 1062 at the open, now about 27%
One of the things I’ve noticed working with my probabilities based on hourly and daily PnF average true range charts and price volume profile is there is a lack of emotive component factored in. I play the probabilities primarily, but sometimes a combination of selling climax, short-covering, a sense that shorts are having difficulties exiting their positions at desired price points along with other subjective factors that may enhance a squeeze can sqew the application of probabilities in real time trading decisions. fwiw
Interesting info re: probabilities... I'm not too familiar with the impulse of trades, are you referring to momentum?
I'd like to talk more about your probability analysis. Starting as a purely discretionary trader with little to no experience in programming, I'm seeking to one day create a systematic trading scheme, even if it is just based on historical statistical analysis. I'm very new at this, but have a few questions. Have you heard of or read Ralph Vince's Handbook of Portfolio Mathematics? Also, what other books are there on probability analysis?
I do play my simple probabilities, but I am not a math or programming person and couldn't teach you a thing; rather I would learn from you. I have never even read a book on probability analysis. Morrise sounds quite versed, though. Sorry about that, Pink.
hey, you don't need anything fancy as long as your method works!
Pink...when you are done...what area will be your focus? My brother is contract law (sports stuff).
practicing law at all. I'm actually vying for a position at a trading
firm... I originally entered law school expecting to practice law or
something of that nature, but found out that my true passion (and I
think calling) is to trade. I probably spend more time focusing on
the market, learning, and coming up with new trading ideas/ strategies
than I do with studying for school....
Shh, don't tell my profs!
Steenbarger. Of course, I'm not sure how accurate that number is now,
but it probably fluctuates with the volatility
http://screencast.com/t/N58Xly4ptAAv
http://screencast.com/t/hRlQ3YnHE
NQ
http://screencast.com/t/WR1EDoRHJ
NYA…McClellan
http://screencast.com/t/77Mv8KaU
NYA…A/D Line
http://screencast.com/t/3A0mCiQv4
On the PNF Indexes as well as the BPI’s nothing really changed ..The BPI’s got weaker and the NYA and NQ turned into “X”s…I put the NYA up for a reference to what today did to the indexes EMA’s..
A few Momentum indicators strengthened butttt caution is the name of the tune to play..A retrace into this downward move is normal but hard for me to trade….Anyway
…I got stopped on my FAZ today..made a few points and unless our charts turn up with strength I will look to re-enter…Bgt. and sld. the NYBOT(mini Russell) today for my first futures trade..took 4 pts. away on 5 contracts..Looks like a good start for me…
Out of pocket tomorrow..hope all do well
Glad I could help... I'm constantly learning too, and I think the probability analysis provides a better guage to determining one's bets and their sizes more than pure discretionary chart reading...
But alas, it is a never ending learning session! GL to ya
I want to second what ds2 said. I too am very appreciative of the probability analysis you've been posting the last few days. Please keep it up.
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB12568110756...
Caveat emptor. The options are wildly expensive for a reason.
EDIT 12.32 is my exit....for now....
"Financials were beaten up so badly going into it, their recovery might have been overdone. Investors tend to jump on the band wagon well beyond any equilibrium. It's the same way on the downside," said Doug Lockwood, chief investment officer at Cornerstone Wealth Management.
Caution longs, that gap may yet fill.
$SPX Monthly
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=M&yr=3&...
Nothing much to update tonight. Red.
I agree with your post. This correction "feels" a bit different. The selling looks relentless especially on an hourly and lower but then I back it out and we're still only around the 50 on the daily. That just goes to show the high levels we were. I've seen these kind of sell offs turn on a dime and really hurt some people so I'm extra cautious.
I'd like to see us build a little support to finish the week and have a weekend to digest.
fwiw though ... $NAMO has been this low only twice in the last 10 years (last time was Oct 2008) ... the $NYMO has been this low 4 times in the last 10 years (3 times since October 2008)
see you later ...
+1
I called it correctly (down) yesterday, shorted the pops, but when I look at the one minute candlestick chart, it looks like it is going up. Probably just me.
I didn't play today due to "other" reasons, and just drew my signals on the chart when I could and pretended to play. Didn't lose any money today, I guess.
The market is only tied to reality with a rubber band.
Hope everyone made some $$$ today.
"Barb Wire is notorious for sharp whipsaws and repeated losses for breakout traders. One good way to trade barb wire is to wait for a trend bar to break out of the pattern"
he goes on to recommend shorting one tick below the high of the 5 min bar break out and place two buy stops two ticks above your entry because the trade is bound to go 4 ticks or more in either direction. so your going to profit either way whether it's a failed break out or a true break out. This example is a with trend break out not against trend.
Best Regards
These stocks are WORTHLESS.
This will not end well for the bulls.
Cash for shit
8k for anybody who want's a home
GS in BED with the FED
RUN it up and sell it
3rd quarter reports BS
No REAL growth...unless out of USA
Piss on this market.....get some silver.....
Maybe a better idea is the Jan 42/39 put spread with almost a 3:1 risk reward but with a much higher probability of happening.....
I wasn't recommending it, just noting disproportionate volume at those strikes.
Need to do a bit more research tonight, but if I find the expectations too high, I may choose a straddle but I see upside ahead.
Buying foreign today. See more weakness in us$
IBN - Sold Nov 33 PUTs. Don't mind owning it for low $31s (it was 40 a week or so ago)
SNY - Bullish call spread. Earnings tomorrow
EWA - Bought @ $22.70
Btw, you just keep getting cuter with each passing day. ; )
range, which is totally doable
I asked Springheel about the interior trend line on Anna's blog. His response was that you considered it an interior TL but he was concerned with the 2 dominant lines from Nov. My question: Is the significance of the interior TL simply that it has so many touches and are there any special rules concerning interior TL vs any other kind?
What is important is how often this particular trendline has been obeyed-- the more touches over time, the more significance it carries.
The internals are too strong today for me to suggest otherwise
We need it brother....how is the channel?
I am still mildly long (no shorts positions in main trading account) ... everything looks good for the mild swing up today ... (but I expect a little shake out to the downside in front of lunch to shake out weak holders)
Left JAZZ @ 6.52....
http://hotoptionbabe.com/2009/10/29/thursday-ro...
Here it is, following on from the chart above:
I had a revelation last night when I was playing around with the SPX charts. I had been looking at the current situation as the following confusion of wedges and trendlines that I had been using to pick my way through the last few weeks:
http://www.screencast.com/users/springheel_jack...
However I extended the lower trendline we have been following back to last November and it became very clear that what we are really looking at is this:
http://www.screencast.com/users/springheel_jack...
Now on balance I'm still expecting a bounce from this key black lower trendline today, and if we break through it instead, then I may only have identified the key trendlines for this rally on the last day that they really meant something. Even in that event though, a retest at least of the lower black trendline as support turned resistance would still be likely. You can see that after the downward break in mid-June, there was such a retest of the trendline at the end of June.
If we do bounce today though, then these trendlines give us something very important indeed. Firstly they tell us why we topped at 1101 rather than the 1110 - 1120 I had been expecting, as it shows that the Broadening Ascending Wedge Top Pattern that SPX had seemed to be following in recent weeks was only a partial snapshot of a much larger and more important pattern, and that the top channel line had therefore been placed mistakenly high. More importantly though, it tells us the most likely location of the top of the next wave up if we do bounce, which should be in the 1110 - 1130 area depending on how fast we rally to get there. Nearer the time it would be possible to narrow that to a range of just a few points of course.
fwiw ... I am treating the recent high as a "wave C in primary 2" ... expecting the long discussed P3 here ... over at stockcharts there is quite a bit of disagreement about this reading but I am generally going with my gut here ...
looks like Anna is following Tim with guest blog posts ...
In the interim though, we are retesting the broken 1050.5 lower trendline for the rally right now. if we get through that, then there is another potential ceiling at the 1075 - 1080 level I think. After that , we start thinking about new high targets for the wave.
http://tinyurl.com/ygz4mxr
I completely agree about higher high comment ... the Y area on the chart looks like a reset though with the recent trend break ... (I am not an well educated e-waver)
There is also a possibility of an extension wave though, even if C has finished. kemal_1 was talking about it yesterday.
I don't see that declining trendline being broken with confidence & if we do make a new high, I think it will be the last before a correction of real significance.
currently the USD is pulled back a bit (Yen is the loser this morning among the USD, Yen, Euro triad) ... so I am looking for a parallel up move in the volatility indexes (VIX, VXN, RVX) and for something to lead the counter move up and confirm a real bounce ... ideally I am looking for a move back towards 1060 to 1070 by the $SPX over the next few days to get short again (what a dreamer I am) ...
for clues about the market today ... I am watching the $TNX in particular because if it holds its gains then that bodes well for continued upside and follow through by financial areas ... I am mildly long from yesterday afternoon and I have a core position in the TNA ...
Nobody really seems to care about sustainable prosperity nowadays in any case. All we have is a series of short term fixes stitched together into a caricature of a long term plan.
Some interesting news so far this AM... let's see what Geitner says @ the open. Anyway, here are today's calculated probabilities for certain ES pivots:
1067.83 = 5.74%
1053.17 = 33.78%
1045.58 = 64.20%
1030.92 = 62.04%
1023.33 = 31.91%
1062 (prior pp) = 12.67%
Nothing screams a good target either way, long/short. Here is a recent Markep Profile chart http://www.charthub.com/png.php?png=2009/10/29/...
validity of these probabilities
http://screencast.com/t/hxFRNBGcJOz
S&P..showed the BPI,”O”s and PNF recently..not a sell signal yet just “O”s but look at the EMA’s and MACD
http://screencast.com/t/WUuT12Qp
http://screencast.com/t/yhPlSgsC4e
http://screencast.com/t/0inlfbwFS
NYA..I only show the EMA’s etc. because the BPI and PNF charts are the same as the other indexes and what I posted recently..
http://screencast.com/t/SlCvu4SP6g
no need to show details of other indexes they all look the same..
Wednesday’s market wasn’t particularly kind to individual stocks. The Dow was down 120 points as well, but for stocks it was actually a bit worse as there were more than 8 stocks down for every single "advancer" on the day -. As a result, the indexes Bullish Percent one was down over 3.5% on the day and that was enough to effectively push these indicators “over the edge” and into a column of O’s on their respective charts., The bottom line is that “Supply” is back leading the field and that suggests heightened risk in the market. BPI’s don’t measure or indicate what levels these mkt. indexes will go to, you must refer to your charts for that. Buttttt, What we know right now is that this shift from demand to supply suggests that the risk has heightened and has been a very good indicator of tops getting into place or actually being in. Caution is indicated as well as a defense posture for our trades and positions.
The NYSE Percent of Stocks Above Their 10 Week Moving Average had a sharp decline this past week, dropping from 76.2% down to 53.6%. This decline has now taken this short-term indicator below its recent October chart lows at 58%. This is the second straight sell signal on its chart and this latest one follows a lower top as well. That lower top came despite a new rally high in the markets in October. The last reversal down and decline in the NYSE Bullish Percent, which came in June and July, saw the Percent Above 10 Week drop to 32% on its chart, close to the oversold level at 30%. We will see what this indicator does this time but for now it is on a sell signal and is negative.
The NYSE High-Low Index was down on a week-to-week basis as it fell to 96.9%. That is down from last week’s reading of 98.8% but it remains at very high levels. However, the move below 97% is the first in this indicator since August 28th, two months ago. A reading of 92% is necessary for this to reverse into O’s but the High-Low would have to decline to 68% to give a sell signal. However, with the NYSE Percent Above 10 Week already on a sell signal and the NYSE Bullish Percent reversing down, a reversal here would be yet another sign of caution on a short term basis.
The NYSE Percent of Stocks Above Their 30 Week Moving Average falls from 90.7% to 84.2% and this was enough for a reversal down into O’s on the chart to 88% and then another O at 86%. This reversal down is certainly a warning sign that things are extended and acting a bit top heavy here.
These are breadth indicators, my friends, and you will get the same sense if we look at the momentum indicators…Anyway…….
http://www.cnbc.com/id/33507152
sounds a lot like a capitulation LOW, spot-on!
YEEE ... HAAA ... !!!
Very risky. Potentially very profitable as well. If we bounce and there is no further downside from yesterday's low in the broader market (implying that USD will fall ) then this might be the sale of the century. BUT, if the USD$ continues to rally, I am afraid the PMs will suffer greatly. As Mrs. B. says, just look at KGC, the rest of the miners will follow in suit.
Given the character change in how this selling is taking place I would have urge great caution in entering the PMs today as a buy point. Maybe a day trade, but certainly not a swing trade. I need to see some basing, but if the USD drops as fast as its lifting then we could easily see a reversal in the PM selloff.
It's never easy and it takes a lot of faith and courage to trade a bull market in gold/silver.
My core PM position is back to it's minimum size. Be careful.
no further downside from yesterday's low in the broader market (implying
that USD will fall ) then this might be the sale of the century. BUT, if the
USD$ continues to rally, I am afraid the PMs will suffer greatly. As Mrs. B.
says, just look at KGC, the rest of the miners will follow in suit.
Given the character change in how this selling is taking place I would have
urge great caution in entering the PMs today as a buy point. Maybe a day
trade, but certainly not a swing trade. I need to see some basing, but if
the USD drops as fast as its lifting then we could easily see a reversal in
the PM selloff.
It's never easy and it takes a lot of faith and courage to trade a bull
market in gold/silver.
My core PM position is back to it's minimum size. Be careful.
Futures approx. BO
Daily Range Projection Low High
/ES 1025.75 1050.75
SPX 1031.92 1052.95
/NQ 1655.75 1700.75
NDX 1661 1700.94
http://www.businessinsider.com/are-law-professo...
;/
On another note, watch today folks. If we can't start and end strong it will be very telling.
Protect your profit and cash.....
@13.89 from yesterday and want to buy more today IF>
Sold most longs......only a small position in NCS....
Thanks Ms B......
10/28/2009 YOU BOUGHT
DPTR DELTA PETE CORP COM NEW
Cash Shares: +1,305.000 Price: $1.28 Amount: -$1,678.40
S @ 3.19.....day only....
JAZZ @ 6.42.....
Short BDX at 67.97. Tight stop just over trend line.
OUtta here....good luck people.
I'm going long the Nov FSLR 130 Calls with a short leash. Getting on the side of the MM. No way they take on this much supply without trying to claw some back. Basically, the BIDU playbook.
10/28/2009 YOU BOUGHT
CUZ COUSINS PPTYS INC
Cash Shares: +1,000.000 Price: $7.27 Amount: -$7,278.00
EWA (Australia ETF) - Bought some @ $22.7, will buy more at $22.5. Stop yesterday's low of 22.3. Aim to sell next two weeks for 5%+ higher.
I didn't post my trades on here today, but everything on Twitter. I would have liked to hold onto one runner for a run @ 1060, but I'll take my profits
I am going to watch the tape for a while ... nothing special on my radar yet ... although shorting BIDU is getting tempting ("not gonna do it ... wouldn't be prudent" ... in Dana Carvey voice) ...
although I may scalp a couple of things just to test the waters during the lunch time blues period ...
How many people do you know...no job?
How many people are buying....letting the house go?
Do you know anybody that did "Cash for Shit"?
If they gave YOU 8K grand would you spend it on your house?
Buy order in on TZA @ 13.12.....
Buy order on TZA @ 13.12
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D421N6xlisg
Oh, and the Giants lost
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D421N6xlisg
Oh, and the Giants lost
Brought to you by the letter "Q"
ARNA @ 3.78.....
"1067.83 = 5.74%
1053.17 = 33.78%
1045.58 = 64.20%
1030.92 = 62.04%
1023.33 = 31.91%
1062 (prior pp) = 12.67%"
Who woulda thunk that the 12.67% chance of touching trade would have almost been hit? I think I need to start calculating probabilities for the pre-market info as well to get better readings. Then I can compare the two....
http://screencast.com/t/HTztljEDj
EXECUTIONS FOR THIS TRADE
Date Time Price Quantity Total
10/29/2009 02:42:02 PM $13.12 1,000.000 $13,120.00
NET TOTAL 1,000.000 $13,120.00
Watching us$ carefully - /E7 has been rising steadily since yesterday's lows. Till this trend reverses, no TZA for me.
Left ARNA @ 3.86....scalp
TZA @ 13.01
buy order was cancelled earlier....mental stop @ 12.95
Gambling is more like it...
made some nice coins.
avg. 13.07
I have to wonder how much selling we will see tomorrow (end of month) ... but I am going with the odds considering the recent draw down ... while volatility pulled back the USD held firm today (did not cave) ...
have a good afternoon ... I am going to have a late lunch
I might be a buyer of any weakness at the open. The following chart shows the analog of Sep-Oct. To my surprise it is almost exactly lock step. It all suggests that the cycle low was put in and we are on our way to 1130. The past two rallies off of the cycle low were strong and fast and I wouldn't expect this to be different (if it follows)
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=60&yr=0...
PS....One major difference is the launch off of the cycle low. Is it a bull trap? Let's see.
(-) CIT (-7%) tumbles on report that bankruptcy filing looms.
(-) NVTL (-18%) continues extended-hours gain after
(-) ALU (-7.6%) loss widens.
UPSIDE MOVERS
(+) LVS (+7.4%) continues extended-hours gain after surprise profit.
(+) GNW (+14.5%) continues extended-hours gain after Q3 beat.
(+) CVX (+0.7%) beats with Q3 EPS, revs shy.
(+) LYG (+2.8%) gains on report of capital plan, upgrade.
(+) WPTE (+39%) gets raised offer to $1.77 per share cash, stock.
(+) VVUS (+8.6%) gains on more positive study data for obesity drug.
(+) SXE (+8.6%) reports Q2 results that top year ago, beat Street.
(+) MSTR (+11.3%) beats with Q3 results.
(+) EL (+7.4%) beats with Q1, hikes FY guidance.
(+) DUK (+0.2) bets earnings expectations.
(+) CVH (+0.7%) beats with Q3 EPS, raises view.